Use March Madness History to Pick a Perfect 2023 Second Chance Bracket
How history, seed expectations, coaching, & conferences can help choose the perfect NCAA tournament bracket…
SO YOUR 2023 MARCH MADNESS BRACKET IS ALREADY BUSTED. Happens to the best of us. Blame Purdue or Kansas or Marquette, or maybe just blame the Midwest in general. Perhaps your bracket is busted, or maybe you’re narrowing down Survivor pool options or joining a Second Chance bracket. Whatever the reason, you’ve come to the right place.
Last week, history gave us all sorts of bracket tips. It told us Purdue’s profile screamed danger and warned us to be very wary of Kansas and Marquette. It suggested Arkansas as a very dangerous middle seed and Michigan State as a serious sleeper. It even foresaw Virginia’s upset loss to Furman. Turns out we can learn quite a bit from school and conference history, coaches’ performance, seed expectations, geography, and even preseason rankings — almost as much as from the teams themselves.
So with the field down to a 16, let’s run it back and see if we can build the perfect Second Chance bracket with history as our guide. What can we learn about the Sweet Sixteen and March Madness going forward?
SOUTH REGION
(1) Alabama vs (5) San Diego State
In the modern tourney, 1-seeds are pretty dominant in the Sweet 16. They’re 89–27 (77%) against 4s and 5s, up to 19–3 since 2015. Against just 5-seeds, 1-seeds are a dominant 30–6 (83%), including 18–1 the last seven tourneys. Additionally, 1-seeds are 44–7 (86%) against mid-majors in the Sweet 16. History suggests Alabama is north of 80% to win this game.
San Diego State may not have a great shot. The Mountain West has never advanced past the Sweet 16 (0–6), and the conference has only one tournament upset win since 2007. A defensive game could keep things close, but expect an Alabama win.
(6) Creighton vs (15) Princeton
We’ve never had a 6-vs-15 matchup, mostly because this is only the fourth 15-seed in the Sweet 16. Historic 14- and 15-seeds win only 11% of first-round games, but this Princeton team just beat two good opponents. Maybe this profiles more like a 4v13 matchup, which would put Princeton closer to 20–25%. No team below an 11-seed has ever made the Final Four.
Haven’t we learned not to count out the Ivy League, though? Since 2010, the conference has seven wins by 12-seeds or worse, plus four losses by five or less. The Ivy is 8–3 ATS since 2014, and double-digit Sweet 16 favorites the last 15 years like Creighton are 5–12 ATS. Such favorites against double-digit seeds are 2–8 ATS since 2017, and teams 14-seed or lower are a perfect 5–0 ATS in the Sweet 16. Those underdogs are barking.
Princeton has a glut of close games and a serious coaching advantage. The Tigers may keep this close and have a real chance.
SOUTH ANALYSIS
The Crimson Tide have lucked into a pretty wide open draw with those first-round losses by 2 Arizona and 4 Virginia. Bama has never made a Final Four, but neither has their remaining competition (modern era). Alabama has only even made one Elite 8, just 1–6 in the Sweet 16. The #1 overall seed has made 8 of the last 18 Final Fours, winning around 75% each round up to that stage, but has only won the whole thing three times.
The best team in the bracket has the easiest remaining quadrant, then the softest semifinal draw. Alabama is easily the most likely team to play in the national title game right now. If they do get upset, the left half of the bracket gets blown wide open.
If it’s not Alabama coming out of the South, Creighton is the clear favorite. They get to face by far the worst team left, and San Diego State definitely has to play Alabama.
Alabama 59%
Creighton 25%
San Diego State 9%
Princeton 7%
EAST REGION
(4) Tennessee vs (9) Florida Atlantic
It’s tempting to count out these 8-to-9 seeds as long shots at this stage, but history warns us to take them seriously at 14–8 ATS in the Sweet 16. They’re actually 11–7 against 4-to-5 seeds in the Sweet 16, an outright winning record despite being underdogs in every one of those games. In fact, seven of 22 teams (32%) in that 8-to-9 range that made the Sweet 16 went on to make the Final Four, obviously including North Carolina one year ago, the sixth such team this century. Four of them even went on the title title game, like UNC. Over their last nine games, 4-seeds are 2–7 ATS against 8s and 9s in the Sweet 16. Mid-majors like FAU in these matchups are 1–5, though.
Both of these teams look a bit underseeded. Conference USA has now won a game in six of eight tourneys, though this is their top seed and furthest team since Memphis left. The Owls are a top 25 team, good on both ends of the court, and Florida Atlantic has two tough tourney wins.
Tennessee tends to have big wins but struggle or lose in close games. Rick Barnes has coached in the Final Four but is now just 3–14 ATS since 2009 and 2–11–1 ATS as a seed favorite this century. The Volunteers defend like maniacs but can struggle offensively when they don’t dominate the glass or force turnovers, and FAU should limit both. Tennessee has never made a Final Four, and they’ve been upset all seven times as a top-4 seed without even making the Elite 8.
(3) Kansas State vs (7) Michigan State
As you might guess, 3-seeds win this matchup historically, though just 60% of the time at 9–6 and only three comfortable wins in those 15 games. This is also a pretty similar seed matchup to a lot of those 2/7 and 3/6 second round games we get each year. The better seed is 108–57 (65%) in those.
The seeds probably don’t tell the whole story here, though. Kansas State needed big 3s and ice cold shooting to beat Kentucky, and they were totally unranked in the preseason and haven’t made a Final Four since 1964. They play fast and entertaining ball, but that also leads to a glut of fouls and turnovers and poor rebounding. That makes them vulnerable to the wrong opponent that can slow them down and hurt them in those areas — a team like MSU or especially Tennessee.
Unlike first-year Kansas State coach Jerome Tang, Tom Izzo is now 55–22 in March with eight Final Fours. Three of those came as a 5-to-7 seed, where he’s now an incredible 20–8, almost triple seed expectations. Michigan State’s profile on paper isn’t impressive, but they’re peaking at the right time like usual, and Izzo gives them an edge and a chance in any game.
EAST ANALYSIS
This is the biggest toss-up region remaining.
The Vols are favorites now after beating Duke convincingly, but teams that beat Duke are just 3–9 in their following tourney game the last 15 years. Tennessee remains vulnerable. They match up well with Kansas State but may struggle as favorites against FAU or MSU.
Michigan State is a betting favorite against K-State, and if they win, Izzo is 24–7 in tournament games with one day of prep, an incredible record. The Spartans are a real Final Four threat — maybe as much as Tennessee. And don’t count out Florida Atlantic. This is a good, well-tested team with the talent to hang with anyone left in this wide-open region. Kansas State is the best remaining seed, but their vulnerabilities still make them a long shot.
Tennessee 31%
Michigan State 27%
Florida Atlantic 22%
Kansas State 20%
MIDWEST REGION
(1) Houston vs (5) Miami
The seed analysis here is about the same as for Alabama vs San Diego State. It feels like this should be a close battle, but 1-seeds are 89–27 (77%) against 4-to-5 seeds and 30–6 (83%) against just 5s. That’s probably even truer considering Miami looks way overseeded and Houston is probably the best team in basketball on paper.
Houston remains the toughest decision in your bracket. I detailed some of the key red flags in last week’s article:
- No national champion from a non-power conference since 1990
- Mid-major 1-seeds are 29–10 this century with only 3 Final Fours and an average outcome of an Elite 8 loss
- Since its inaugural season, 16 of 18 AAC tourney wins have come against 8-seeds or lower, and only four of those 16 wins after the first round
- Kelvin Sampson has a pair of Final Fours, but six top-3 seeds were upset four times and lost ugly in their two Final Four berths
- Houston’s two lead guards, Marcus Sasser and Jamal Shead, are both playing through injury and lead the team in minutes
- The Cougars would play right at home in Houston in the Final Four but were eliminated in the Elite 8 in San Antonio last March
Miami and Jim Larranaga are the much worse team but have been dangerous underdogs — but when the Hurricanes do lose, they’re often blown out. Larranaga’s average tourney loss is by 17.3 PPG, five by 20+.
(2) Texas vs (3) Xavier
This looks like a toss-up by seeding, but 2-seeds are a robust 35–21 against 3-seeds in the Sweet 16, a 63% win rate, including 10–7 the last decade. These games aren’t always as close as you’d think, either. Twelve of the last 15 (80%) of these 2v3 matchups have been won by double digits.
Texas has been a top-4 seed seven times this century, losing six times to a worse — and usually close — seed. Interim coach Rodney Terry has already taken this as far as most interim coaches go, unless they’re Steve Fisher in 1989 who won the title with Michigan. The Big 12 has back-to-back titles but only one the previous 23 years.
Xavier has a history of keeping these games close as an underdog. Sean Miller has 11 tournament losses, and nine of them are by seven or less, usually to a top seed. Xavier has been eliminated by a top-3 seed in 10 of 14 tournaments, six of those 10 by five or less or in overtime.
Miller is 8–1 ATS as a tournament underdog but has won only three of those games. Texas is 2–10–2 ATS since 2010. History says Xavier keeps things close but probably ends in heartbreak, if not to Texas then to Houston.
MIDWEST ANALYSIS
Miami is a dangerous dog but a long shot with three other really good teams in this quadrant, and Xavier and Sean Miller almost always end in heartbreak to a top seed. Again, the bracket here makes Houston a sizable favorite since they get to play the weak link of the four.
The most likely outcome is our one potential 1v2 matchup in the Elite 8, with Houston vs Texas in a battle for state pride. Those games are close to a coin flip historically, with 2-seeds holding the slightest edge at 24–23 in the Elite 8. Unlike 2v3 games, the 1v2 battles tend to be tight all the way. Each of the last four finished within five points.
Houston is the best team in the bracket but has a number of red flags, key injuries, and a difficult path that includes the toughest non-favorite in any quadrant and a difficult semifinal opponent. This won’t be easy.
Houston 46%
Texas 26%
Xavier 20%
Miami 8%
WEST REGION
(4) Connecticut vs (8) Arkansas
UConn has been shooting the cover off the ball and looks like a team to beat, but be careful. Remember, history says not to overlook these 8-to-9 seeds in the Sweet 16. They actually have a winning 11–7 record there against 4-and-5 seeds, with seven such seeds making the Final Four and four even heading to the title game. Arkansas is not just any 8-seed — they’re an 8-seed that just beat a 1-seed to get here.
Then again, UConn is not just any 4-seed. The Huskies won a title in 2004 as a 2-seed, 2011 as a 3-seed, and 2014 as a 7-seed. They’re the only team left in the tourney with a championship since 2000, the lone remaining blue blood. The Huskies tend to either get upset big or make deep runs, and they profile more like a 1-seed and were considered the best team in the country earlier this season, including a 15-point win over Alabama.
Arkansas was supposed to be in that mix as a preseason top 10 team but never really got there. The Hogs used to be a blue blood too but haven’t made a Final Four since 1995. This team’s ceiling is very high, but inconsistency has plagued the Razorbacks.
Eric Musselman has pulled some big upsets. He’s upset a 1-seed two years in a row — 4/1 over Gonzaga last year and now 8/1 over Kansas — and also had a 7/2 upset win with Nevada. The Huskies foul a lot and the Hogs can live at the line, and a top recruiting class is hitting its stride. Don’t rule Arkansas out — maybe against anyone.
(2) UCLA vs (3) Gonzaga
This final matchup might be the marquee event of the Sweet 16 in what has become a classic rivalry, first with the Adam Morrison crying game, then the epic Jalen Suggs half-court winner at the Final Four.
The seeds look like a toss up, but 2-seeds are 35–21 (63%) against 3-seeds, including four straight wins against mid-majors — if Gonzaga even qualifies as that anymore. The Zags are the best offense in college, and Drew Timme is unstoppable at times and 2–0 against UCLA. Mark Few has made 21 of 24 Sweet 16s but only six Elite 8s and two Final Fours. Few is 32–11 the first two rounds but only 8–11 after, and Gonzaga doesn’t play much defense.
UCLA has plenty of its own history, now 27–5 as a top-2 seed in the modern era. They have 11 titles and 19 Final Fours, though only the 1995 title and five Final Fours since the early 70s. Don’t forget, the PAC-12 hasn’t won a championship since 1997 and hasn’t even been there since UCLA lost in the title game in 2006. Teams from the West Coast are 0–4 in the title game this century — bad news for both of these teams.
The Bruins entered the tournament with college’s #1 defense, but the injuries are starting to add up. They’re without top defender and best player Jaylen Clark. Second best defender Adam Bona played last round and will be important defending Timme, but he’s still a bit limited. Now a late injury to David Singleton puts him in question too, and he’s probably UCLA’s third best player and another plus defender.
A healthy UCLA could contend for the title in this wide-open year, but the Bruins are getting farther from that each game. What will happen when the #1 offense of Gonzaga meets the #1 defense in UCLA? We may not get our answer if that defense is not whole.
WEST ANALYSIS
With 1-seed Kansas gone, it’s easy to assume the 2v3 matchup will determine the West favorite, especially playing close to home. History says that may not be the case. When 2-and-3 seeds play in the Elite 8 against 4-and-5 seeds —assuming UConn gets there — they’re only 5–9 there, losing eight of the last 11.
Given Gonzaga’s lack of defense and UCLA’s injuries plus the seed history, the UConn-Arkansas winner may actually be the favorite out West. This is such a dangerous region for your bracket even without Kansas because all four teams have a real chance to come out, and any one of them could win a game or two in the Final Four too.
Arkansas lives at the line and UConn fouls a lot. If the Huskies can stay out of foul trouble and get past the Hogs, they have some key matchup advantages against either West Coast opponent. They’re a slight favorite out West, but all four teams are very live.
UConn 31%
UCLA 29%
Gonzaga 22%
Arkansas 18%
FINAL FOUR PICKS
South: Alabama
East: Tennessee or Michigan State
Midwest: Houston
West: UConn or UCLA
Sure, probably not the most shocking looking Final Four picks, but let’s be fair. The NCAA tournament is a war of attrition, but the best teams typically tend to win out in the end.
In 14 of the last 16 Final Fours, the lowest seed left didn’t win another game. UNC bucked that trend last year before falling in the title game, but that’s bad news for whoever comes out of the East since that’s likely the lowest seed left — and great news for whoever wins the South. That’s why Alabama has the best odds to make the title game, and thus win it.
And in the end, a 1-seed almost always wins this thing. A whopping 12 of our last 15 champs — 80% of them!! — are 1-seeds. The other champions were 2, 3, and 7-seeds, and that 3-seed was the best seed left when it arrived. Only two teams have won the title as a 4-seed or worse in the last three decades. Only three 3-seeds have titles, two of the three in a year where they were the top seed left in the Final Four.
It’s not exciting, but 1-seeds tend to dominate once they survive and make the Final Four. They’re now 40–15 on Final Four weekend against non 1-seeds, an impressive 73% win rate. That includes 23 of the last 26 (88%), and it meant a title for last year’s only 1-seed, Kansas. Heck, even 1v2 matchups on Final Four weekend are tilted heavily in favor of the 1-seed at 14–6 (70%) all time.
We’re down to only four top-2 seeds and only two 1-seeds. History says Alabama or Houston will be our national champion. Houston might be the better team but has the much more difficult path. Alabama is the favorite — and they should be.
CHAMPIONSHIP PICK
Alabama or Houston — whichever one makes the Final Four ■
Give your Final Four picks in the comments below! Who ya got?? Feel free to ask any questions below, too.
Brandon is a full-time NBA and NFL staff writer at The Action Network. You can also follow him on Medium or @wheatonbrando for more sports, television, humor, and culture. Visit the rest of Brandon’s writing archives here.
Shouts to my usual March Madness readers Jody, Curt, Brianne, Josh, Luke, Jim, Todd, Matthew, David, Gutbloom, Ianic, Lon, , Rebekah, Rob, Becky, Jonny, Jonathan, Tim, Mark, Ethan, Fleet, Rajan, Ivan, Aellé, and others!
