RSR TA Sunday — Edition 13
Happy Sunday Rangers! Since testing $0.10 last week, we’ve experienced sideways and down consolidation between $0.07 and $0.09 as expected, with some brief drops below the $0.07 level. As mentioned in last week’s Sunday TA, entries below $0.07 would be gifts from the Reserve gods — which seems to have materialized as we are holding strong above $0.08 as of this writing.
This was a relatively quiet week for Reserve and really the crypto ecosystem in general. A bit too quiet, if you ask me…Abril is Coming?? I think we are seeing some end-of-quarter rebalancing among institutions, which makes sense given an allocation of 5% at the beginning of the year is now probably something more like 10% (or depending on the other 95% of the portfolio, could be something like 15%+). Naturally, given the position would be in profit, we would see some kind of sell-off as these larger holders of bitcoin take profit to rebalance their allocations. This of course affects the wider crypto market, including RSR, where algos will take the opportunity to sell-off positions as well. I believe we saw this repositioning play out last week and the coming week (which includes March monthly close) will prove to be a reversal of trends from the past several days.
In either case, it is unfortunately unlikely we reach the bullish targets from last week of around $0.12, however I do think we see this happen in April. Although we hit the downside targets I was looking at, the bounce wasn’t as strong as I expected given some of the macro headwinds and end-of-quarter rebalancing. Something to remember to watch out for in June as we’re wrapping up Q2. I’d be looking for some further sideways action/consolidation as we close March given the lower weekly close, which should open us up to a strong start in April during the first or second week, retesting and likely breaking through the $0.10 barrier. In either case, as we’ll likely publish a quick mid-week update for the monthly close, it is fair to say that the monthly chart will continue to look incredibly bullish.
Looking into April, an historically strong month for crypto, I think we will see expansion of the Reserve service as well as the first glimpses into user data from the team. More on April predictions when we cover the monthly close on Wednesday.
Technical Analysis — week of March 28th
Weekly Timeframe — USDT Pair
We continue to play between a channel shown below, where the $0.070 level has served as a point of both resistance and support, where we’ve now seen two weeks of closures above and intra-week price action only briefly dipping below this area, which would have marked great buy opportunities for anyone looking for entries in the last few days.
Another notable point here is the 21 Week EMA now above $0.05 for the first time — another point of interest, although we did dip briefly below here after the September run-up, only to quickly recover at the bottom end of our macro cycle channel.
Simply represented below, I think we potentially consolidate down or sideways in the next week or so (at least through mid-week / monthly close) and bounce off the side of the channel forming on daily closes, where we would tee up our run to retest and break through $0.10 and head toward our previous targets of $0.12 and likely beyond into the $0.15 — $0.18 region on the bullish end of the spectrum. Viva la Abril!
Daily Timeframe — USDT Pair
Daily Timeframe — BTC Pair
I love how this chart is shaping up, a nice slow curve up toward another retest of 160 which we have been battling sporadically for weeks now. This is the longest we have been in the 130–160 “channel break” area, which is also significant. I do think if we continue higher we can quickly move to “Channel 3” into the 185 sat range at which point we could test the upper end of the range before price discovery, at the 230–250 level.
A significant portion of this is contingent on bitcoin’s performance of course, but if we are to reach the levels shown above we will inevitably need to test the range of sats shown below (unlikely bitcoin 3x’s by May). From a technical perspective, RSR is looking better and better on the daily though. The bottom of “Channel 1” resolves in late May as well, which would be the downside if we were to break down from the current “Channel 2”. This would be around 100 sats, though I think it’s much more likely we break higher above 160 to 185 than lower at this point.
Previous Editions of RSR TA Sunday
Edition 12 — March 21st, 2021
Edition 11 — March 14th, 2021
Edition 10 — March 7th, 2021
February 2021
January 2021
DISCLAIMER: “TA Sunday” is for entertainment and informational purposes only and is not meant to be construed as financial advice of any kind. All investments carry risks.
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