Use March Madness History to Pick the Perfect 2023 Bracket
How history, coaching, conferences & seed expectations can help you choose the perfect NCAA tournament bracket…
MARCH MADNESS IS BACK, and you’re trying to fill out the perfect bracket yet again. As always, you’re looking for any advantage you can find. Everyone uses Four Factors and KenPom these days, so where can we find an edge? Perhaps by looking through the lens of the past.
We’ve been here before in 2022, 2021, 2019, 2018, and 2017 with real proven success, so run it back again. Like usual, we’ll break down each team and region by looking back at the past.
History doesn’t always repeat itself — after all, it’s called March Madness for a reason! — but it does provide great predictive indicators. Like with fantasy football, it’s impossible to predict the good with any accuracy, but it’s just as helpful to rule out 20–30% of our options and steer away from the bad.
This year looks particularly tricky. Reliable blue bloods are having down years (Duke! Kentucky!) or are out altogether (North Carolina! Villanova!), and some of our most reliable coaches have retired. Red flags abound for some of the teams at the top in 2023. It could be a topsy-turvy year filled with upsets!
Let’s start with a few of the historical factors worth considering. The method to my madness, if you will…
The Methodology to the Madness
- School history — Does the team have a long history of success? Is this their best team ever? For teams with plenty of history, what’s their history in more recent games or within this specific seed range?
- Coach history — College players change every season. The coach is the one constant through the years, so coaching history can tell us a lot. What do we know about the head coach? How has he done in the past, here or elsewhere? How’s he performed as an underdog or favorite? How does he do with a week to prepare vs. one day?
- Seed expectations — History tells us what to expect from each seed in the tournament; 1-seeds are expected to make deep runs while 4s and 5s should only win a game or two, and 14s and 15s aren’t expected to win at all. A team that went 2–2 as a 12-seed is far more accomplished than a 2-seed that went 4–4. What schools routinely over or underperform?
- Conference history — For teams from mid-majors or small conferences, how has their conference done in the past? Is there a history of upsets from the conference, especially recently? Have other similar conference teams pulled the upset you want to predict?
- Preseason expectations — What did everyone expect before the games began? It seems silly, but game results contain heavy variance, and preseason rankings help offset recency bias, close finishes, and injuries.
- Logistics — Do any teams have quick, difficult turnarounds? Is anyone traveling a long ways across the country or tipping off at an oddly early time for their body clocks? Do any teams have a geographic advantage? That may mean extra fans and leave players comfortable close to home.
Important note: the “history” we’re considering here includes games since the creation of the modern 64-team tournament in 1985, just so we can compare everyone on a relatively even playing field. That gives us 37 years of data, well over 2,000 games (I don’t count the play-ins).
Remember, just because history suggests something is unlikely doesn’t mean it can’t happen. That’s not how statistics work, and half the fun of March Madness is all the shocking and unpredictable results. Still, we can use the historical trends and percentages to game the system in our favor.
We can actually learn a lot about the future just by looking at the past…
SOUTH REGION
(1) Alabama vs (16) Texas A&M Corpus Christi / SE Missouri State
Alabama has never even been a 1-seed, let alone the #1 overall seed. Bama has only even been a top-3 seed twice, and both times ended badly with 10/2 and 6/2 upset losses. The Crimson Tide have made just two Sweet 16s since 1991 and had not won the conference since then either until doing it twice in the last three years. Alabama has never made the Final Four.
This is coach Nate Oats’ fourth season with Alabama. His 2-seed made the Sweet 16 in 2021 but was upset there by an 11, and he was upset 11/6 last year. He had a bit more success with Buffalo, including a notable 13/4 upset over Arizona that helped land him this job, but we don’t know a ton yet.
As John Calipari dominated the SEC for years, I noticed that the best non-Kentucky team typically fared pretty well. They’re 25–12 overall and have only underperformed seed expectations five times, but that trend is fading lately as UK fades too, including Alabama’s underperformance in 2021.
The team on the top left of your bracket is the #1 overall seed. Only one such team in the last eight years has even made the Final Four, and only one the last 10 years has won the whole thing. Since we started naming a #1 overall seed in 2004, that team has gone on to win the title just three times (17%), though eight of 18 (44%) made the Final Four. Four of them (22%) were knocked out before the Sweet 16.
Alabama is one of the youngest teams in the bracket, and star freshman Brandon Miller looks like the best player in college basketball. Miller has been accused of providing a gun to now-former teammate Darius Miles, which was used in the murder of 23-year-old Jamea Harris. I’ll let you read more about that event and its fallout within the program (or lack thereof) and make your own decision.
Alabama has a very strong profile as a team, but the pressure is high from a number of angles and they’ve never had a target on them like this before — and haven’t fared well when it’s been even close this big.
It’s rare to find the OVC buried this low, but SEMO tied for fifth before springing a tourney upset. Corpus Christi was the class of a usually weak Southland and looks the much better foe. Both conferences have some recent history of upsets, but it probably won’t happen as 16-seeds.
(8) Maryland vs (9) West Virginia
Maryland had a great tournament run around the turn of the century but has only one Sweet 16 since 2004. They’re 0–8 against top-6 seeds since then but 9–1 against everyone else. This is Kevin Willard’s first season coaching Maryland. He went 1–5 with Seton Hall, all but one of those games as an 8- to 10-seed in this coin flip range.
West Virginia has far outperformed expectations over the last two decades. Bob Huggins’ guys typically force a ton of turnovers, which could give Alabama issues if they get there and makes for a volatile team. Huggins is unreliable as a favorite but dangerous as an underdog. He’s now 19–6 in the first round but only 9–10 in the second. His teams can typically upset anyone but also have a tendency to lose ugly when they go.
West Virginia went only 7–11 in a tough conference but is safely in the field anyway. At-large teams that finished four games under .500 are a perfect 5–0 in first round games.
(5) San Diego State vs (12) College of Charleston
Fans of the Mountain West, look away. The conference has never made it past the Sweet 16 and went 0–4 last year. Its top-6 seeds this century are an ugly 10–13, barely half expectations with seven losses to double-digit seeds. The MWC is 14–19 as a seed favorite and has only one upset win since 2007.
San Diego State is clearly the class of the conference, but the Aztecs are 6–12 all time. They did make two Sweet 16s with their two best seeds ever (2 and 4), and it’s worth noting that their one truly great team was robbed of a potential tournament run by Covid in 2020. Coach Brian Dutcher is 0–3 in the tourney, all with SDSU. The entire 9-man rotation is upperclassmen.
Beware a potential slow start for the Aztecs. They have the longest flight of any team, heading east to Orlando for a noon local start tip on Thursday.
They’ll face 31–3 Charleston, with just one tourney win ever, a 12/5 upset back in 1997. The Cougars have just one appearance this century, and the CAA is winless the last nine years since its top teams left but 11–4–1 ATS in its last 16 games. Coach Pat Kelsey went 0–2 with a pair of double-digit losses at Winthrop despite similarly gaudy records. Charleston plays fast and takes a ton of 3s, so they’ll try to outgun the Aztecs.
(4) Virginia vs (13) Furman
Longtime readers know to fear Virginia. The Cavaliers consistently have one of the most upset-prone profiles. They play super slow, allowing opponents to hang around, and tend to overperform in the regular season and get over-seeded in March. This team finished second in a bad ACC and profiles more like an 8-seed than a 4, with a far worse defense than usual.
Virginia entered the tourney with a top-3 seed in five of the past eight years and won one title but also lost to 4, 7, 10, and 16-seeds. Even the title run needed a number of close escapes. They have only four wins against a 7-seed or better, three from that title year, and three of their last four losses came to teams seeded 9 or worse.
Tony Bennett is an ugly 7–13 ATS with Virginia, even with that title run. He ranks 275th among 2777 coaches ATS since 2009.
Furman will be a popular upset pick, but the Southern is only 3–43 all time as a 12-seed or worse, the last such win by Chattanooga in 1997. It should be noted, though, that Chattanooga came just one point short as a 13 seed one year ago. This ends a 43-year tourney drought for Furman, 15th longest in Division-I history, their first ever berth in the modern tournament. Furman’s mascot is a Paladin, a knight of Charlemagne’s court renowned for heroism and chivalry.
(6) Creighton vs (11) North Carolina State
Creighton was a preseason top 10 team but had a rough midseason 3–8 stretch to fall short of billing. The Blue Jays haven’t had much tournament success, and almost all of the good came with Doug McDermott. They’re 9–16 all time. They’ve never defeated a top-4 seed (0–8) and their last win against an 8-seed or better was 2002. Coach Greg McDermott is an ugly 4–10–1 ATS in tourney games, including 2–5–1 ATS as a seed favorite.
Historically, NC State has been a dangerous March underdog. They’re 19–16 in the modern tourney despite only three times getting better than a 5-seed, including 10–10 this century with only one team above a 7-seed. The Wolfpack have four double-digit seeds, with three of the four winning at least their first game. Coach Kevin Keatts is 0–3 in the tourney but had two closes losses with UNC Wilmington as 12 and 13-seeds.
(3) Baylor vs (14) UC Santa Barbara
Baylor had only one tourney appearance before 2008 but 10 appearances since, going 18–9 with a 2021 championship. Right before our eyes, the Bears are starting to establish themselves as one of the new elite forces of the sport.
Outside of that title run, 10 of Baylor’s 12 wins came against double-digit seeds. Scott Drew is 14–5 as a top-3 seed and has made five Sweet 16s. His teams have gotten lucky paths but have also fallen short of seed expectations just three times in 10.
The Big West is 7–31 since UNLV left, and the conference is 6–14 ATS in its last 20 as a seed underdog. Santa Barbara has just one modern tourney win. The Gauchos fell short of a 12/5 upset two years ago by just one point.
(7) Missouri vs (10) Utah State
Missouri had a pair of Elite 8 runs as 1 and 3-seeds awhile back but is 10–18 otherwise, including 3–11 in this 7-to-11-seed toss up range and 0–5 since 2010. First-year coach Dennis Gates is 0–1 with an ugly 15-seed loss.
Utah State is another one of those Mountain West teams. The MWC is 1–22 all time as a double-digit seed, only six of those losses even within seven points with the last win back in 2002, with just one upset win as a conference since 2007 despite multiple entries most seasons. The MWC is 10–17 this century in matchups with a 3-seed margin or less.
Utah State is 1–12 itself, responsible for quite a few of those losses, but first-year coach Ryan Odom did pull off that 16-seed UMBC upset in 2018. The Aggies are the much better team on paper but have a lot of history to overcome to even get out of the first round.
(2) Arizona vs (15) Princeton
Arizona has a history of heartbreak. They needed overtime to escape a 9/1 upset last year before being upset 5/1 in the next game, and that was the Wildcats’ first tourney games since losing 13/4 in 2018. As a top-3 seed, Arizona is 30–14 all time with five consecutive heartbreaking losses before that 5/1 Houston defeat. Those top-3 seeds have seen 15/2, 14/3, and 11/2 upsets. Arizona does have four Final Fours but hasn’t made it back since a 2001 loss in the title game, and their one championship came as a 4-seed.
The PAC-12 hasn’t won a title since that one in 1997 and hasn’t even made the championship game since 2006. Only four teams from the West Coast have made the title game all century, all losers. Arizona has another great team but will have to buck some history and heartbreak.
The Ivy League is typically a dangerous foe. Since 2010, the conference has four wins by 12-seeds, one by a 14, and three more losses by a bucket. This is a low seed for the Ivy though, and Princeton hasn’t won a tourney game since 1998 with only four appearances this century — though they did lose by two in 2011 and 2017. They could give Arizona a scare.
SOUTH REGION ANALYSIS
What a mess!
Alabama and Arizona are the deserving favorites but don’t have a ton of history on their side. History is betting against Virginia, San Diego State, and Creighton. Only Baylor has a quality history, and even that is mostly recent and still comes with some question marks.
This could be a great region for a sleeper. Otherwise the most likely scenario is probably just one of those top three teams — Alabama, Arizona, or Baylor — bucking a bit of recent history and heartbreak to make a Final Four run. You may want to look elsewhere for a champion, though.
EAST REGION
(1) Purdue vs (16) Texas Southern / Fairleigh Dickinson
Everything about Purdue’s profile screams DANGER.
The Boilermakers just keep getting upset. It looked like they finally escaped with a Sweet 16 berth last year as a 3-seed, only to lose to 15-seed St. Peter’s. The year before was a 13/4 upset to North Texas. They made the Elite 8 in 2019 but needed some miracle shot making to get there, and that was only Purdue’s third Elite 8 ever with no Final Fours in the modern tourney. They also have 12/5 and 11/3 losses since the start of last decade.
As a top-3 seed, Purdue is now 19–11, barely half what we’d expect. They’ve fallen short of seed expectations all but 2019, including upset losses to 4, 6, 8, 10, 11, and 15 seeds. Purdue profiles similarly to Virginia — it plays super slow and overperforms in the regular season, leaving it vulnerable and over-seeded in March.
This year’s team was unranked in the preseason polls, a red flag that’s warned us off of them in the past, though they just barely missed the top 25. The Big 10 last won a championship in 2000, though it has lost in the title game seven times since.
Purdue has the National Player of the Year in Zach Edey and as good a profile on paper as anyone, but that was always true of those top Virginia teams too. Can Matt Painter finally prove himself in the postseason? He’ll need to what Tony Bennett (the Virginia coach, not the famous singer) did and buck his own history to win it all.
Don’t count on a first-round loss. The NEC and SWAC are 1–54 combined. Texas Southern finished eighth in its own conference, and Fairleigh Dickinson is only here because Merrimack is ineligible.
(8) Memphis vs (9) Florida Atlantic
Last year was Memphis’s first tourney since 2014. The Tigers are 28–19 but just 10–13 as a 5-seed or lower with no Sweet 16s and no real upset since 1995. Penny Hardaway is 1–1 as a tourney coach after winning an 8v9 last year and nearly upsetting #1 overall Gonzaga. The AAC is now 16–17 since Louisville and UConn left. All but two of those wins came against 8-seeds or worse, though the conference is 10–6 in the first round.
This is Florida Atlantic’s second berth ever and by far their highest seed. It’s the highest seed for any Conference-USA team since Memphis left in 2013, the next highest a 12-seed by Middle Tennessee State who won a game. C-USA has won a game in five of the last seven tournaments, including upsets by 13, 13, 14, and 15 seeds.
The Owls lost their lone tourney game but went 31–3 this season, so this is their big chance. Single-digit seeds seeking their first tournament win ever are 4–2 this century, with teams like Wofford and Central Florida winning similar games in recent years.
Both of these teams are really good and likely under-seeded. This should be a heck of a first-round game, and whoever wins should give Purdue all it can handle.
(5) Duke vs (12) Oral Roberts
How much does Duke’s history matter now that Coach K finally retired? We have no idea, since Krzyzewski coached the entire modern era.
Duke was nearly invincible as a 1-seed under Coach K, going 54–10 with four titles and six losses by a bucket. As a 2 or 3-seed, that dropped to 43–16 with just one title and hadn’t made the Final Four since 1994 until last year.
Under Coach K, Duke was an incredible 32–4 in the first round since 1985 and 27–5 in the second, making 32 Sweet 16s in the last 38 tourneys. They were 46–13 in even rounds with one day to prep, and they lost to an 8-seed or worse only four times in the last 28 years — one of them, of course, his final game against North Carolina in the Final Four.
Historically, Duke was relatively easy to predict — either they’re a 1 seed or they’re not good enough.
So how much does any of that matter under Jon Scheyer? Hard to say.
Heck, this is only the fourth time since 1987 that Duke has even been a 4-seed or worse. They went 2–3 in the previous appearances, with the 4-seed making a Sweet 16, so there’s not much to learn.
Is Duke still Duke? They finished 21–4 after a 5–4 start and might be the hottest team in the country now that the team finally got healthy, looking like the preseason top 8 team with an elite recruiting class. The slow start matters, though. A 5-seed means a much more difficult path, and it also means not starting the opening weekend in nearby Greensboro with its usual home court advantage.
Duke might be the most difficult decision in your bracket. They have the talent to win the whole thing in a wide open year, or they could stumble early with a young team and a rookie head coach.
Oral Roberts could test them immediately. This team made the Sweet 16 as a 15-seed in 2021 with star guard Max Abmas, and he’s back for another run after a perfect 18–0 conference record. The Summit League is 3–14 all time, two of those wins in that ORU run, but this ties for the conference’s highest seed ever. Its three other 12-seeds won a game (NDSU!) and lost by 5 and 8.
(4) Tennessee vs (13) Louisiana-Lafayette
Tennessee has an ugly history. They’ve been a top-4 seed seven times and have been upset every single time with just three Sweet 16s and no Elite 8s, including upsets by 7, 8, 11, 11, and 12 seeds. The Vols have never made the Final Four.
Don’t count on that to change under Rick Barnes. The numbers are ghastly. He’s 25–26 in the tourney, far short of expectations. He did make a Final Four with Texas but is just 22–12 as a seed favorite and an awful 1–11 as an underdog. Barnes is 2–13 ATS since 2009. He’s also 7–15 ATS as a seed favorite in the last two decades, and he’s 2–9 ATS with one day to prep including 1–7 ATS as a favorite.
Tennessee has a nasty defense and a great profile on paper, but you’ll never find this column telling you to back Rick Barnes.
Louisiana is 1–6 in the modern tourney with a 13/4 upset win back in 1992. The Sun Belt is 6–19 but does have four upsets since 2008, three by 12-seeds and one by 14-seed Georgia State. Coach Bob Marlin lost his one tourney game as a 14-seed. The Ragin’ Cajuns will need a big game from transfer and former McDonald’s All-American Jordan Brown to spring the upset.
(6) Kentucky vs (11) Providence
Kentucky has long been one of the safest and best bets on the bracket, regardless of seed number. In 10 tournaments under John Calipari, UK has made seven Elite 8s and four Final Fours. They’re 31–9 in that stretch, averaging 3.1 wins and an Elite 8 berth despite four of those teams starting as 4, 4, 5, and 8-seeds and despite Kentucky’s recent failures.
Calipari teams had been nearly immune to upsets until recently. They’re 20–3 all time against seeds 2+ below them, but those three losses came in Kentucky’s last three tournaments: 9/5 to Kansas State in 2018, 5/2 to Auburn the following year, and the stunning 15/2 upset by St. Peter’s last spring. Even including his time in Memphis, Calipari has only five losses in 17 tournaments to teams lower than a 3-seed.
The big question is how much that history still holds. It’s fallen short three straight times for Calipari, who is suddenly on the hot seat. And though it used to make sense that Kentucky’s seed didn’t matter since Calipari started over with freshmen every year and got them to peak in March at the right time, his latest teams are built around transfer upperclassmen and this year’s squad returned the National Player of the Year, Oscar Tshiebwe.
Kentucky’s history under Calipari says to treat them as a 1 or 2-seed, regardless of the actual seed number. You’ll have to decide if that history is outdated with how things have gone in recent years. They were the preseason #4 team with a few first-place votes, so the potential is there.
Providence shares a Kentucky history with Rick Pitino, but it’s only 3–9 outside of that Elite 8 run (shouts to God Shammgod!). Ed Cooley is 3–5 with a Sweet 16 berth a year ago but has yet to beat a team above an 8-seed.
(3) Kansas State vs (14) Montana State
Kansas State gets its second highest seed ever. It made the Elite 8 as a 2-seed in 2010 and has three Elite 8 runs, including 1988 as a 4-seed and 2018 as a 9-seed that lucked into 16-seed UMBC in the second round. The Wildcats are 7–7 as a top-6 seed but fell to 13/4 upsets twice in the last decade, and they haven’t made a Final Four since 1964.
The Wildcats were totally unranked in both preseason polls without even a stray vote, so they have vastly outperformed expectations. First-year coach Jerome Tang is half-Indian, quarter-Black, quarter-Chinese and has led his squad to a pretty great story but they look over-seeded and vulnerable.
Montana State is back after losing by 35 in the first round a year ago. They’re 0–3 all time and the Big Sky is 3–37 with double-digit losses in 12 of the last 15 tourneys, with an average loss of over 19 points in that span.
(7) Michigan State vs (10) USC
March means it’s Tom Izzo season. Izzo is now 53–22 all time, far above expectations with one title and eight Final Fours, three of them as a 5-seed or worse. As a 5-to-7 seed, Izzo is an impressive 18–8 with five Sweet 16s, four Elite 8s, and three Final Fours, more than double expectations.
Michigan State has made every tournament from 1998 forward with 16 Sweet 16s in 26 tourneys and eight Final Fours in that span, nearly a 1-in-3 chance of a Final Four any given year. Izzo also almost never gets upset. You remember the 15/2 Middle Tennessee State upset in 2016, but Izzo’s MSU has been upset only seven of the past 26 tournaments, and every opponent other than MTSU went on to make the Final Four.
Tom Izzo just knows how to coach in March. His teams are also an unbelievable 23–7 with one day to prepare. MSU will play opening weekend in Columbus and should have plenty of home fans, especially after an emotional year on campus.
The Spartans could get a timing bonus when they tip Friday at Noon in Columbus, 9am Pacific time for USC. The Trojans have seven wins as a 6-seed or lower, most of them from Elite 8 runs in 2001 and 2021. Coach Andy Enfield also took 15-seed Florida Gulf Coast on a memorable Sweet 16 run, and he’s 10–2 ATS in the tournament.
Either way, this won’t be the first time the Trojans battle the Spartans.
(2) Marquette vs (15) Vermont
Marquette had a great run in the 1970s, culminating with a National Championship in 1977, but this 2-seed is their best ever in the modern era. They did perform well three times as a 3-seed, including an Elite 8 in 2013 and a Final Four with Dwyane Wade in 2003. The team has made just five Sweet 16s.
Shaka Smart had a memorable Final Four run with 11-seed VCU in 2011 but is an awful 2–8 since with upset losses as 3, 5, 6, and 7-seeds, including a 14/3 Abilene Christian loss with Texas that got him fired and headed to Marquette. He’s now lost an NCAA record six straight tournament openers as a 10-seed or better, and he’s 1–7 as a favorite or underdog of four or less.
Marquette is another team that was totally unranked in the preseason polls, nary a vote in either poll. They were picked ninth in their own conference. History tells us to be very wary of teams that outperformed expectations by such a wide amount.
The AMEC is only 2–25 all time, though one win was the only 16-seed to win ever (UMBC) and the other was a 13/4 upset by these Catamounts. Vermont lost by four as a 13-seed a year ago. That’s been a running theme with this conference, which has seen six of its last 11 first-round matchups within 10 but only two closer than seven.
EAST REGION ANALYSIS
It’s hard to remember a quadrant more upside down than this one feels.
All four top seeds — Purdue, Marquette, Kansas State and Tennessee — have major red flags warning us away. The three teams seeded 5-to-7 — Duke, Kentucky, and Michigan State — are the traditional blue bloods everyone would expect to come out.
Before the season started, no one would’ve flinched if you said these would be the seven top seeds in a March quadrant. But we would’ve probably expected something more like 1 Kentucky, 2 Duke, 3 Michigan State, 4 Tennessee, 5 Purdue, 6 Kansas State, 7 Marquette. Instead, these seed rankings are almost the exact opposite.
This quadrant is the bracket in a nutshell. Are the old blue bloods fading and it’s time to turn things over to new teams with new history? Or will the usual favorites reclaim the throne after an upside down regular season?
We trust history until proven otherwise. That means staying away from Purdue, Marquette, Kansas State, and Tennessee. And it means trusting Duke, Kentucky, or Michigan State to make a run, despite their recent foibles. Good luck guessing which one.
MIDWEST REGION
(1) Houston vs (16) Northern Kentucky
Houston is the most important decision you will make on your bracket. Think of Houston as this year’s big Gonzaga decision.
We haven’t had a national champion from a non-power conference since UNLV in 1990. Even that conference had three bids, and ditto Louisville in 1986. That’s bad news for Houston and the AAC, a mid-major with just two bids, and it’s why they’re this year’s Gonzaga. The Zags, remember, have made two recent national championships but have yet to close the deal.
Mid-major 1-seeds have gone 29–10 this century. That’s well short of seed expectations, an average finish just short of the Elite 8. That’s great news for most mid majors but disappointing when you’re a 1-seed. Six of the 10 (60%) made the Elite 8. Only three (30%) made the Final Four, all of them going on to lose in the title game. Three others didn’t even make the Sweet 16. The teams that did make deep runs had future NBA players like Derrick Rose, Jalen Suggs, and Jameer Nelson. That could be good news for Houston with freshman Jarace Walker a likely top 10 pick and Marcus Sasser in the first-round mix too. Of course, Sasser is questionable with a groin injury, and he’s the team’s best and most important player.
The AAC is only 16–17 since its inaugural year that briefly included Louisville and UConn. It’s 10–6 in the first round but only 3–7 in the second, and 14 of the 16 wins came against 8-seeds or lower.
Is Houston starting to establish itself as a Gonzaga level threat? The Cougars made the Sweet 16 as a 3-seed in 2019, the first for the conference since 2014, and then made the Final Four in 2021 as a 1-seed — though they beat four double-digit seeds to get there and got blown out by Baylor once they arrived. Last year’s 5-seed upset 1-seed Arizona before a close loss in the Elite 8. Though it had great success in another era, Houston had never even won a game in the modern tourney until 2018. It’s now 10–8 but 7–2 the last two years.
Coach Kelvin Sampson has plenty of his own history. He’s now 22–16 with a pair of Final Fours. He’s had six top-3 seeds and gone 15–6. His teams were upset in four of the six appearances but made the Final Four in the other two, though even those ended pretty badly.
Houston is complicated. They’re the best team on paper, no matter how you slice the numbers, but they piled up a lot of those numbers against weak competition. They’re no surprise, #3 in the preseason rankings, and have the best metrics despite losing a lot of injury games this season. If the Cougars do make the Final Four, they’ll play right there at home in Houston.
The Cougars are probably the best team in college basketball this year, but that doesn’t always add up to six wins and a title. History says mid-majors and Kelvin Sampson alike tend to fall short, which could mean an Elite 8 exit on the brink of the Final Four. Or maybe this will be the team that finally finishes the job.
The Horizon League hasn’t won a game since Butler left. They’re 0–10 with an average losing margin of over 17 points in that span. Northern Kentucky had two of those losses, though they only became tourney-eligible in 2016 and coach Darrin Horn is actually 2–1 after leading Western Kentucky to a 12/5 upset and Sweet 16 run in 2008. The Norse look a bit more dangerous than your average 16-seed.
(8) Iowa vs (9) Auburn
Iowa is a high variance team that’s always a threat to upset or be upset. Their last Sweet 16 was 1999, and they lost 12/5 and 7/2 upsets the last two years. This team isn’t as strong but can still put up a huge number any game offensively. Fran McCaffrey is 6–7, including a perfect 4–0 in this coin flip 7-to-10 seed range, but he’s never made the Sweet 16.
Auburn is 18–10 in the modern tourney, pretty good for a team that’s had only four seeds higher than 7. They’re a perfect 10–0 in the first round but 8–10 after. They did make the Final Four in 2019 but also got upset 10/2 by Miami last year. Bruce Pearl has been on the wrong end of 10/2 and 7/2 upsets but also took 5-seed Auburn and 6-seed Tennessee to the Elite 8.
Auburn did luck into an odd early advantage. They’ll play opening weekend just two hours from home in Birmingham, which could give the 9-seed home court advantage over 1-seed Houston. Either one of these teams has the upside to give the Cougars a run.
(5) Miami (FL) vs (12) Drake
Miami made an Elite 8 run as a 10-seed last year but has only seven appearances the last two decades so there’s not much history here. They look overseeded as winners of a weak ACC and might be missing lone big man Norchad Omier with an ankle injury. Jim Larranaga has more history. His 11-seed George Mason made the Final Four but his teams have often been blown out since, with an average loss of over 17 points.
The MVC is typically a great place to look for sleepers. The conference has eight wins this century against top-3 seeds, all as 7-seeds or worse. In fact, eight consecutive MVC teams seeded 8 or worse had won at least won game until 10-seed Loyola lost its opener last year. Drake won a recent play-in but is 0–2 in the tourney proper
MVC 8x this century have beaten top 3 seed, all as 7 or worse… 8x MVC seeded 8 or worse have won at least a game until 10 Loyola in 22… MVC had won 9 straight first round since 12 before losing in 19, won again in 21 and technically Drake won play-in before losing first round, but lost in 22 as 10 seed by 13. Darian DeVries coached that play-in win before losing as an 11-seed, and his son Taylor is the team’s leading scorer.
(4) Indiana vs (13) Kent State
Indiana made the tourney last year for the first time since 2016 but got demolished in the first round. The Hoosiers are 13–11 in the 3-to-6 seed range with an ugly history of six losses to double-digit seeds, though all of those upsets came in 2001 or earlier. Mike Woodson is 0–1 in March Madness after four decades in the the NBA, most of them punctuated by early playoff exits. Indiana looks a bit over-seeded thanks to a pair of victories over Purdue, though it also survived a heap of injuries.
They’re up against another tough conference in the MAC. Nine of the last 13 MAC tourney teams (69%) either won their opening game or kept it to single digits. That includes four 13/4 upsets, and last year’s 13-seed lost by only four. In 25 games as a 12-to-14 seed, the MAC has nine upset wins and eight more losses by seven or less. That’s 17 of 25 games — 68%! — where the MAC representative at least gives us a close, dangerous game. The conference has had only one Sweet 16 since 2002 though, so don’t go crazy.
Kent State is 4–6, pretty good for a mid major, though they have only one appearance since 2008. The Golden Flashes made an Elite 8 run as a 10-seed with my buddy Trevor Huffman, and they had a 13/4 upset over these Hoosiers the year before. Don’t be surprised if lightning strikes twice.
(6) Iowa State vs (11) Mississippi State / Pittsburgh
Iowa State had a hot start before a 5–10 stretch and lost seven of their last eight road games. The Cyclones made the Sweet 16 as an 11-seed last year, their sixth ever, but they have just one Elite 8 and no Final Fours. Iowa State has been upset 11/6, 14/3, and 7/3 in the last decade, though that was all under Fred Hoiberg. TJ Otzelberger led last year’s run, and he’s 2–3 now in the tourney and in his second year with Iowa State.
The Cyclones will face the winner of a play-in game, and at least one play-in winner has won a first round game in 10 of 11 seasons since being added to the bracket. Five play-in winners went on to make the Sweet 16, including Final Four runs by VCU (2011) and UCLA (2021). Two of the four play-in winners are 16-seeds, which means history says that one of the other two play-in winners will upset their opponent in round one with effectively a 50/50 shot at making at least the Sweet 16.
Pittsburgh is 19–19 in the modern tourney despite nine tries as a top-3 seed, far short of expectations with only five Sweet 16s and no Final Fours. The Panthers are 1–7 as a 7-seed or worse, so they’re not exactly pulling upsets either. Jeff Capel is in his first tourney with Pitt but is 4–3 lifetime, though three of those wins came on an Elite 8 run with 2-seed Oklahoma.
Mississippi State has only 10 modern tourney appearances, but seven of the 10 came as a top-5 seed. Considering that, their 10–10 history is a bit disappointing with only a pair of Sweet 16s, though they did make the Final Four as a 5-seed in 1996. They’re 2–3 in the three tries below a 5-seed. First-year coach Chris Jans went 1–3 with New Mexico State and Bowling Green, all as a 12-seed, and was competitive in all four games.
(3) Xavier vs (14) Kennesaw State
Xavier is one of the best teams to never make a Final Four, and Sean Miller is one of the greatest coaches to never have made it. The two are finally back together now after over a decade apart while Miller led Arizona, and another strong team will give them another chance at heartbreak.
Xavier has an outstanding history, with at least one win in 12 of their last 14 tourneys despite a litter of 6, 6, 6, 7, 7, 9, 10, 11, and 14 seeds. That includes an Elite 8 run in 2017 as an 11-seed that beat 2, 3, and 6-seeds, another as a 7-seed, plus Sweet 16s by 6, 6, and 10-seeds. During that stretch, Xavier has been eliminated by a top-3 seed 10 of 14 times (71%), six of those defeats by five or less or in overtime.
Xavier hasn’t fared as well as the favorite at 8–5 as a top-4 seed, though the two of those teams that met seed expectations were under Sean Miller. Two others were upset 7/2 and 9/1 under Chris Mack.
Miller is now 19–11 with seven Sweet 16s and four Elite 8s, and he’s only been better than a 5-seed five times. His teams have at least met seed expectations in eight of 11 berths, and seven of the 11 losses were to top-3 seeds by five or less or in overtime. The three times short of expectations were 11/6, 11/2 (to Xavier!), and 13/4 upsets in Miller’s three most recent tourneys, which is why he’s back at Xavier now after Arizona moved on. He’s still 14–4 as a seed favorite but on an 0–3 streak.
Xavier won the NIT last year and returned most of its team, but Sean Miller and the Musketeers have a reputation of keeping it close on deep runs but not getting over the hump. They’re 0–7 combined in the Elite 8.
Kennesaw State is an incredible story after coach Amir Abdur-Rahim (NBA star Shareef’s brother) was 1–28 with these Owls just three years ago. They’re dancing now in their first ever Division I tourney, though they did win a D-II title in 2004. The Atlantic Sun is 4–19 all time.
(7) Texas A&M vs (10) Penn State
Texas A&M is 10–9 with three Sweet 16s including each of their last two tourneys. The Aggies have at least one win in seven of nine berths despite only three seeds above a 7, and all but one of those appearances are since 2006. This is Buzz Williams’ first trip with A&M, but he’s 10–8 lifetime with four Sweet 16s. This team made the NIT finals last year and was just outside the preseason top 25, and they finished second in the SEC behind the #1 overall seed Alabama, so they look a bit underseeded.
Penn State is just 3–4 in the modern tourney with a 13/4 upset over UCLA in 1991 and 7/2 over North Carolina in 2001. Micah Shrewsberry has his undersized team playing well in his second season, but the Nittany Lions don’t have much history.
(2) Texas vs (15) Colgate
Texas is 11–7 this century as a top-4 seed, knocked out in an upset with all but one of those teams and finishing well short of expectation, though a 14/3 stunner to Abilene Christian is the only big upset of the bunch. The Longhorns did make the Final Four as a top seed in 2003.
Texas fired its head coach midseason for misconduct, and interim Rodney Terry is 0–1 in the tourney. In the modern tournament, 10 teams entered with an interim head coach. Five of them lost their first game, but four made the Sweet 16 and Steve Fisher’s Michigan won it all in 1989. The Big 12 has won two straight titles after only one in the previous 23 years.
The Patriot League is only 3–29 all time but has lost by seven or less in four of the past five tourneys. Colgate is 0–5 but leads the nation at 41% on 3s, so you never know what could happen if the shots fall.
MIDWEST REGION ANALYSIS
If you’re looking for Cinderella, you’ve got some strong candidates in this quadrant. Drake, Kent State, and Miss State look like early Cinderellas, and Texas A&M could push for a deeper run. Indiana, Miami, and Iowa State don’t look super threatening, and Texas is tricky with an interim coach.
The strength is at the top of this quadrant though, and history says both Houston and Xavier will be very tough outs. The tricky part is choosing which one to go with, since history would suggest a heartbreaking Elite 8 exit for each and they can’t exactly both lose to one another.
Houston has the talent to win the whole thing, and they’re the betting favorite. What you decide to do with them will determine the fate of your bracket.
WEST REGION
(1) Kansas vs (16) Howard
Kansas is the reigning champion, which means the Jayhawks are now 45–13 with two titles in 15 appearances as a 1-seed. That looks pretty great but it’s still an average of exactly 3.0 wins an an Elite 8 exit, which is short of expectations and honestly sort of perfect since Bill Self is still just 2–7 in the Elite 8 despite being favored in eight of them, with the two rare wins coming against a pair of 10-seeds.
Even with two titles, I’m still not totally ready to trust 1-seed Kansas. Last year’s run included wins by 3, 5, and 7, plus a big Elite 8 comeback against 10-seed Miami and another title game comeback against 8-seed UNC. The other title was basically gone before a miracle Mario Chalmers shot in the dying moments. Outside of those two wins, 1-seed Kansas has losses to 8, 9, 9, and 11 seeds over the past few decades. In the last 15 years alone, Self and Kansas has been upset by 5, 6, 7, 10, 13, and 14 seeds.
Self has a pristine record at 35–6 with a full week to prepare, but he plummets to 20–15 with one day prep — and remember, that’s usually as the favorite. That includes the 2–7 Elite 8 record and a bunch of surprising second round exits. It’s tough when you’re almost always a top seed, no doubt, but Self has not held serve as well as other coaching greats.
The Big 12 has won two titles in a row but only three of the last 25, despite having a top-2 seed in 23 of them. The last champion to repeat was Florida in 2007. Since then, none of them have even made it past the Sweet 16.
Don’t count on Howard taking them down. The MEAC is usually in the play-in, but they’re 3–30 in the tourney proper and lost their last seven by at least 18 points.
(8) Arkansas vs (9) Illinois
Arkansas has made eight Sweet 16s, six Elite 8s, and a trio of Final Fours all with Nolan Richardson, but hasn’t been back since 1995. They were on the brink a year ago with a second straight Elite 8 run but fell short after knocking out #1 overall seed Gonzaga. As a toss up seed in the 6-to-11 range they are 6–11, though just 2–7 this century. This is a super talented preseason top 10 squad with the #1 recruiting class but faced more injuries than any other tourney team.
Eric Musselman leads the Razorbacks, and he’s 8–5 overall after the last two Elite 8 runs, both of which were helped by lucking into bonus double-digit seed opponents along the way. He had the big 4/1 upset over Gonzaga last year and also led a 7/2 Nevada over Cincinnati upset. Arkansas is the most dangerous middle seed in the field if they play to their potential.
Illinois is playing its third straight tournament after no berths since 2013. They’ve made some deep runs in the past but only as a top seed really. The Illini are led by Brad Underwood, who nabbed a pair of first round upsets with Stephen F. Austin as 12 and 14-seeds but has yet to make the Sweet 16.
(5) St. Mary’s vs (12) VCU
St. Mary’s continues to get high seeds and looks to be threatening Gonzaga in conference play, but non-Gonzaga WCC teams are just 5–15 this century. Most of that is St. Mary’s, now 4–10 all time including 4–8 with Randy Bennett with just one Sweet 16. This ties last year for the highest Gaels seed ever, but they have just two wins in four tries as an 8-seed or better.
St. Mary’s is located in California and will face a steep travel challenge to make the Sweet 16. They have to travel to Albany, NY, for an 11am local tip time against an East Coast squad, and a win would give them another disadvantage against either UConn or Iona and all their nearby fans.
You remember VCU’s Final Four run as an 11-seed in 2011, and perhaps the 11/6 upset over 2007 Duke too. The Rams are 7–8 as a double-digit seed, twice expectations. They’re 9–13 overall, though just the one Sweet 16. The Atlantic 10 is just 6–17 since 2014 without a Sweet 16, though Richmond did grab a 12/5 upset last spring. A10 teams in this 11-to-13 seed range are 11–10 since 2009, with seven of the 10 winning at least once.
(4) Connecticut vs (13) Iona
If you’re looking for a total wildcard, you just found one. UConn has a history of making deep runs as a middle seed but just as much history of getting upset big. The Huskies were upset 12/5 last year and 10/7 in 2021 and haven’t made it out of the first round since 2016, but they’ve made 15 tournaments since 1999 and won it all four times.
UConn won the title as a 7-seed in 2014, a 3-seed in 2011, and a 2-seed in 2004. The Huskies have made eight Elite 8s in 25 years, but they’ve also suffered 12/5, 13/4, 10/2, and 11/1 upsets. They’ve won four titles in five Final Fours but lost in the first round four times too. UConn is way over expectations overall, but they run extremely hot and cold and haven’t made the Sweet 16 since that 2014 title run. Dan Hurley is just 0–1 with UConn and 2–4 overall in the tourney.
UConn gets a tough draw against Rick Pitino’s Iona. Pitino is a coaching legend, even if he has one foot out the door, and will play near home after a 17–3 conference run. The Gaels are 0–11 in the tourney but rep the MAAC, now 8–37 after 15-seed St. Peter’s historic run to the Elite 8 last year.
(6) TCU vs (11) Arizona State / Nevada
TCU has only two appearances since 1998 and just modern tourney wins ever, though they got awfully close to a huge 9/1 upset of Arizona last year. Jamie Dixon is 13–13 and has never exceeded seed expectations outside of a 9/8 upset, on the wrong end of 8/1, 6/3, 13/5, and 11/6 upsets himself. He’s an ugly 8–14 ATS, including 5–11 ATS as a seed favorite and 1–8 ATS with one day of prep.
TCU could be an upset candidate against a play-in winner. Remember, at least one play-in winner has won a first round game in 10 of 11 tourneys. Five play-in winners made the Sweet 16, including Final Four runs. History says one of the two non-16-seed two play-in winners will nab a first round with effectively a 50/50 shot at making at least the Sweet 16.
Arizona State will feel right at home in Dayton in its third consecutive play-in. The Sun Devils are 1–1 in those play-in games under Bobby Hurley but he’s 0–2 in the tourney proper, and ASU is just 5–6 in the modern era.
Nevada is another one of those MWC teams. Remember, MWC squads are 10–17 this century in toss-up games with only one upset win since 2007 and an awful 1–22 record all time as a double-digit seed. Steve Alford has a long history but it’s not great at 11–10, with three Sweet 16s at UCLA but never further and a long list of upset losses.
(3) Gonzaga vs (14) Grand Canyon
It’s telling how well Gonzaga has established itself that you’re surprised how “low” the Zags are seeded this year. Gonzaga is now 27–10 as a top-5 seed, twice making the Final Four but losing in the title game. They suffered 4/1, 9/4, and 9/1 upsets in that spot over the last decade.
Mark Few is 38–22 all time, right about at expectations. He’s been nearly invincible at 19–3 in the first round — a remarkable achievement for a school most people hadn’t heard of two decades ago — but he’s only 11–8 in the second round and just 8–11 after that. For all its success, Gonzaga has still made only six Elite 8s and those two Final Fours.
Remember, we haven’t had a national champion from a non-power conference since 1990, and no West Coast champ since 1997. Gonzaga has the nation’s #1 offense and returns Drew Timme yet again, and they were the preseason #2. The Zags are always a threat, and you have to believe they’ll finish the job one of these years.
They’ll face a fun Grand Canyon squad led by March Madness legend Bryce Drew. The Lopes lost in their only appearance in 2021 but should bring a very fun fan section to nearby Denver. The WAC had lost 14 straight tourney games before New Mexico State sprung a 12/5 upset last year, but they had five other losses by five or less over the past decade. The conference’s last previous win by an 11-seed or lower was back in 2003.
(7) Northwestern vs (10) Boise State
Northwestern made only one previous tourney in 2017, winning once before losing to 1-seed Gonzaga by six. The Wildcats’ 21 wins is already second most in school history, and this is only the third time since World War II they’ve finished above 4th in the Big 10. This school is known far more for academics and sports journalism, featuring such luminaries as Mike Wilbon, J.A. Adande, Rachel Nichols, Rich Eisen, Mike Greenberg, Cassidy Hubbarth, Juliet Litman, Rick Teleander, and the late Craig Sager, among others. And Ira Glass!
Northwestern’s one win is one more than Boise State. The Broncos lost last year in their first proper appearance since 2008, and they’re 0–5 now not counting play-ins. They’re our fourth and final MWC team so scroll on back for all the doom news for yet another double-digit MWC squad.
(2) UCLA vs (15) UNC-Asheville
We made it to our final matchup of the bracket, and we saved the one still great blue blood for last. UCLA has a record 11 national championships, though only one of those (1995) came since John Wooden’s absurd stretch of 10 titles between 1964–75. The Bruins have 19 Final Four berths, 13 in a 15 year stretch from 1962–76 and five in the modern era.
Similar to other top blue bloods like Duke and North Carolina, seeding is everything for UCLA. As a 3-to-5 seed, the Bruins are only 8–9 in the modern era without ever getting past the Sweet 16. But when they grab a top-2 seed, UCLA is 25–5 with one title run, averaging 4.2 wins per appearance. That means an average of at least a Final Four berth!
Mick Cronin has quickly established himself as a great at UCLA. His 11-seed play-in winner made the Final Four with wins against 1, 2, and 6 seeds, then darn near took down unbeaten #1 overall Gonzaga there too. Last year, Cronin’s 4-seed made the Sweet 16 again, and this year’s squad still returns Jaime Jaquez from those two runs, though it’s missing top defenders Jaylen Clark and Adam Bona to injury.
Remember, the PAC-12 has not won a title since 1997, and they haven’t even been to the championship game since UCLA made it in 2006. No West Coast team has a title this century either, with four losses in the final game, and UCLA is still looking for its first title since 1995. This team has the goods and the pedigree to make a run if they can find enough health.
UNC-Asheville went 16–2 in conference play but is 0–4 in the tourney with three of the four losses by at least 21 points. The Big South is 1–27 all time, the lone win by Winthrop as their highest seed ever (11) and their last seven tourney proper losses by double digits.
WEST REGION ANALYSIS
The West is loaded with four bona fide blue bloods comprising the top four seeds. Teams like Arkansas or VCU might be fun long shots in another quadrant, but you’ll want to ride one of the top four out West.
Kansas is the 1-seed but might actually be the least likely of the four. History says defending champs don’t get past the Sweet 16 and that Kansas will probably fail in the Elite 8 even if they do get there.
Gonzaga and UConn have the talent to make the Final Four and win the whole thing. They’re perfectly defensible picks here. But they’re also stuck in the same bracket as UCLA, the one high-seed historical blue blood in this weird season of random “wait WHO is a 1-seed?!” that looks reliable.
Honestly, you could’ve suggested a Final Four of Kansas, UCLA, Gonzaga, and UConn before the bracket came out and not one person would’ve batted an eye. Totally believable! Instead, they’re all in one battle royale quadrant for one Final Four spot. Good luck!
HISTORY’S FINAL FOUR PICKS
South
Baylor, Arizona, or Alabama
East
Duke or Kentucky or Michigan State
Midwest
Houston or Xavier
West
UCLA! Or maybe UConn or Gonzaga!
CHAMPIONSHIP PICK
Just go with a team wearing blue. History is on our side. ■
Give your Final Four picks in the comments below! Who ya got?? Feel free to ask any questions below, too.
Brandon is a full-time NBA and NFL staff writer at The Action Network. You can also follow him on Medium or @wheatonbrando for more sports, television, humor, and culture. Visit the rest of Brandon’s writing archives here.
Shouts to my usual March Madness readers Jody, Curt, Brianne, Josh, Luke, Jim, Todd, Matthew, David, Gutbloom, Ianic, Lon, , Rebekah, Rob, Becky, Jonny, Jonathan, Tim, Mark, Ethan, Fleet, Rajan, Ivan, Aellé, and others!
