Susan Collins’s Best Days Are Behind Her
The State of the State
Maine stands as an outlier in New England, both politically creative and complex. Along with Nebraska, Maine is the only state to have proportional voting. Maine has also adopted ranked-choice voting for 2020. In 2016, Maine split its electoral votes with the more rural and French northern district going Republican for the first time since 1988. The 2nd district is the second most rural district in the United States, which speaks to the growing political realignment along class lines in the United States. However, since the election, the state has soured on the President. His approval at -13 is lower than in Nevada.
The 2018 election signaled a regression toward the mean in Maine politics. Senator Angus King, an Independent who Caucuses with Democrats, won handily and Democrats managed to win the 2nd district House seat as a result of ranked-choice voting. Concurrently, Democrat Janet Mills won her Gubernatorial race by a 7 point margin.
The Numbers
Given Collins’s unusual position as a multi-decade Republican Senator in a +4 Democrat-leaning state, there has been extensive polling and speculation on this race. In June, a head-to-head against potential competitors had Collins winning by a commanding 14 points while Trump was underwater. At the same time, a fund Collins has refered to as blackmail has raised over $4M on her Kavanaugh vote. One of her potential Democratic competitors, Maine state House Speaker Sara Gideon, has raised $3M against her. Collins approval has also taken its fair share of hits. In 2017 her approval was at an extraordinary 67%, but by the first quarter of 2019, it had sunk to 52. She now sits at a negative 43–49 approval.
Don’t Trust Polls?
Susan Collins has been an institution in Maine, serving in the Senate since 1996. She has also tried to hold the middle as a true centrist, but in the highly partisan modern era, that has been increasingly impossible. Collins was an important vote in preserving the ACA. At almost the same time, she voted for the Conservative Tax Cuts and Jobs Act as well as Kavanaugh’s confirmation. She has also been extremely quiet on the potential impeachment hearing but this will likely be a cleavage point for her where she is unable to satisfy both her base and her state.
The unusual position of New Hampshire politics is taken to an even greater extreme in Maine. As with other more rural states, Maine has fairly relaxed gun laws. Aside from the aforementioned density of the state, Maine also has the distinction as being the oldest state by average age, and at 96% white, Maine is the least diverse state in the nation. While this demographic mix should make the state ruby red, other trends place it in the lean-Democrat category. The state is the least religious, has one of the most liberal healthcare systems in the nation and one of the oldest and most stringent abortion protection laws in the country. Further, gay marriage has been legal since 2012, tax laws are more aggressive than neighboring states and Maine has one of the most comprehensive welfare systems in the nation. This level of policy nuance is necessary in understanding why Susan Collins’s move toward the right has been so dangerous for her.
Conclusion
Susan Collins is a well known and historically well liked Senator in her home state. Historically, she has managed to remain out of the limelight and maintained her position as a moderate Conservative who can represent her otherwise light-blue state. However, in the modern era of TV politics, it has become impossible to tread lightly in Congress. A series of recent events have moored her to a president who is not popular in Maine and to policies that are diametrically opposed to her state’s values. Unless Collins’s numbers rebound, a generic Democrat will likely defeat her as she will be receiving no help on the top of the ticket.
Worse for Collins, Senate Majority Leader McConnell has agreed to hold an impeachment trial for President Trump. It is very likely this will be a redux of the quagmire she found herself in during the Kavanaugh hearing. Susan Collins’s tarnished reputation as a moderate seems unlikely to improve, and while there is yet to be a strong Democratic nominee, he or she will be entering with an impressive war-chest. But because of Collins’s amazing track-record of political survival, enduring historical popularity and strength in the one head-to-head poll, this race is only Lean Democrat.
