八分鐘講完殘載與彈性（短片版）/ Residual Load and Flexibility in 8 Minutes (with a Short Film!)
關於新電力系統的基本認識/ Basics You Need to Know about the New Power System
近日我製出介紹殘載和彈性等21世紀新電力系統基本概念的介紹影片，還請大家多多支持。
So I made a short film to introduce the basic concepts of residual load and flexibility, the two main concepts one needs to know to understand how the power system works in the 21st century. Help spread and support my works if you really like them.
在影片製作過程中，我複習了許多資料。Fraunhofer在2009年提出的殘載報告應該是其中最有趣的一份。
During the making of the film, I revisited many materials. This Fraunhofer report on residual load in 2009 is perhaps the most interesting.
那時，德國國內正在激辯「基載」是否必要，而核能是否能和再生能源良好搭配（Craig Morris 之前針對這段歷史作了詳足介紹）。
Back then, the Germans were in a debate whether "baseload" was necessary and whether nuclear can coexist with renewables well (Craig Morris had a detailed depiction on this topic).
Fraunhofer的報告給了再生能源支持者一個嶄新的視野。它極有可能是第一個提出殘載這個觀念的報告，也清楚表達了再生能源大量併網後，電力系統真正需要的是彈性能力強的互補，而「基載」正是最不符合這種互補的調度概念。
The Fraunhofer report gave the renewable supporters a new insight. It was perhaps the very first report to introduce the concept of residual load, and made clear that renewables need flexible complement in the power system, which is anything but baseload.
另外一個有趣的事情是，報告實際上預測了未來將會發生的事情：過多的基載藉著進出口交易和抽蓄水力，持續苟延殘喘。進出口提供了本應由裝置容量配比改變達成的彈性要求。
More interesting, the report actually predicted what would happen in the future. More than needed baseload power plants have managed to remain online partly due to export/import and pump storage systems. They provided the flexibility which otherwise would have to be achieved by increasing the capacity share of flexibility conventional power plants.
（我想好心提醒能源轉型懷疑論者：這張圖其實說明「德國需要鄰國進出口電力以維持必不可少的基載運轉」純粹是因果關係錯置。）
(I want to kindly remind energy transition skeptics: this graph shows that claiming “Germany needs its neighbor so it can run its indispensable baseload” is simply putting the cart before the horse.)
十年過去了；現在德國的能源學者不再爭議殘載之觀念，以及提升電力系統彈性能力之必要性。
It has been almost ten years; few energy experts in Germany now argue about the notion of residual load and the need for more flexibility in the power system.
這個系統當然並非完美；正如Fraunhofer所預測的，因為德國得以和歐陸鄰國持續進出口電力，褐煤和核能機組得以持續發出過剩電力。但至少現今的討論和焦點已經落在正確的道路上，一條通往由再生能源主導的能源系統的道路。
The system is of course far from perfect; because of abundant trading with neighbor nations, the brown coal and nuclear power plants get to produce more than enough electricity, as Fraunhofer predicted. But at least the discussion and the focus of the industries are now on the right track, the track towards an energy system powered predominately with renewables.
過去十年這樣聚焦的轉變似乎已經非常劇烈了，然而當我們從2009年再回看個十年，討論焦點的轉型就更加令人震驚。
The focus among the energy community might already seem to change abruptly in the last decade. But if we go back ten years earlier from 2009, the transition of the discussion was more surprising:
曾經，我們擔心當風能超過電力需求5%時會發生甚麼事情。接著我們擔心接近10%的時候，系統是否還能因應？幾年後，我們說20%肯定是絕對的極限！然而在2016年，丹麥的風能機群在一年的317小時當中，生產了超過國內需求的電力，而我們卻早已習以為常。
We were once afraid of what would happen when wind energy generation reached 5% of the total consumption. We then worried about approaching 10%－would the system be able to cope? Some years later, we said that 20% had to be the absolute limit! However, in 2016, Danish wind turbines produced more than the total electricity consumption for 317h of the year, and we barely give this any thought.
~Peter Jørgensen, Vice President Associated Activities, Energinet.dk
法國能源專家Thibault Laconde曾在一篇極佳的文章中指出德國能源轉型對於全球能源轉型進城的貢獻：
French energy expert Thibault Laconde once wrote an excellent article of the contribution of Energiewende to the global energy transition:
對我來說，我們至少可以同意一件德國能源轉型的貢獻：它替我們開出一條康莊大道。當我還是一個Supélec的學生時，我們被教導沒有一個電網能支持超過2%的間歇性能源。10年之後，太陽能和風能已經佔德國發電近1/3（注），有時更直逼80%...
It seems to me, however, that we could agree on at least one merit of the German energy transition: it has opened the way. When I was a student at Supélec we learned that no electricity network could support more than 2% intermittent energy. Ten years later, solar and wind power represent almost a third (note) of the German electricity mix, sometimes with incursions up to 80% …
注：1/4可能是目前比較接近的數據。但這無關宏旨。
Note: One fourth might be a more accurate figure right now. But this matters little to what he is trying to say.
而德國的故事仍持續指引著人們。今天，當台灣的懷疑論者持續提出諸如「台灣風能機群半小時內電力輸出一起從100%降到0%該怎麼辦？」這種對再生能源調度很原始的想像、或者持續提出「基載謬誤」的時候，我總會想起1999年到2009年這段期間德國能源轉型的討論，當然還有目前世界其他地方類似的討論。
And it still is opening the way. Today when some energy transition skeptics challenge us with primitive questions like “what would happen if all the offshore wind turbines in Taiwan lose all of their power in half an hour?” or repeat the baseload fallacy again and again in Taiwan, I would always think of the 1999 and 2009 energy discussions in Germany, among other similar debates going on right now.
我終於意識到，就算懷疑論者的說詞自古以來（也將永遠）如此地雷同，在這個世界上沒有任何地方，他們得以真正因此阻擋住朝向再生能源的潮流。從。來。沒。有。
I came to realize that, even though throughout the world, the lines of the skeptics have always been (and will always be) the same, no place in the world have those skeptics really managed to stop the transition towards renewables. Never. Ever.
所以每次遇到電力魔人時，被激怒當然是正常的。
So it is okay to be annoyed whenever we encounter another Mr. Catcha.
然而，我們永遠應該先退後一步，看看自第一支現代風能機組和太陽能板併網以來，世界已經前進了多少。這將帶給我們希望和力量，在台灣的能源政策路線最後且決定性的一戰中持續投入。
However, we should always take a step back and see how much has been done since the very first modern wind turbines and solar panels were developed. That will give us hope and strength to fight our last battle with the skeptics before settling the course of Taiwan’s energy policy once and for all.
