NFL Strength of Schedule Power Rankings, Week 9: NFC East Looking Strong

Week 9 saw some quality wins by NFC East teams. The Eagles moved back into sole possession of first place in the rankings with a win over the Broncos, rushing for 197 yards against the team ranked first in run defense by DVOA. The Cowboys convincingly beat the Chiefs, who had been tied for first in last week’s rankings, earning Dallas a move up to the eleventh spot. The Redskins moved into the top ten (despite having just a .500 record) after recording an excellent victory away in Seattle.

The Giants may have lost, but if we measure the strength of a division just by looking at its top three teams (the ones which theoretically are still in the division race), the NFC East is tied with the NFC South for the strongest division in football:

The NFC East has the top team in the league, as well as three teams in the top eleven. The NFC South has two of the top seven. This table also shows just how weak the AFC has been. The conference has three top five teams, but also ten of the bottom fifteen. That means many of the best AFC teams will have it easy the rest of the way, and for the contenders who have been able to pull away from the pack so far, a playoff spot is already almost certain.

The three NFC East teams mentioned above gained the most points this week, with each team gaining seven. The Texans lost the most points after losing to the lowly Colts, losing eight points in total and dropping five spots in the rankings. For an explanation of how these rankings are calculated, click here. For last week’s power rankings, click here.

1. Philadelphia Eagles (8–1): 29 points. Last week: t1st, 22 pts. Best win: @Carolina (7th). Worst loss: @Kansas City (t3rd).

A win over the struggling Broncos isn’t worth many points in these rankings, regardless of how dominant the Eagles’ performance was. But the Eagles also benefitted this week from many of their previous opponents winning. Victories by Washington and Arizona mean that the Eagles now how four victories against .500-or-better teams, after having just one such victory last week. Philadelphia enters their bye week as the clear best team in the league, with two weeks to prepare for a tough game away in Dallas in Week 11. A win there would all but lock up the division, though a loss could shrink their lead to just one game.

2. New Orleans Saints (6–2): 23 points. Last week: t4th, 18 pts. Best win: @Carolina (7th). Worst loss: @Minnesota (6th).

Losses and byes by teams ahead of New Orleans last week have allowed the Saints to jump up to second place after a win against the Buccaneers. The Saints remain undefeated against teams ranked outside the top six, and have four wins against teams with .500 or better records. Their next four games will be the true test of their status as potential Super Bowl contenders, however, as each comes against a team ranked in the top eleven. A strong showing over that stretch could jump the Saints into the top spot in the league, though a losing streak could be enough to knock them out of a playoff spot.

t3. Kansas City Chiefs (6–3): 20 points. Last week: t1st, 22 pts. Best win: Philadelphia (1st). Worst loss: @Oakland (t19th).

An away loss to the eleventh-ranked Cowboys isn’t particularly damaging to the Chiefs’ reputation, though it’s enough to drop them from a share of first place to a share of third. The Chiefs have now dropped three out of their last four games, but they’re still fundamentally the same team that beat the Patriots and Eagles in the first two weeks of the season. With no top ten teams remaining on their schedule, and only one team ranked in the top seventeen, the Chiefs should be able to coast to a division title and have a very good shot at a first round bye.

t3. New England Patriots (6–2): 20 points. Last week: 3rd, 19 points. Best win: @New Orleans (2nd). Worst loss: Carolina (7th).

A bye week sees the Patriots remaining in third place in these rankings. Their Week 2 win over the Saints continues to look better and better, and now that the Saints are up to second place, it looks like a potential Super Bowl preview. But that game is now the Patriots’ only victory over a team with a winning record. New England should coast into the playoffs, as they only have one game remaining against a top ten team, at Pittsburgh in Week 15. That game could determine who gets a first round bye and tell us how good the Patriots really are against quality teams.

5. Pittsburgh Steelers (6–2): 19 points. Last week: t4th, 18 pts. Best win: @Kansas City (t3rd). Worst loss: @Chicago (t19th).

The Steelers slip back one spot after a week of inactivity during their bye. Like the Patriots, Pittsburgh has only one game remaining against a top ten team, so a playoff berth should be all but secured, especially in the league’s worst division, the AFC North. The Steelers’ Week 15 matchup against New England is probably the only significant game remaining on the schedule for both teams. Win that game, and the Steelers will have victories over the Chiefs and Patriots and should be the favorite to make the Super Bowl from the AFC.

6. Minnesota Vikings (6–2): 17 points. Last week: 6th, 16 pts. Best win: New Orleans (2nd). Worst loss: Detroit (t14th).

The Vikings hold steady in sixth place after their bye week. Their Week One victory over the Saints continues to look better and better, with the Saints now up to second place in these power rankings. With the Lions beating Green Bay on Monday night, the Vikings now have no losses against sub-.500 teams. That result also means that the Vikings have a two-game lead in the NFC North, with the division very much theirs to lose.

7. Carolina Panthers (6–3): 16 points. Last week: t8th, 10 pts. Best win: @New England (t3rd). Worst loss: @Chicago (t19th).

The Panthers continued to climb these rankings after a victory against the defending NFC champion Falcons. Carolina looks to be a very strong wild card contender, with a nine-point lead over the next NFC wild card team, the Redskins. A division victory will be tough, as the Saints are looking excellent, and the Panthers still have to travel to New Orleans and Atlanta. These power rankings currently predict Carolina will travel to Los Angeles to play the Rams in the first round of the playoffs, which should be a winnable game.

8. Los Angeles Rams (6–2): 15 points. Last week: t8th, 10 pts. Best win: @Jacksonville (9th). Worst loss: Seattle (t14th).

Beating the Giants hardly enhances the Rams’ reputation, but four of the teams Los Angeles beat earlier this season won in Week 9, allowing the Rams to pick up five points. Still, despite those wins, the Rams’ resume does not look nearly as good as their record, as they rank here as the bottom two-loss in the league. The team’s turnaround under rookie head coach Sean McVay is certainly impressive, but it helps to have played zero top eight teams so far.

9. Jacksonville Jaguars (5–3): 11 points. Last week: 13th, 6 pts. Best win: @Pittsburgh (5th). Worst loss: @NY Jets (t21st).

The surprising Jaguars climb into the top ten after a win over the Bengals, despite suspending star rookie RB Leonard Fournette for the game for missing a team photo. With no top twelve teams remaining on their schedule, the Jaguars have the inside track on their first playoff appearance since the 2007 season. A first division title in eighteen years is possible as well, if the Jaguars can hold off the Titans, who have a slightly worse resume according to these rankings.

10. Washington Redskins (4–4): 7 points. Last week: t15th, 0 pts. Best win: @LA Rams (8th). Worst loss: Dallas (t11th).

The Redskins are the team whose record may be the most deceiving, as they have just cracked the top ten here despite only having a .500 record. All four of Washington’s losses came against top-eleven teams, and after a win in Seattle this week, the Redskins now have two away wins against playoff contenders. Things won’t get any easier for the Redskins, however, as three of their next four games come against top-eleven teams. These power rankings suggest that Washington is the sixth best team in the NFC, but they have some ground to make up against teams with easier schedules if they’re to reach to playoffs.

t11. Buffalo Bills (5–3): 6 points. Last week: 7th, 11 pts. Best win: @Atlanta (17th). Worst loss: @Cincinnati (27th).

A loss to the mediocre Jets sends the Bills down five spots in this week’s rankings. Losses by previous opponents have made the Bills’ resume look worse than it did last week, as they’ve now recorded zero wins over top-half teams. Two of their three losses have come against bottom half teams as well, meaning that the Bills’ positive start looks primarily attributable to a weak schedule. With half of their remaining games coming against top-three teams, a strong finish seems unlikely, but with five wins already in the bank and a generally weak AFC, Buffalo still has a chance of breaking their seventeen-year playoff drought.

t11. Dallas Cowboys (5–3): 6 point. Last week: t17th, -1 pt. Best win: Kansas City (t3rd). Worst loss: @Denver (t24th).

The Cowboys have now shot up thirteen spots in just two weeks, and have a considerably more impressive resume after beating the then-first-ranked Chiefs on Sunday. With the Redskins moving up as well, Dallas now has two wins against top-ten teams, after having beaten no one in the top twenty through the first seven weeks of the season. Their recent rise still leaves them as the seventh-best team in the NFC, however, and with RB Ezekiel Elliott finally beginning his six-game suspension for domestic violence this Sunday, a wild card spot may be hard to come by.

13. Tennessee Titans (5–3): 5 points. Last week: t15th, 0 pts. Best win: @Jacksonville (9th). Worst loss: @Houston (26th).

The Titans kept pace with the Jaguars at the top of the AFC south with a win over the Ravens. Tennessee occupies first place in the division standings, holding the tiebreaker by virtue of a Week 2 win in Jacksonville, but these power rankings continue to suggest that the Jaguars are a better team. The Titans have a fairly easy second half of the schedule, with five games remaining against bottom half teams, and as one of only six AFC teams ranked in the top half of these power rankings, a wild card berth seems possible even if they lose out to the Jaguars for the division title.

t14. Detroit Lions (4–4): 4 points. Last week: t17th, -1 pt. Best win: @Minnesota (6th). Worst loss: Atlanta (17th).

A victory over Brett Hundley’s Packers sends the Lions into the top half of these power rankings. It also keeps them within two games of the division-leading Vikings. Detroit has an easy schedule in the second half of the season, playing only two games against top-eighteen teams, one of which is the rematch against the now-crippled Packers. It’s not inconceivable that the Lions could make up two games on the Vikings. If the Lions win the Thanksgiving matchup between the two, they will have swept the season series and would own the tiebreaker, and would only need to make up one more game the rest of the way.

t14. Green Bay Packers (4–4): 4 points. Last week: 10th, 9 pts. Best win: @Dallas (t11th). Worst loss: @Atlanta (17th).

The Packers lost their third straight game under backup QB Brett Hundley, each by at least nine points. There was some hope after his initial struggles that he could do better when the game plan was tailored specifically for him. It’s clear by now that there isn’t enough talent surrounding Hundley to make up for his weaknesses, and he isn’t talented enough himself to carry a mediocre team to the playoffs.

t14. Seattle Seahawks (5–3): 4 points. Last week: 11th, 8 pts. Best win: @LA Rams (8th). Worst loss: @Tennessee (t15th).

The Seahawks lost a close game to a solid Redskins team and slip back three spots in these power rankings. There is still time for the Seahawks to turn it around, but they are now only 1–3 against teams ranked outside the bottom seven. The back half of their schedule is difficult, with five games remaining against top eleven teams. Based on the way they’ve played so far, it’s entirely possible that the Seahawks could miss the playoffs for the first time in six years, though given the talent on their roster, it seems more likely that they’ll eventually turn their performances around.

17. Atlanta Falcons (4–4): 3 points. Last week: 12th, 7 pts. Best win: @Detroit (t14th). Worst loss: Miami (18th).

The Falcons look like a stereotypical .500 team. They’ve yet to beat a team with a winning record and yet to lose to a team with a losing record. That adds up to a big disappointment for a team that went to the Super Bowl last year. With six of their final eight games coming against top eleven teams, a return to the big game seems unlikely, barring a major turnaround. They will probably have to win at least four of those games to make the playoffs, which looks very difficult based on their performances thus far.

18. Miami Dolphins (4–4): -1 point. Last week: 14th, 4 pts. Best win: Tennessee (13th). Worst loss: @Baltimore (21st).

The Dolphins have now fallen ten spots in two weeks after a loss to the Raiders on Sunday. While Miami ranks here as the seventh-best team in the AFC, just one spot out of the playoffs, they have a much tougher remaining schedule than most of the teams ranked ahead of them. Miami has yet to beat a team in the top twelve has has five games against such teams remaining this season. A wild card berth seems out of reach for this underwhelming team.

t19. Chicago Bears (3–5): -4 points. Last week: t19th, -2 pts. Best win: Pittsburgh (5th). Worst loss: @Tampa Bay (28th).

The Bears held steady at nineteenth over their bye week. A playoff spot seems very unlikely for Chicago, but they have a shot at finishing above the rival Packers for just the second time in eleven years. They’ve already matched their win total from last year, and have two excellent wins over top-seven teams. Any more victories the rest of way will represent progress for a team that was supposed to be quite poor coming into the season.

t19. Oakland Raiders (4–5): -4 points. Last week: 26th, -8 pts. Best win: Kansas City (t3rd). Worst loss: LA Chargers (t24th).

The Raiders were able to hang around the back edge of the AFC playoff picture with a win against the Dolphins. They sit a game and a half back from the Jaguars and Bills in the wild card race, and neither of those teams looks like a powerhouse. But Oakland has a tough schedule from here on out, playing three games against top three teams. Lose even two of those games, and the Raiders will have to hope that 9–7 is good enough for a wild card spot.

t21. Arizona Cardinals (4–4): -5 points. Last week: t23rd, -7 pts. Best win: Tampa Bay (28th). Worst loss: @Detroit (t14th).

The Cardinals provide an excellent example of the value of these power rankings. While they now have a .500 record, they’ve yet to beat anybody outside the bottom five. With only two games remaining against bottom half teams, the Cardinals are unlikely to even finish .500, despite appearing on the surface to be still in the playoff race, as they currently sit just one game behind the Cowboys for the second wild card spot. This is the classic example of a team that’s nowhere near as good as their record makes them seem.

t21. Baltimore Ravens (4–5): -5 points. Last week: t19th, -2 pts. Best win: Miami (18th). Worst loss: Chicago (t19th).

The Ravens are tied for the eighth-best record in the AFC, which suggests that they’re a team with a shot at a wild card spot. But with no wins against top-half teams this season, Baltimore does not look anything like a contender. They do end the season with three straight very winnable games against bottom-six teams, meaning that a late run is possible if the Ravens are still in the race. Judging based on how they’ve performed so far, that seems unlikely.

t21. New York Jets (4–5): -5 points. Last week: 27th, -9 pts. Best win: Buffalo (t11th). Worst loss: @Oakland (t19th).

The Jets recorded one of the best wins of the week with their Thursday night victory over the Bills. With four games remaining against top seven teams, though, any dreams of a shocking playoff berth are unlikely to be fulfilled. Still, four wins is nothing to be ashamed about for a team that some thought had a shot to go winless before the season started.

t24. Denver Broncos (3–5): -9 points. Last week: 22, -6 pts. Best win: Dallas (t11th). Worst loss: NY Giants (30th).

Losing to the top-ranked Eagles is no shame, but the Broncos’ performance in that loss should be enough to kill any last remnants of playoff hopes in Denver. The Broncos defense, which had allowed the fewest yards per game, allowed 419 yards (including 197 on the ground) and 51 points. The Broncos’ hopes of a wild card run rested on a dominating defense and competent play from one of their quarterbacks, and they didn’t look close to having either of those on Sunday. It’s probably time to see what second-year QB Paxton Lynch can do, knowing that the worst-case scenario is that he leads the team to a high draft pick.

t24. Los Angeles Chargers (3–5): -9 points. Last week: 23rd, -7 pts. Best win: @Oakland (t19th). Worst loss: @Denver (t24th).

The Chargers remain in largely the same spot following their bye week. Their record, and the narrow margin of some of their early losses, suggests that they have an outside shot at getting back into the playoff picture. But Los Angeles has yet to beat a team ranked higher than nineteenth, and has five games remaining against top eleven teams. Even going 3–2 in those five games will probably not be enough to get the Chargers a wild card spot. This looks like another disappointing season for the Chargers.

26. Houston Texans (3–5): -11 points. Last week: 21st, -3 pts. Best win: Tennessee (13th). Worst loss: Indianapolis (29th).

A home loss to the 29th-ranked Colts shows just how bad the Texans are without Deshaun Watson at QB. Houston could have had an outside chance to save their season by signing competent NFL QB Colin Kaepernick, but instead decided to sign Josh Johnson, a player who hasn’t thrown an NFL pass in six years and has a lifetime 57.7 quarterback rating. The only thing left to play for in Houston now is a high draft pick.

27. Cincinnati Bengals (3–5): -7 points. Last week: t23rd, -7 pts. Best win: Buffalo (t11th). Worst loss: Houston (26th).

The Bengals lost an uncompetitive game in Jacksonville on Sunday, holding the ball for less than a third of the game and putting up only 148 total yards. Cincinnati is 1–5 when playing teams outside the bottom four and is nowhere near the playoff race, despite being just two games out of the sixth seed in a weak AFC. The Bengals need a major shakeup to get back to being competitive. A top-five pick would certainly help, and the Bengals have a good shot at that.

28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2–6): -16 points. Last week: 28th, -12 pts. Best win: Chicago (t19th). Worst loss: @Arizona (t21st).

The Buccaneers might have the talent of a 7- or 8-win team, as they are 2–0 against sub-.500 teams and 0–6 against teams with .500-or-better records. Tampa Bay can probably blame their tough schedule for their 2–6 start to the season. But this was supposed to be a playoff contender, and a playoff contender should go about 3–3 against good teams, not 0–6. With seven of their eight remaining games coming against teams with .500-or-better records, the Bucs are going to lose a lot more games unless they dramatically improve their performances.

29. Indianapolis Colts (3–6): -20 points. Last week: t29th, -22 pts. Best win: @Houston (26th). Worst loss: @Cincinnati (27th).

The Colts finally beat a team that wasn’t winless, but there isn’t any glory to be had in beating Tom Savage’s Texans. This is still a very bad team, with nothing left to play for other than increasing QB Jacoby Brissett’s trade value. Colts fans will hope that can happen without the team recording too many wins, keeping Indianapolis’s draft pick as high as possible.

30. New York Giants (1–7): -27 points. Last week: t29th, -22 pts. Best win: @Denver (t24th). Worst loss: @Tampa Bay (28th).

The Giants were blown out by the Rams on Sunday, giving up 51 points and looking hopeless throughout the game. At this point, it’s a mystery why head coach Ben McAdoo is still around. Perhaps the Giants’ front office is hoping that he will lose as many games as possible and make a run at the first overall pick. If that’s the case, a loss against the 49ers on Sunday will be crucial.

31. San Francisco 49ers (0–9): -39 points. Last week: 31st, -33 points. Best win: None. Worst loss: @Indianapolis (29th).

The 49ers keep losing, dropping their ninth straight game and losing their second game of the season against the mediocre Cardinals. San Francisco will want to win at least one game this season to avoid the ignominy of a winless season, and a home game against the hapless Giants next week may be their best chance of the season. A loss to New York, however, would help secure a top two pick, so perhaps the 49ers would be better off losing that one as well.

32. Cleveland Browns (0–8): -38 points. Last week: 41st, -38 points. Best win: None. Worst loss: @Indianapolis (29th).

The Browns had their best week of the season, sitting out the week on a bye and avoiding a ninth-straight loss. They also got star WR Josh Gordon back after he missed nearly three years due to repeated violations of the league’s substance abuse policy. It’s probably a long shot that he could return to Pro Bowl form after missing such a long time, but Browns fans don’t have many other reasons to tune in the rest of the season.