The Emerging Myth of Elizabeth Warren
Context Around the Candidate
Elizabeth Warren’s perceived credentials come largely from her time before Congress. Warren’s arcing path toward Progressive Massachusetts Senator has two starkly different chapters. Warren grew up in Oklahoma on what she describes as the edge of the Middle Class. Warren studied Speech Pathology and taught before enrolling in law school at Rutgers and becoming a successful corporate lawyer. Warren was also a staunch Conservative. In her 2003 book The Two-Income Trap, Warren took a number of stances at odds with her current views. The financial risks of mothers working and fallacies of overconsumption are two prominent examples of Conservative talking points the book espouses. Warren’s convictions ultimately came crashing down with the 2008 economy.
In the midst of the financial crisis, Elizabeth Warren began her forays into public policy. When TARP was created in 2008, Harvard Professor Elizabeth Warren was one of the five members overseeing the $700 billion fund. This organization was pivotal in assessing the government financial bailout. Warren was also pivotal in the creation of the CFPB and acted as the first head of the organization. The CFPB has existed as the primary bulwark against predatory lending. Under the Trump administration, the CFPB has been defanged but its legacy lives on in Warren’s policy proposals.
After her work at the CFPB, Warren made her first foray into official politics. In 2012, Warren beat incumbent Scott Brown by almost 7 points. Somewhat similar to Doug Jones in Alabama in 2018, Brown won in 2010 because his opponent, despite the favorable state environment, managed to estrange Massachusetts Democrats and Liberal-leaning Independents. The 2010 special election was for Ted Kennedy’s seat which he had won in 2006 by nearly 40 points. Such healthy margins for Democrats are usually the norm in Massachusetts. In 2018 when Warren was reelected, she received 60.3% of the vote; but despite her reelection numbers, Elizabeth Warren is the 6th most unpopular Senator at 49–41 approval.
Why They’ve Risen In the Polls
Given Warren’s Progressive track-record, policy-oriented style and Conservative past, she felt she had a unique offering and was one of the first to enter the 2020 race. Warren beat an initial controversy around her Native American heritage but long received middling numbers. That was until June of 2019 when her primary poll numbers began to climb from 7.8% then to a high-water mark of 28% in October of 2019. Despite her credentials as the only other Progressive besides Bernie Sanders, Warren has not leeched his support. She also hasn’t taken much of frontrunner Joe Biden’s support either. Rather, the majority of her rise has been a consolidation in support from the other candidates’ former backers.
While Warren looks like an alternative to Bernie Sanders, her base doesn’t. Sanders’s base is primarily young and not wealthy, and Warren’s is more educated, wealthy and middle-aged. Warren’s base of support is also only slightly over a third Liberal. A lot was made over Clinton’s inability to excite voters in terms of who she was and her policies. In 2020, mainstream Democrats hope to correct this error. They want a candidate with more grand Liberal policy who is still electable. Even more powerful than her polling, Warren managed to net nearly $25 million in third-quarter donations without accepting big donors.
Numerous media outlets have also begun treating Warren as the ideal nominee as well. From SNL’s treatment of her to the near daily opinion pieces in many news publications, Warren is being presaged as the next savior of the Democratic Party. The great problem for Elizabeth Warren is that she is not a more electable Progressive. She is Progressive, but she does even or worse than Sanders on almost every mark that mainstream Democrats care about.
Looking Beyond Primary Polls
The four major stress-tests for a candidate can fairly be summarized as fundraising, policies, primary polling and general election polling. Warren is really only impressive compared to Sanders on primary polling. While he has sat around 15%, Warren has managed to climb in primary polls. However, she has raised slightly less money than him and from far fewer sources. Against the other frontrunner Joe Biden, Warren has raised quite a bit more money. On policy, both Warren and Sanders support marque Progressive policies like Medicare for All and greater taxation on the wealthy. Here, Joe Biden is more in-line with the average American as a moderate on the issues. On the final point, general election polling, Warren falls behind both Biden and Sanders.
There are very few polls that back up the popular narrative that Warren is the more electable Sanders or the Progressive-lite candidate. Looking at the last month so as not to cherry-pick polls, Warren is routinely the weakest of the top three candidates. Starting with an Emerson poll from October 6th, Warren does worse in Ohio than Sanders or Biden against Trump. The same can be said of a Fox poll in Wisconsin around the same date. This trend continues across all of her polls, ranging from beating Sanders by a few points to losing to him by up to 4 points. Most recently, a Sienna poll ominous for Democrats shows her underperforming Sanders in all but one swing state. October was also Warren’s best month in general election polling. When her name recognition was lower, she polled marginally worse.
Conclusion
In 2016, Bernie Sanders didn’t just shift the Overton window for Democrats, he also built a broad coalition out of new voters and eventual Trump voters. At the same time, his support for Progressive policy and especially Medicare For All is at odds with most Americans. This is critical when healthcare is the biggest reason independents swing left.
If electability is the biggest factor for choosing a nominee, Biden is still the best choice. Despite poor fundraising, Biden has appeal as a Moderate and as someone who has built a brand working across the political aisle. In swing states a top pollster found Biden alone beating Trump. He is not without his pitfalls. Full of public gaffes and an inability to inspire, he could easily be a 2016 redux for Democrats.
Voters absolutely take complicated equations into account when choosing their candidate. However, if a single issue like electability is the most important factor for Democrats in choosing their nominee, then Warren, as things currently stand, should not be their choice. Warren is not a compromise between Biden and Sanders or even a more palatable Sanders. She is an unpopular Progressive Senator who has made inroads within her party without making any outside.
