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How Harris Wins
What if the Democratic candidate leans in to white working-class grievances?
Here’s what we know:
Swing voters are focused on pocket book issues.
According to Blueprint, a Democratic polling group, Harris campaign ads focused on “the struggle of working families” performed better than those touting Harris as a “champion of democracy.”
When we talk about democracy as something to be “saved,” something “under attack,” we lose. Because swing voters carry elections. Harris may be popular among younger voters and voters of color and this could lead to a popular victory. But for an Electoral College victory, Harris needs to clinch the battleground states — Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan. That means appealing to those older voters and the white working class. Because that’s what swing states are — older, whiter, and working class.
Recently I made the case that Harris should choose a non-white running mate. Perhaps this seems counterintuitive given what I just said about swing states. But I’m considering the psychology of those voters, the likely possibility that they’ll resent seeing a white man in a “second fiddle” position and vote against Harris for it.
Regardless of who she chooses, campaigning on ambiguous notions such as Biden’s “soul of America,” or “saving democracy,” even Harris’s own “freedom versus chaos” may not be the best strategy. Abstract sloganeering like that applies to the culture war, where everyone either thinks they’re on the side of democracy / morality / rightness. Or, they’re tuned out to those emotional aspects, like many of the independents and undecideds who end up determining elections.
To win, Harris would do well to focus on the issues that show up again and again as top concerns for the electorate, such as those from Blueprint, or another recent poll by the NY Times and Siena College, with “Economy or Inflation” as “the most important issue in deciding your vote” at 21% among undecideds and 26%…
