Brexit Deal Rejected by UK Parliament: What Happens Now?
The latest vote on the UK’s departure from the European Union made history. Just not in the way that UK Prime Minister Theresa May was hoping.
May saw her proposed agreement for the UK’s separation from the EU go down in a stunning and historic defeat yesterday.
Following multiple days of heated debate in Parliament on what may be the most contentious political issue the UK has experienced since 1945, MPs overwhelmingly rejected May’s Brexit deal by a vote, 432 to 202.
It was no secret that May was expected to lose the vote. Still, losing by 230 votes is a startling outcome and is the biggest defeat by a British government in the modern democratic era. (The previous record was held by Ramsay MacDonald whose minority Labour government was defeated by 166 votes in 1924.)
“It is clear that the House does not support this deal. But tonight’s vote tells us nothing about what it does support. Nothing about how — or even if — it intends to honour the decision the British people took in a referendum Parliament decided to hold,” said May in the House of Commons immediately following the results.
EU Position
So what’s the EU likely going to do about the vote outcome?
For the time being, nothing.
While the EU has a vested interest in the outcome, it’s up to the UK government to take the lead, and ask any further discussions on the divorce deal.
But don’t expect the EU to be warmly receptive to the prospect of reopening negotiations.
European leaders have repeatedly stated that the Brexit deal put forward is the “only one possible,” and that they wouldn’t restart negotiations if British lawmakers voted it down.
Immediately following defeat of the deal yesterday, Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European Commission, reaffirmed the EU’s belief that the agreement is the best option available.
“The Withdrawal Agreement is a fair compromise and the best possible deal. It is the only way to ensure an orderly withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union,” said Juncker in a statement. “The risk of a disorderly withdrawal of the United Kingdom has increased with this evening’s vote. I urge the United Kingdom to clarify its intentions as soon as possible. Time is almost up.”
Reaction from Business Groups
Unsurprisingly, UK business leaders expressed their dismay with the outcome of the vote and concern about the potential of leaving the EU without a deal in place.
“The UK is due to leave the EU in just ten weeks, and yet businesses still have no idea what kind of circumstances they should prepare for,” said Mike Cherry, chairman of the Federation of Small Businesses, in a press release.
“Small business confidence has plummeted to its lowest point since the wake of the financial crash. That’s what political uncertainty does to business: it makes it impossible to plan, innovate and expand.”
The British Retail Consortium also expressed its concern with the current situation, noting that leaving the EU without a deal would negatively impact businesses and consumers alike.
“A no deal Brexit means the public will face higher prices and less choice on the shelves. British businesses desperately need certainty about the UK’s future trading relationship with the EU and will be severely disadvantaged by a no deal,” Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the British Retail Consortium, said in a statement. “The time for Parliamentary games is over.”
What Happens Next for Brexit?
The pivotal vote may have taken place, but there is still a lot of uncertainty about what will happen next.
First up is dealing with the no-confidence motion that was tabled by the leader of the opposition Labour Party, Jeremy Corbyn, immediately after the vote.
If May loses the no-confidence vote, the government has 14 days to regain the confidence of MPs. If that doesn’t happen, then Parliament will be dissolved and a national election will be triggered.
Should May survive another no-confidence vote, and many analysts think she will, she has pledged to consult with senior lawmakers to determine what sort of deal could pass Parliament. May has until Monday, January 21 to let MPs know what she plans to do next.
At the moment there is no clear idea of what that plan might be.
Given the massive defeat May’s deal received, there’s little chance that she will bring it back in its current state for another vote. That leaves the options of making amendments to the current deal, proposing to negotiate a new deal with the EU, holding another referendum (something May has said she does not support), calling an early general election, or the default position of a no-deal Brexit that would see the UK leave the EU on March 29 without any formal agreement in place. However, May has said her strategy is not to “run down the clock” until the March deadline.
Any of these options would almost certainly require an extension to the UK’s exit date under article 50 of the EU treaty.
If you’re confused about what might happen next, you’re not alone. For a detailed look at the different scenarios that could unfold, check out this handy Brexit guide from the New York Times.
One of the main hurdles standing in the way of seeing any Brexit deal approved is that there is no unified position among British lawmakers. That means there is likely to be more political brawling before any consensus is finally reached.
