Tahiti super 8

The super 8 for the Fantasy Surfer from Surfer Magazine

Published in

Surf Metrics

5 min readAug 10, 2017

We've reached the seventh event of the season. Our algorithms for predicting Fantasy Surfer results are still being tuned, meanwhile you can always check how they perform here. There are only two versions: Momentum (v1.5.1) and Performance (v1.7).

We will present you the super 8 looking for Performance variables (v1.7). The Momentum picks are generally better, we only made this change because the official calculation (Momentum) has practically the same team as J-Bay (The only difference is Mick Fanning, it changed to Medina).

The last time we decided to choose Performance was in Fiji (luckily the worst prediction of our algorithms on the season). However we're in the hope to perform better than Momentum now.

This season we're collecting price information about surfers. For 2018 we plan to launch our full calculation for Fantasy Surfer. At the moment we are predicting as if the salary cap didn't exist. Enough talking, let's dive deep into surfers analysis.

1- John John Florence — $11,000,000

Event Average Score: 16.15
Event Winning Percentage: 68%
FS average points: 138

JJF leads our Stat Rank with 76% Heat Winning Percentage (HWP) and 16.54 Average Heat Score (AHS) on this season. Talking about Tahiti, the surfer has incredible stats at the venue. The best Event Average Heat Score and the 4º best winning percentage (we're taking Kelly out of the game, he leads in all categories). Although not in first position of WSL Rank, the surfer leads in all season stats.

Gabriel Medina — $10,000,000

Event Average Score: 15.65
Event Winning Percentage: 76%
FS average points: 156

For three consecutive years Medina has made more than 150 points on FS. He has reached: 1º on 2014, 2º on 2015 and 3º on 2016. Since 2014 Teahupo'o is the event responsible to put Medina on the title race. If he wins, we'll see seven different surfers winning the first seven events of the season. This scenario would make this season unforgettable.

The surfer also has the best winning percentage and 4º best EAHS and the best average FS points.

Owen Wright — $9,000,000

Event Average Score: 15.73
Event Winning Percentage: 68.75%
FS average points: 142

Owen does not lead in any variable, however he is in second spot in all of them. The last three results of the surfer are a semi on 2015 and two quarters on 2014 and 2012. Owen's career is in a growing trend, performing better at Teahupo'o will mean a possible event win. Since 2012 Owen has never been below 125 points on Fantasy Surfer.

We have made everything possible to have the first three surfers of super 8 amongst our picks. They are all possible winners.

Mick Fanning — $5,750,000

Event Average Score: 14.17
Event Winning Percentage: 66.67%
FS average points: 138

Although Fanning still has top level stats at Teahupo'o, most of his records were built back on 2012 and 2013. For sure the surfer has a great tube riding technic, but he is in a descending pattern on the venue. The season of 2017 also constitutes the worst winning percentage of the surfer since 2012. Has the Momentum algorithm made a smart move picking Medina over Mick? Numbers support this fact.

Joel Parkinson — $8,750,000

Event Average Score: 14.94
Event Winning Percentage: 55%
FS average points: 109

The last good result of Joel at Tahiti was on 2012, when he lost the final against Mick. During the last four years, the best results were rd5.

This season Joel is nearer the yellow jersey, compared to other years. However, the numbers of the surfer this year do not show a growing pattern. He is still far from those records of 2012. Prior to 2014 Joel could handle to achieve a HWP higher than 60%. On 2017 he is still with 51.85%.

Jeremy Flores — $4,750,000

Event Average Score: 15.63
Event Winning Percentage: 60%
FS average points: 141

Flores has a great winning percentage at Tahiti. Since 2012, his worst result on the event was last year, loosing on round 3. Taking that worst result out, the surfer would achieve a 160 avg FS points (very close from Kelly's 162 mark).

The surfer has delivered best scores this year, his AHS has improved. And he has already show how comfortably he feels in the waves of Tahiti. For that price we would always pick him for the event.

Adrian Buchan — $4,250,000

Event Average Score: 15.14
Event Winning Percentage: 65.22%
FS average points: 138

Buchan has reached the semis last year at Tahiti. He also won the event back on 2013. In the season of 2017 the surfer is not very different from past years, just a tinny difference below his records. He normally finishes the year with a HWP between 40% and 50%. We believe that Tahiti is going to bring him back to that mark, at the moment he is around 32%.

Italo Ferreira — $4,750,000

Event Average Score: 13.46
Event Winning Percentage: 57.14%
FS average points: 105

Italo has only two events on the venue, very few in comparison to the other surfers presented. He has made a great event back on 2015 as a rookie, reaching a quarter final result. This year he will bring back that energy of his rookie season.

Super 8 total cost: $58,250,00

The Tahiti super 8 have the best average FS points sum: 1067 points. It's also the lowest price of the super 8 so far. We could even assemble a team with almost all super 8 surfers (picking Nat over Joel)