A Deeper Look at the Potential 2025 Boston Marathon Cut-Off Time
Some additional questions and some additional data
On Monday, the registration period for the 2025 Boston Marathon begins. There has been a lot of speculation about what the cut-off time will be for this year’s race.
Last year, there was a record number of applicants and this led to a high cut-off time (5:29). Since then, most signs point towards an even larger number of applicants — and a higher cut-off time.
A week ago, I published an article that used a large dataset to come to a prediction of a 7:03 cut-off time. Others have predicted a similar cut-off time using other datasets and other methods.
In the meantime, I’ve gotten some great feedback, engaged in some deep discussions around the data, and re-examined some things. Although my general prediction hasn’t changed, I’ve looked at the problem from a few new angles.
Since we won’t know the actual cut-off time for a few more weeks, I thought it would be interesting to share some of these insights with additional data.
