If the SEC adds Texas and Oklahoma, what should the Big Ten do?
Conference realignment is back!
A few months ago, I wrote about a bunch of conference changes going on at the FCS level that have largely flown under the radar. But this week’s news that Texas and Oklahoma could be joining the SEC certainly won’t fly under anyone’s radar.
According to several reports, the move is close to a done deal.
When it happens, it will push the SEC past the Big Ten as the richest conference in America in the next round of TV deals. That’s sure to stir up speculation that the Big Ten should expand.
So what should the Big Ten do? There are a bunch of possibilities, but after going through them, I think the best choice is probably just to stand pat.
Remember that any additions to any conference need to bring enough revenue to justify splitting the revenue pie with yet another school.
Texas and Oklahoma are two of the biggest brands in college football (and all of college sports) and have national followings. Those are the types of schools networks pony up big money for, so it’s pretty much guaranteed that every SEC school will come out ahead in the next TV deal even though they’ll be splitting the revenue by 16 schools instead of 14.
When looking at the Big Ten’s options, there are very few that would bring enough value to justify the additions.
Notre Dame
The dream scenario for the Big Ten would be to add Notre Dame.
The Fighting Irish have the most recognizable brand in college football, fit within the league’s existing geographic footprint, and are successful at many other sports. The school is also well-regarded academically, which matters to the Big Ten.
Adding Notre Dame would be a game-changing addition that would push the Big Ten back to the top, but the Fighting Irish seem perfectly content with their cushy deal as an independent for football and an ACC member for other sports. (Notre Dame is a Big Ten member for one sport, though: Hockey.)
There’s also some resentment between Notre Dame and the Big Ten, as the league rejected the school three times between 1895 and 1926, and the school rejected the league twice in the 90s.
Most of the people involved in those decisions aren’t around anymore, but it still seems like a long shot that the two sides would come to a deal now. Even if Notre Dame were interested, there would be a bunch of legal issues to work through to get out of the ACC.
Expanding to the west
With Texas and Oklahoma leaving the Big 12, the remaining Big 12 schools will likely look to jump to another conference. A few of those schools would be geographic and cultural fits for the Big Ten, but would any of them bring enough value?
Kansas would add a national men’s basketball brand and a foothold in the Kansas City market. But football ultimately drives the bus, and the Jayhawks football team hasn’t finished with a winning record since 2008.
Iowa State has a top-10 caliber football team right now, but the Cyclones are hardly a national brand. Plus, the most popular team in the Hawkeye State already plays in the Big Ten.
Kansas State has never finished in the top 5 of the AP football poll, has little history of success in any other sport, and the Wildcats’ brand isn’t a known commodity outside of the nation’s 35th-most-populated state.
Both Kansas and Iowa State are members of the prestigious Association of American Universities (AAU). Kansas State is not.
Kansas or Iowa State could make a good 16th team if Notre Dame were the 15th, but they probably don’t bring enough value on their own. Kansas State, meanwhile, is a total non-starter.
Expanding to the east
The Big Ten’s most recent expansion came in 2014, bringing in Maryland and Rutgers to establish a presence in the New York City, Philadelphia, Baltimore and Washington, D.C. markets.
If the league wanted to continue expanding on the east coast, schools like Virginia, North Carolina or Duke would provide academic prestige and quality basketball programs. But none of them have a significant football following.
Syracuse has a good men’s basketball program and would grow the league’s foothold in the New York market, but the Orange also don’t have a significant football following.
Georgia Tech is an AAU school in a major market (Atlanta), but the Yellow Jackets would be a geographic outlier.
None of these options jump off the page, and neither do any options within the Big Ten’s existing geographic footprint, like Pitt or Cincinnati.
The league could try going after one or both of the northernmost SEC schools — Mizzou and Kentucky — which would both be better geographic fits in the Big Ten than the SEC. But neither school has a national football following and it’s unlikely either would want to leave the stability of the SEC.
California expansion?
If the Big Ten wants to make a radical move, the ship has likely sailed on inviting Texas or Oklahoma.
The next major brand to go after would be USC, which might have wandering eyes as the Pac-12 struggles to keep up financially with the other Power 5 leagues. The Trojans could be paired up with UCLA or Stanford as a travel partner.
All three of those schools are AAU members and have long histories of success in multiple sports. But having 14 schools in the northeast/midwest and two schools on the west coast would present a variety of logistical issues. It’s one thing for Rutgers and Nebraska to be in the same league, it’s a whole other thing for Michigan State and UCLA to be in the same league.
This would be the boldest move, and it would probably generate enough revenue to make sense financially. But I don’t know that it makes each school enough extra revenue to make up for the headaches it would bring.
The Big Ten has plenty of options. But unless Notre Dame comes knocking, the best option is probably just to stand pat. All 14 members will still make plenty of money in the next TV deal, even if it’s a few million dollars less than each SEC schools will make.
