How Portugal Will Win Euro 2016
Though they have Cristiano Ronaldo, it’s the stout defense that has led them to success
Every citizen of Portugal should be sending gift baskets of Port wine and enchidos to Iceland.
After finding themselves behind Hungary not once, not twice, but three times, it seemed hopeless that Portugal would advance to the knockout phase of Euro 2016. But the soccer gods must’ve been listening to the multiple prayers said in Portuguese an hour into that third match of the group stage, because not only did Cristiano Ronaldo score yet another equalizer, but then Arnor Ingvi Traustason scored a seemingly counterintuitive match-winning goal three minutes into stoppage time for Iceland against Austria. (Naturally, I say “seemingly”, as soccer pundits couldn’t believe England’s fortune to play Iceland in the Round of 16… that is, until it was Iceland who put away the Three Lions in the biggest pillaging effort in France since the vikings sacked Paris. But I digress.)
Fate was on the side of A Seleção, as they drew arguably the easier side of the Euro 2016 bracket, despite playing dark horse darlings Croatia first thing in the knockout round. Their opponents might have been in awe of Cristiano Ronaldo’s amazing tan, but Portugal never seemed to be in danger, like when Croatia outshot Portugal 17–6, but neither team had a shot on target in regulation. Adding to that the biggest rival in the world got busted for tax fraud, it’s as if the stars are aligning for 2016 to be the year of CR7, which is exactly why Portugal is going to win Euro 2016 (maybe).
The most frequent statement made about Fernando Santos’ Portugal squad is how tactically smart they have played. That is immediately followed in frequency with how boring it is to watch them play. Perhaps a side fielding Cristiano Ronaldo is expected to light up the scoreboard rather than having only won their first match of the tournament in regulation in the semifinal match against Wales. However, that is not the backbone of this team. Instead, it has come at the capabilities of their defense.
Initially, Santos started with a back four involving Vieirinha, Pepe, Ricardo Carvalho, and Raphael Guerreiro. While Carvalho hasn’t been entirely abysmal, he and Vieirinha were the distinguishable weak links in this defensive front. They were replaced by Cédric Soares and Jose Fonte, and while Soares hasn’t been flawless, it’s been a noticeable improvement.
A frequent issue that arose would be when players like André Gomes or João Mário would push forward in attack, leaving pockets of space behind them for opponents to exploit on a counter attack. More often than not, this left Vieirinha to handle the attacker on his own as a last line of defense. If he got beat and Pepe couldn’t recover to make up for the defensive shortcomings, a threatening scoring opportunity would arise.
To make up for this, Santos did two things: limit Portugal from pressing in the opponent’s territory and keeping a deep line. This kept defensive lines tight, limiting the space in which the opposition had to attack, and made the task of tracking the movement of the players they’re marking easier. Perhaps this was done out of panic, but it’s been effective: of the teams that advanced to the knockout phase of the tournament, Portugal maintained an Expected Goals Allowed per Shot rate of 0.079 — one of the lowest shot quality rates in Euro 2016 — and allowed 9.5 shots per game, which is tied for the fifth-fewest.
The game plan will be straightforward against France: lure them into their half of the pitch, get men behind the ball, and close off space in which France will attempt to move. Pepe and Jose Fonte should be able to limit a lot of the play from Giroud, who will plant himself at the top of the penalty area, while Danilo and Adrien Silva will control the top of the box to hinder movement by Dimitri Payet, Antoine Griezmann, and Paul Pogba. If they can keep their lines narrow as they did against Poland and Croatia, limiting their opponents to taking low-quality attempts from outside the penalty area, they will be in business.
There was also an additional influence to the stout defending that came from the midfield. Initially, Fernando Santos lined up his men in a Flat 4–4–2, with the idea of pressing from the wings and playing wide. However, this formation resulted in the loss of control of the midfield, and opponents would run right through William Carvalho and João Moutinho and into the final third. Not only that, but with Mário and André Gomes pushing forward so frequently on attack, there was hardly any pressing of the opponents’ wingers.
Santos switched to a 4–4–2 Diamond, keeping Danilo Pereira in front of the back line in the CDM role. With the inclusion of the dynamic Renato Sanches, Adrien Silva began drifting back, as witnessed in the recent match against Wales, adding another wrinkle to their defending formation. This reduced the strain on the back line, preventing them from being exposed to counter attacks, and created a difficult layer for opponents to penetrate. Griezmann had more success playing as the #10 role against Germany, though he has been effective from the wings, as well, so France will likely rely on Sagna and Payet generating chances from out wide, meaning Cédric Soares and Eliseu or Guerreiro will need to function at their most effective on their islands out on the wings.
All this comes at the expense of not having a striker, and with the numerous complaints on social media about the lack of goals and superior striker play in this tournament, one would expect a defense-oriented side to lack the attacking firepower to make a deep run in a major competition. Oh, you must not know soccer, my friend.
Sure, nearly half of Portugal’s goals came in the 3–3 draw against Hungary, and sure, they needed a goal in the dying embers of stoppage time to defeat Croatia, but it’s not for a lack of trying, and surprisingly enough, A Seleção have a formidable attack. There are haves and have-nots in Euro 2016, and Portugal are lucky to count themselves in the former category, with Expected Goals per Shot being 0.097, good for eighth-best. But it’s not achieved in the manner one would expect, which is likely “give the ball to Cristiano Ronaldo and let the magic happen.”
With no true striker spearheading the attack, Fernando Santos has been relying on a tandem of Cristiano Ronaldo and Nani. In fact, it was Ricardo Quaresma getting the starts in the beginning. Eventually, Nani’s skill set proved to be better suited for their offense. Ronaldo generally sits forward and to his preferred left side, cutting inward and to the right while creating both space for himself and scoring opportunities. However, in instances like the Nani goal against Wales or Renato Sanches’ goal against Poland, it was his ability to draw defenders away from his teammates that created space and better scoring opportunities. Nani does this, too, playing from a wider position as his history of being a winger encourages him to do instinctually, but with Renato Sanches in the mix, as well as the other midfielders, Portugal is able to make runs in front of their opponent’s defensive line and cause confusion.
This does have its drawbacks, however. Too often, Portugal is willing to sit back and will their opponents into their half of the pitch. Unless they’re ahead, they rely more on counter attacking, which France does, as well. It wasn’t until they got behind on goals in the Hungary and Poland matches where their offense attacked with more vigor and urgency. If France get to an early lead, Portugal will have a fire lit under them, but they’ve shown that even in that situation, there isn’t enough individual creativity to threaten unless their opponent makes a defensive error. If a mistake is made, Portugal have been fairly potent on attack to capitalize.
France is a young, fast, talented unit that has done well in capitalizing on and finishing the chances given to them. Les Bleus’ defense is prone to lapses in concentration and mistakes as well, especially later in matches. If Portugal can keep the match close after the first half and then get off to a quick start like they did against Wales, the outcome will look very strong for the prematch underdogs. While only one half of the finals competitors was expected before the tournament began, and though pundits have continually vented their frustrations about how clinical and safe this team has performed so far, Portugal are in a reasonably good position to win. After all, with one of the brightest stars in the world on their roster, it’s only fitting everything else aligns for them to win it all.
Patrick Onofre is co-creator of The Challengers Podcast, a soccer website and podcast that discusses the Premier League, the Bundesliga, and La Liga. Listen to the podcast on iTunes, like them on Facebook, and follow them on twitter — @ChallengersPod.
