NFL Strength of Schedule Power Rankings, Week 10: New Orleans Moves into First

A shorter article this week, with paragraphs only for the top ten teams. The full article will be back next week. The main storyline this week is the Saints leapfrogging the Eagles while Philadelphia was on a bye week. The top eight or nine teams seem to be clearly ahead of the rest of the pack, with a large group of NFC teams ranked tenth through fifteenth that look to be fighting for the final wild card spot. The AFC continues to look like clearly the weaker conference, with only six teams finding themselves in the top half of these rankings.

For last week’s rankings, click here. For a description of how this works, click here.

1. New Orleans Saints (7–2): 33 points. Last week: 2nd, 23 pts. Best win: @Carolina (t4th). Worst loss: @Minnesota (t4th).

The Saints jump into first place after blowing out the Bills in Buffalo. While the Saints have one more loss than the conference-leading Eagles, the Saints claim the top spot by virtue of a longer list of quality victories. They now have four wins over teams with winning records, compared with just one such win for Philadelphia. With five games remaining against top fifteen teams, however, the Saints will have to keep up their unexpectedly high level of performance to hang onto the top spot.

2. Philadelphia Eagles (8–1): 31 points. Last week: 1st, 29 pts. Best win: @Carolina (t4th). Worst loss: @Kansas City (t7th).

The Eagles surrender the top spot after a weekend of inactivity during their bye. The week also saw a number of Philadelphia’s former opponents lose, meaning that they now have only beaten one team with a winning record. The Eagles will be justifiably very pleased with their surprising 8–1 record so far, and they can only beat the teams they are scheduled against, but a 1–1 record against teams with winning records is simply not enough evidence to say that this is definitely the best team in the league.

3. New England Patriots (7–2): 27 points. Last week: t3rd, 20 points. Best win: @New Orleans (1st). Worst loss: Kansas City (t7th).

A victory over the struggling Broncos sees the Patriots in sole possession of third place, and sole possession of first in the AFC. This didn’t seem like a classic Patriots team through the first four weeks of the season, when the team was 2–2 and defense had given up 31.25 points per game. Since then, however, the team has rattled off five straight wins, with the defense giving up a mere 13.4 points over that stretch. Granted, the first four games included three top seven teams, while the most recent five contained no top ten teams, but it’s an impressive turnaround nonetheless, and the Patriots are back to looking like a Super Bowl contender, as usual.

t4. Carolina Panthers (7–3): 25 points. Last week: 7th, 16 pts. Best win: @New England (3rd). Worst loss: @Chicago (t20th).

The Panthers currently sit as easily the best wild card team in the league, ranking tied with or ahead of five division leaders at this point. Four of their remaining six games come against top-eleven teams, though, so a wild card berth is not yet close to a certainty. Carolina’s resume so far suggests that they should secure a playoff spot, which may even be as high as a first round bye should the Saints slip up and give the division to the Panthers.

t4. Minnesota Vikings (7–2): 25 points. Last week: 6th, 17 pts. Best win: New Orleans (1st). Worst loss: Detroit (14th).

The Vikings’ victory over the Redskins sends Minnesota up into a tie for fourth. Case Keenum’s surprisingly competent season has seen the Vikings emerge a true contender in the NFC, and one which may well be a contender for the NFC North title even if Aaron Rodgers wasn’t injured. Minnesota has a good chance at a first round bye if they can get through a tough next four games, all of which come against top-fourteen teams. The Vikings currently hold the tiebreaker for the second seed over the Saints, who they beat back in Week 1.

6. Pittsburgh Steelers (7–2): 24 points. Last week: 5th, 19 pts. Best win: Minnesota (t4th). Worst loss: @Chicago (t20th).

The Steelers slip back one spot in these rankings by virtue of an unimpressive victory over the lowly Colts. But Pittsburgh now occupies the second seed in the AFC and looks to be a favorite for a first round bye. The Steelers hold the tiebreaker over the Chiefs by virtue of their Week 6 victory in Kansas City. They will hold the the tiebreaker over New England as well if they can win their Week 15 matchup in Pittsburgh. A win there, in Pittsburgh’s sole remaining game against a top-ten team, would make the Steelers clear favorites to win the AFC.

t7. Kansas City Chiefs (6–3): 20 points. Last week: t3rd, 20 pts. Best win: Philadelphia (2nd). Worst loss: @Oakland (t20th).

The Chiefs slip four spots as a result of other teams winning games while they sat at home on their bye week. With no games remaining against top fifteen teams, the Chiefs have a very easy end to their schedule. With a two-game lead in the weak AFC West, a playoff spot is almost certain, but Kansas City will have to make up a game against the Patriots or Steelers if they are to secure a first round bye, and both of those teams have looked slightly stronger so far.

t7. Los Angeles Rams (7–2): 20 points. Last week: 8th, 15 pts. Best win: @Jacksonville (9th). Worst loss: Washington (15th).

The Rams continue to beat up on bad teams, recording a blowout victory over the 25th-ranked Texans on Sunday. It’s not their fault their schedule has been so weak, and beating up on bad teams should get Los Angeles to the playoffs. But we will know a whole lot more about the true strength of this team four weeks from now, after they’ve played three top four teams (Minnesota, New Orleans, and Philadelphia). It’s easy to see the Rams losing all three of those games and entering the stretch run 8–5, looking like a fringe contender at best. Until they play some good teams, we just don’t know enough about these Rams to say otherwise.

9. Jacksonville Jaguars (6–3): 15 points. Last week: 9th, 11 pts. Best win: @Pittsburgh (6th). Worst loss: @NY Jets (t23rd).

The Jaguars seem to be in a tier by themselves in these rankings. They sit five points below the group of eight clear playoff contenders above them, and five points ahead of the fringe playoff teams beneath them. But with the AFC being very weak this year (only six AFC teams find themselves in the top half of these rankings), Jacksonville looks very likely to make the playoffs for the first time in ten years. With an away win in Pittsburgh on their resume, there may even be reason to believe the Jaguars could make a run once they get there.

10. Seattle Seahawks (6–3): 10 points. Last week: t14th, 4 pts. Best win: @LA Rams (t7th). Worst loss: Washington (15th).

The Seahawks moved back into the top ten after a Thursday night victory in Arizona. But the most significant thing to happen in the game was probably a season-ending injury for star cornerback Richard Sherman. These power rankings see the Seahawks as the sixth-best team in the NFC, but will face a tough challenge for a wild card spot from a large group of decent NFC teams who sit right behind them. If the loss of Sherman hurts significantly, one of the Falcons, Packers, Lions, Redskins, or Cowboys could well make a run.

t11. Atlanta Falcons (5–4): 9 points. Last week: 17th, 3 pts. Best win: Green Bay (t11th). Worst loss: Miami (18th).

t11. Green Bay Packers (5–4): 9 points. Last week: t14th, 4 pts. Best win: Seattle (10th). Worst loss: Detroit (14th).

t11. Tennessee Titans (6–3): 9 points. Last week: 13th, 5 pts. Best win: @Jacksonville (9th). Worst loss: @Houston (25th).

14. Detroit Lions (5–4): 7 points. Last week: t14th, 4 pts. Best win: @Minnesota (t4th). Worst loss: Atlanta (t11th).

15. Washington Redskins (4–5): 6 points. Last week: 10th, 7 pts. Best win: @LA Rams (t7th). Worst loss: Dallas (17th).

16. Buffalo Bills (5–4): 3 points. Last week: t11th, 6 pts. Best win: @Atlanta (t11th). Worst loss: @Cincinnati (28th).

17. Dallas Cowboys (5–4): 1 point. Last week: t11th, 6 pts. Best win: Kansas City (t7th). Worst loss: @Denver (t26th).

18. Miami Dolphins (4–5): -4 points. Last week: 18th, -1 pt. Best win: @Atlanta (t11th). Worst loss: Oakland (t20th).

19. Baltimore Ravens (4–5): -6 points. Last week: t21st, -5 pts. Best win: Miami (18th). Worst loss: Chicago (t20th).

t20. Arizona Cardinals (4–5): -7 points. Last week: t21st, -5 pts. Best win: Tampa Bay (t23rd). Worst loss: Dallas (17th).

t20. Chicago Bears (3–6): -7 points. Last week: t19th, -4 pts. Best win: Carolina (t4th). Worst loss: @Tampa Bay (t23rd).

t20. Oakland Raiders (4–5): -7 points. Last week: t19th, -4 pts. Best win: Kansas City (t7th). Worst loss: LA Chargers (t26th).

t23. New York Jets (4–6): -13 points. Last week: t21st, -5 pts. Best win: Jacksonville (9th). Worst loss: @Tampa Bay (t23rd).

t23. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3–6): -13 points. Last week: 28th, -16 pts. Best win: Chicago (t20th). Worst loss: @Arizona (t20th).

25. Houston Texans (3–6): -14 points. Last week: 26th, -11 pts. Best win: Tennessee (t11th). Worst loss: Indianapolis (29th).

t26. Denver Broncos (3–6): -15 points. Last week: t24th, -9 pts. Best win: Dallas (17th). Worst loss: NY Giants (30th).

t26. Los Angeles Chargers (3–6): -15 points. Last week: t24th, -9 pts. Best win: @Oakland (t20th). Worst loss: @Denver (t26th).

28. Cincinnati Bengals (3–6): -18 points. Last week: 27th, -13 pts. Best win: Buffalo (16th). Worst loss: Houston (25th).

29. Indianapolis Colts (3–7): -24 points. Last week: 29th, -20 pts. Best win: @Houston (25th). Worst loss: @Cincinnati (28th).

30. New York Giants (1–8): -39 points. Last week: 30th, -27 pts. Best win: @Denver (t26th). Worst loss: @San Francisco (31st).

31. San Francisco 49ers (1–9): -42 points. Last week: 31st, -39 points. Best win: NY Giants (30th). Worst loss: @Indianapolis (29th).

32. Cleveland Browns (0–9): -50 points. Last week: 32nd, -38 points. Best win: None. Worst loss: @Indianapolis (29th).