NFL Strength of Schedule Power Rankings, Week 11: Saints Hold Top Spot
The playoff picture continues to crystallize in both conferences. The top four teams in the NFC (New Orleans, Philadelphia, Minnesota, and Carolina) are separated by the rest of the pack by at least ten points, while the top two AFC teams (New England and Pittsburgh) lead the rest of their conference by fifteen points. The fight for the sixth seed in both conferences looks quite close, however. Four teams sit within a game of the sixth-ranked Falcons in the NFC, while seven teams sit within a game of the sixth-ranked Ravens in the AFC. None of those teams look like Super Bowl contenders, but any of them could get hot in January and make a run.
For last week’s rankings, click here. For an explanation of how these rankings are calculated, click here.
1. New Orleans Saints (8–2): 40 points. Last week: 1st, 33 pts. Best win: @Carolina (6th). Worst loss: New England (t3rd).
The Saints required overtime to get past the mediocre Redskins, but by racking up an eighth straight win, New Orleans is able to maintain their slim lead at the top of these rankings. The Saints are by no means a runaway Super Bowl favorite, but their resume of four wins against .500-or-better teams and no loss against a team ranked lower than third, is the best in the league so far. The Saints are a good bet to win a first-round bye, but will have to hold off the sixth-ranked Panthers just to win the division. Four remaining games against top-nine teams makes that no easy task.
2. Philadelphia Eagles (9–1): 38 points. Last week: 2nd, 31 pts. Best win: @Carolina (6th). Worst loss: @Kansas City (t10th).
The Eagles’ blowout away win over the Cowboys on Monday night was impressive, but the Cowboys don’t appear to be a particularly good team this year. The Eagles still have just one win against a team with a winning record, keeping them in second place here despite having the best record in the league. Philadelphia will have opportunities to pick up quality wins coming up against the Seahawks and Rams, but with their other four games coming against bottom-half teams, their path to the number one seed seems relatively clear.
t3. Minnesota Vikings (8–2): 36 points. Last week: t4th, 25 pts. Best win: New Orleans (1st). Worst loss: Detroit (t10th).
The Vikings easily handled the perhaps-overrated Rams, beating them by seventeen points. With four remaining games against top-thirteen teams, Minnesota has a remaining schedule roughly as tricky as the Saints. The Vikings’ victory over the Saints in Week 1 has them currently holding a first-round bye, and if they can match the Saints’ results over the final six games, the should find themselves in the same position when the season ends. In a well-balanced NFC, Minnesota will have a very real chance of becoming the first team ever to play in a Super Bowl in their home stadium.
t3. New England Patriots (8–2): 36 points. Last week: 3rd, 27 points. Best win: @New Orleans (1st). Worst loss: Kansas City (t10th).
The Patriots blew out the struggling Raiders to hold onto the top spot in the AFC. New England has a three-game lead in the weak AFC East and an easy remaining schedule, with only one top-half team left to play, so a division title is all but assured, as it has been thirteen of the last fourteen years. With only two AFC teams looking like true title contenders, the Patriots’ Week 15 trip to Pittsburgh will probably be a battle for home field advantage, and a good bet for an AFC Championship Game preview.
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (8–2): 34 points. Last week: 6th, 24 pts. Best win: Minnesota (t3rd). Worst loss: @Chicago (23rd).
The Steelers blew out the Titans, who rank as the AFC’s fifth-best team, demonstrating the gap between the conference’s top teams and the rest of the pack. Just like the Patriots, the Steelers have a three-game lead over a weak division, and only have one difficult game remaining on their schedule. The New England-Pittsburgh matchup is by far the most significant remaining game for both teams. These power rankings suggest that New England is the slightly superior team, but the margin is thin.
6. Carolina Panthers (7–3): 28 points. Last week: t4th, 25 pts. Best win: @New England (t3rd). Worst loss: @Chicago (23rd).
The Panthers sit one game behind the Saints for the NFC South lead, but appear to be part of a top tier of six teams who look like legitimate Super Bowl contenders, as there is a nine-point gap between Carolina and seventh-ranked Jacksonville. The Panthers have three remaining games against top-nine teams, and could reasonably finish anywhere from a two seed to out of the playoffs. To win the division and host at least one playoff game, the Panthers will need to outplay the Saints by one game over the remaining six, with the Week 13 matchup between the two absolutely essential, as the Saints have already beaten Carolina once this season.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars (7–3): 19 points. Last week: 9th, 15 pts. Best win: @Pittsburgh (5th). Worst loss: @NY Jets (25th).
The Jaguars won unimpressively against the winless Browns, but losses elsewhere meant that the victory was enough to send Jacksonville up to seventh place. The large gap in points between Jacksonville and the top six teams suggests that the Jaguars are not a real Super Bowl threat, but with a two-game lead over the seventh seed in the AFC, a playoff berth is all but clinched. With three games remaining against bottom-six teams, the Jaguars have an easy path to at least ten wins, which should be enough to guarantee at least a wild card spot in the weak AFC.
8. Los Angeles Rams (7–3): 18 points. Last week: t7th, 20 pts. Best win: @Jacksonville (7th). Worst loss: Washington (15th).
The Rams played their first top-six opponent (and only their second in the top twelve) and got soundly beaten, losing by seventeen points in Minnesota. The Rams are just 1–3 against top-half opponents, and have four games remaining against such teams. With the strength of the NFC this year, 10–6 may not be enough to guarantee a playoff spot, so the Rams will likely have to win two of those four games to be certain of a spot.
9. Atlanta Falcons (6–4): 15 points. Last week: 17th, 3 pts. Best win: @Detroit (t10th). Worst loss: Miami (20th).
The Falcons are finally starting to look like the playoff team they were supposed to be, just in time to stay in the playoff race. But they have the hardest schedule among the NFC contenders, as they play four of their final six games against top-six opponents. These rankings say that Atlanta is the sixth-best team in the NFC so far, but they will have to outplay a large pack of teams who are nearly as good and face easier schedules if they want a chance to defend their NFC title.
t10. Kansas City Chiefs (6–4): 13 points. Last week: t7th, 20 pts. Best win: Philadelphia (2nd). Worst loss: @NY Giants (30th).
The Chiefs have now lost four of their past five games, following a 5–0 start, outdoing themselves with an overtime loss to the pathetic Giants. Kansas City should be able to limp into the playoffs, however, as they still have a two-game lead in the AFC West, and have no top-half teams remaining on their schedule. If they can even go 3–3 against that weak slate, they will almost certainly win their division, though they no longer look like the potential Super Bowl contender they appeared to be in the beginning of the season.
t10. Detroit Lions (6–4): 13 points. Last week: 14th, 7 pts. Best win: @Minnesota (t3rd). Worst loss: Atlanta (9th).
The Lions have ridden a three-game win streak back into contention for a playoff spot. After a tough Thanksgiving game against the Vikings, the Lions have no more games against top-twelve teams, so they shouldn’t be counted out of the race even if they lose to Minnesota. They have yet to lose to a team outside the top ten, which bodes well for them over the home stretch.
12. Tennessee Titans (6–4): 7 points. Last week: t11th, 9 pts. Best win: @Jacksonville (7th). Worst loss: Oakland (24th).
The Titans looked nothing like a playoff team against the Steelers, losing by 23 points. But in a weak AFC, they should be able to stumble into a wild card spot, without looking like much of a threat once they get there. With only two games remaining against top-twenty teams, Tennessee has a very easy path to at least ten wins, which should be more than enough in the AFC this year.
t13. Green Bay Packers (5–5): 4 points. Last week: t11th, 9 pts. Best win: Seattle (t13th). Worst loss: Baltimore (16th).
The Packers sit just outside the playoffs, but after getting shut out by the mediocre Ravens, it’s clear this team has no chance at a playoff run. Green Bay is 1–4 with Brett Hundley under center, and Aaron Rodgers isn’t expected to return this year. The Packers would have to finish 5–1 to have any shot at the playoffs, but with four remaining games against top-ten teams, a 1–5 finish is far more likely.
t13. Seattle Seahawks (6–4): 4 points. Last week: 10th, 10 pts. Best win: @LA Rams (8th). Worst loss: Washington (15th).
The Seahawks are battered by injury, and drop back to a tie for eighth in the NFC according to these rankings after a close loss to the Falcons. Seattle will have to catch one of the Falcons or Rams in order to make the playoffs, while holding off a host of other contenders in the crowded NFC. These power rankings show that the Seahawks have a significantly worse resume than Atlanta and Los Angeles so far, but a Week 15 win against the Rams in Seattle would give the Seahawks the tiebreaker in the NFC West and could win them the division.
15. Washington Redskins (4–6): 1 point. Last week: 15th, 6 pts. Best win: @LA Rams (8th). Worst loss: Dallas (18th).
The Redskins continue to look like a decent team, and continue to lose. Four of their losses have come against top three teams. Their schedule finally starts to turn this week, however, with no remaining games against top-half opponents. With six losses already in a deep NFC playoff race, the Redskins will likely have to run the table to have any chance at a wild card berth, and even then, they may miss out.
16. Baltimore Ravens (5–5): -1 point. Last week: 19th, -6 pts. Best win: @Green Bay (t13th). Worst loss: Chicago (23rd).
The Ravens now occupy the sixth spot in the AFC according to these power rankings, but that’s more due to the failures of other teams rather than any strength on the Ravens part. Baltimore’s victory over the Packers on Sunday was their first win over a team ranked higher than 20th, but the Packers’ true talent with Brett Hundley under center is almost certainly that of a bottom ten team. The good news for Baltimore is that four of their remaining games come against teams ranked below twentieth, so they have a good shot at winning the six seed simply by being less bad than everyone else in the race.
17. Buffalo Bills (5–5): -2 points. Last week: 16th, 3 pts. Best win: @Atlanta (9th). Worst loss: @Cincinnati (t26th).
The Bills have now lost three in a row and fell to seventh in the AFC. With games against Kansas City and New England, Buffalo could be effectively out of the playoff race in two weeks. With a very weak AFC, though, it’s possible that even 8–8 could be enough for a wild card spot, a record which shouldn’t be out of the Bills’ reach.
18. Dallas Cowboys (5–5): -3 points. Last week: 17th, 1 pt. Best win: Kansas City (t10th). Worst loss: @Denver (28th).
The Cowboys looked pathetic against the Eagles, losing by 28 points. They aren’t out of the playoff race, as they sit just one game back of the teams tied for the six seed, but with Ezekiel Elliott suspended for all but the final two games of the season, there’s little reason to believe they can turn things around. If this ends up being a lost season in Dallas, the Cowboys could blame it on injuries and the suspension, but the team wasn’t playing particularly well early in the season, either.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4–6): -9 points. Last week: t23rd, -13 pts. Best win: @Miami (20th). Worst loss: @Arizona (t26th).
The Bucs have won two straight and find themselves on the edge of the playoff race, though behind a large group of better teams. Every team remaining remaining on Tampa Bay’s schedule is ranked thirteenth or higher, and the Bucs have yet team beat a team ranked higher than twentieth. Tampa Bay will have to sweep those six games to have a chance at a wild card spot, which is well beyond the reach of this team, even if they’re playing a bit better lately.
20. Miami Dolphins (4–6): -10 points. Last week: 18th, -4 pts. Best win: @Atlanta (9th). Worst loss: @NY Jets (25th).
The Dolphins have now lost four straight, and don’t look anything close to a playoff team. In a weak AFC, however, they sit just eighth, only one game out of a playoff spot. If they can even go 4–2 the rest of the way, they have a shot at a wild card berth. That doesn’t look likely based on how they’ve played lately, though, and with two games remaining against the Patriots, it’s probably not possible.
t21. Los Angeles Chargers (4–6): -11 points. Last week: t26th, -15 pts. Best win: Buffalo (17th). Worst loss: @Denver (28th).
The Chargers may well be the team to make a run and claim the AFC wild card. After an 0–4 start which included three losses by a field goal or less, the Chargers have won four of their last six games. If this is truly a new Chargers team, they have a chance to close out the season 5–1, especially considering they only have one top-ten opponent remaining on their schedule, the struggling Chiefs. A 9–7 record has a very good chance of being good enough for a wild card spot this year, provided the Bills or Ravens don’t go 5–1 themselves.
t21. Houston Texans (4–6): -11 points. Last week: 25th, -14 pts. Best win: Tennessee (12th). Worst loss: Indianapolis (29th).
The Texans also sit just one game out of the playoffs, but are unlikely to make a run behind QB Tom Savage. While a win over Arizona shows that the Texans aren’t completely hopeless without Deshaun Watson, it’s difficult to seem them going 5–1, which they will probably have to in order to grab a wild card spot. With two games against top-seven teams remaining, Houston will probably finish 8–8 at best, and it would hardly be surprising to see them finish with only five or six wins.
23. Chicago Bears (3–7): -12 points. Last week: t20th, -7 pts. Best win: Pittsburgh (5th). Worst loss: @Tampa Bay (19th).
The Bears played NFC North rival Detroit close on Sunday, but ended up losing their third straight. With three bottom-six teams remaining on their schedule, the Bears will have opportunities to pick up a few more wins, but more important will be the performance of rookie QB Mitch Trubisky. He has just a 78.2 rating this year, and has only thrown for over 180 yards once this season, but has looked a little better over the past two games.
24. Oakland Raiders (4–6): -13 points. Last week: t20th, -7 pts. Best win: Kansas City (t10th). Worst loss: @Denver (28th).
A blowout loss to the Patriots shows just how far the Raiders are from contention. This year has been a huge disappointment for a team that was supposed to build on last season’s playoff berth. Oakland sits just one game out of the wild card spot, but their performances thus far give little reason to believe they can make a run.
25. New York Jets (4–6): -15 points. Last week: t23rd, -13 pts. Best win: Jacksonville (7th). Worst loss: @Oakland (24th).
The Jets are surprisingly just one game back of the playoffs, and are one of many AFC teams who could slip into the sixth seed if they get hot at the right time. With four top ten teams remaining on their schedule, however, New York is probably not the smartest team to bet on. Still, four wins is already more than many expected the Jets to achieve before the season started.
t26. Arizona Cardinals (4–6): -16 points. Last week: t20th, -7 pts. Best win: Tampa Bay (19th). Worst loss: @Houston (t21st).
Two weeks ago, the Cardinals were a somewhat surprising 4–4, and hanging around the playoff race. That decent record was almost entirely the product of an easy schedule, however, and Arizona is now all but out of the race. With five games remaining against top fifteen teams, and no wins against teams ranked higher than nineteenth thus far this year, the Cardinals have a much better shot at a top-five draft pick than a playoff spot.
t26. Cincinnati Bengals (4–6): -16 points. Last week: 28th, -18 pts. Best win: Buffalo (17th). Worst loss: Houston (t21st).
Like most of the AFC, the Bengals sit within one game of a playoff spot. But Cincinnati has the worst resume of all the 4–6 AFC teams, and therefore likely has the worst shot at making a run for a wild card berth. With two games remaining against top-five teams, the Bengals are unlikely to finish higher than 8–8, and are probably best served trying out some young players, as the worst that can happen at this point is that they land a better draft pick.
28. Denver Broncos (3–7): -23 points. Last week: t26th, -15 pts. Best win: Dallas (18th). Worst loss: NY Giants (30th).
After a strong start to the season, the Broncos have now lost six straight. Denver won’t be mathematically eliminated for a few more weeks in the weak AFC, but based on their performances of late, there is no hope for this team making the playoffs. It’s time to give last year’s first round pick Paxton Lynch a shot at quarterback, if only to find out whether the Broncos need to spend another first rounder on a QB next year.
29. Indianapolis Colts (3–7): -27 points. Last week: 29th, -24 pts. Best win: @Houston (t21st). Worst loss: Arizona (t26th).
The Colts played the Steelers tight, but managed to hold onto their bottom-four spot in these rankings, keeping them well-positioned for a top-five pick in next year’s draft. The Colts don’t even have an exciting young quarterback to try out over their remaining games, as they are simply waiting until Andrew Luck is recovered from his injury next year. It’s a bleak season in Indianapolis.
30. New York Giants (2–8): -35 points. Last week: 30th, -39 pts. Best win: Kansas City (t10th). Worst loss: @San Francisco (31st).
The Giants can be proud of their impressive win over the tenth-ranked Chiefs. The win probably killed the Giants’ chances at the first overall pick, however, and put them behind the 49ers in the race for the second pick. The Giants have nothing left to play for except pride, though with three games remaining against NFC East rivals on the playoff bubble (the Cowboys and Redskins), they may be motivated to win a few more to keep those teams out of the playoffs.
31. San Francisco 49ers (1–9): -47 proints. Last week: 31st, -42 points. Best win: NY Giants (30th). Worst loss: @Indianapolis (29th).
The 49ers remained in second-to-last place over their bye week, and will have been happy to see the Giants pick up a win against Kansas City, moving the Niners into sole possession of the second pick in the draft. If San Francisco can stay winless over their final six games while the Browns win a game, the 49ers could secure the top overall pick. They currently would hold the tiebreaker over Cleveland by virtue of a weaker strength of schedule.
32. Cleveland Browns (0–10): -55 points. Last week: 32nd, -50 points. Best win: None. Worst loss: @Indianapolis (29th).
The Browns are running out of time to avoid being just the second 0–16 team in NFL history. A home game in Week 14 against Brett Hundley’s Packers and a Week 16 game in Chicago are probably Cleveland’s best chances at a win, though they are unlikely to be favored in either game.
