Could 2020 US Census data help any schools in conference realignment?
The US Census Bureau released data from the latest census last week, and it comes just in time for several schools to add it to their conference realignment campaigns.
There are so many factors that can make a school attractive to a conference — a large fan base, strong TV numbers, AAU status — that demographics aren’t going to make or break any team’s chances to jump to a better league. But as conferences make these long-term decisions, it’s worth at least looking at how this country’s population is moving.
The big takeaway from this census is that people are moving south and west. Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia each lost a seat in the House of Representatives based on these results, while Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina and Oregon each gained a seat, and Texas gained two.
The three fastest-growing states since 2010, percentage-wise, are Utah (18.37 percent), Idaho (17.32 percent) and Texas (15.91 percent). The three states that saw their populations drop since 2010 are West Virginia (-3.2 percent), Mississippi (-0.2 percent) and Illinois (-0.1 percent).
Quick disclaimer: When looking at percentages, remember that smaller states and cities will see larger percentages, positive or negative, than larger states and cities. For example, Utah gained 507,731 people while Texas gained just under 4 million, but Utah’s growth percentage was higher than Texas’ growth percentage.
It just so happens that many of the schools immersed in conference realignment rumors reside in these states. So let’s take a closer look at the numbers.
Schools in growing areas
Two of the most-talked-about Big 12 candidates hail from the two fastest-growing states.
BYU, which already has a national following, plays in the country’s fastest-growing state and just 32 miles from one of the country’s fastest growing cities: South Jordan, Utah.
Boise State, which already commands more TV revenue than its Mountain West counterparts, plays in the country’s second fastest-growing state. Meridian, Idaho, a Boise suburb located 11 miles from the city, is among the country’s fastest growing cities. And Boise itself grew by more than 20,000 people.
The Big 12 could look west at one or both of these schools as a growth investment.
The Big 12 could also look east, specifically at the Sunshine State. Florida, already the country’s third-most-populated state, is the eighth fastest-growing state (up 14.56 percent).
Much of Florida’s growth came in the central part of the state, where UCF resides. The Orlando-Kissimmee metropolitan area is the ninth-fastest growing metropolitan area in the country, and The Villages area— 58 miles from Orlando — is the fastest-growing metropolitan area in the country.
That’s another strong selling point for a football program that has already been knocking on the Power 5 door thanks to success on the field.
UCF’s arch rival, USF, can also point to strong population growth. Tampa and St. Petersburg, the flagship cities of the Tampa Bay area, added more than 68,000 people since 2010.
And let’s not forget about the state of Texas, which has grown by nearly 4 million people since 2010. It’s the second-biggest state in the country and home to four of the 10 fastest-growing cities in the country.
That’s a fact that Texas Tech, Baylor and TCU can all point to as they try to get the Pac-12’s attention. It’s also something Houston and SMU can point to if the Big 12 is open to adding more schools in the Lone Star State.
Schools in shrinking or slow-growing areas
The one school that shouldn’t include any census data in its campaign materials is West Virginia.
The Mountain State was one of just three that lost population since 2010, and the only one that shrunk by more than 1 percent. Five of the 10 fastest shrinking metropolitan areas are at least partially located in West Virginia.
The city of Memphis also saw a small decrease in population since 2010, by a little more than 1,000 people, though the state of Tennessee grew by more than 9 percent.
The city of Cincinnati grew by about a little more than 10,000 people since 2010, but the state of Ohio ranked as the third slowest-growing state at 2.3 percent (Connecticut and Michigan were the two lowest at 0.9 and 2.0 percent, respectively).
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