2018 NBA Big Board: Lead Guards

Part 2: One Guard to Lead Them All

Photo Credit: Charles Jischke — Purdue Athletics

Part two of my big board series will feature the much more fun younger brother of the Off-Ball Guard, also known as the Top 10 Lead Guards for the 2018 draft.

The current class of “lead” guards was the toughest to rank in my opinion, and much like the previous post, a lot has changed since I started this journey. Some like Shamet fell and fell fast, while others like Carsen Edwards ascended like an elegant, beautiful phoenix into the top half. If you asked me three weeks ago if I expected Carsen Edwards to jump almost six spots, I would probably have called you crazy. But like always, crazier things have happened.

Disclaimer: As always, this is just a college driven Big Board as I don’t dive into tape of international or HS prospects until the college season is over BUT if I was a GM, I would draft Anfernee Simmons and Elie Okobo above the guys starting at 7 on raw upside and international intrigue alone.

1. Trae Young, Oklahoma
   Watchability Rating: 10 out of 10
   Draft Range: Top 8(ish)
   Player Comp: Super Saiyan Patty Mills
   Hot Take Central: Trae was the most exciting basketball player to step on a college campus since Kevin Durant was a 6’10 teenager averaging 20 points, 11 boards, and shooting 40% from three. Trae will be tossed in the same conversation as Steph, Kyrie, or even Nash, but all you really need to know is that Trae is Trae, and he was a fucking cheat code in college. Anyone not praising what this kid did at Oklahoma can go hang out in 1975 and smoke old Lucky Strike* cigs while the rest of us attempt to grab our jaws from the ground. What I will say though, is that for everything amazing that Trae is doing in college, his NBA upside is extremely difficult to predict. Comparing Trae to league-breaking players like Steph or Nash is incredibly dangerous, as they are two of the most influential talents in the last 10–15 years, and while these comparisons could play out, he could also turn into Ty Lawson 2.0. He is a definitely a swing-for-the-fences type of prospect and if he hits correctly, then you could be looking at a potential MVP candidate that can change the overall landscape of your franchise, but the red flags looming in the shadows are quite large. For me personally, his red flags are not the fact that he chucked up 30 foot jumpers with 20 seconds to go on the shot clock or that he was a TO heavy machine. I see those as him attempting to do too much based on the talent around him. Instead, when looking at Trae, I think his lack of length will be a MASSIVE issue for him, especially since he isn’t the craftiest of finishers around the rim. He makes cool looking layups, but the ability to absorb contact and not be thrown 30 feet into the stands is a talent that not many have. Someone like Steph has that ability and even Nash to a ceratin degre. When Steph attacks, you probably won’t block his shot as he can use his body control to create separation and alter his own shot. This is something I don’t think Trae can do against guys like Rudy or Clint. I worry that he will get his shot blocked far too often in the NBA. Also, if you are going to ask, “where is the part about his defense,” then you are boring. Of course Trae is going to struggle in the NBA on defense. That is too obvious for me to discuss here. If Trae was a junior, I would be less open to taking the risk with a top five pick, but at 19 and as probably someone who still thinks SoCo Lime is a good drink, Trae is 100% worth it.
2. Collin Sexton, Roll Tide
   Watchability Rating: 8.5 out of 10
   Draft Range: Late Lottery
   Player Comp: Kemba Walker
   Hot Take Central: Collin Sexton’s nickname is the “Young Bull” and I don’t think I’ve seen a nickname fit so well to a player’s type of play in the history of sports. He is a 6’2 reckoning ball of a human, who will destroy anything in site if it means he can get two points. Sexton is a weird prospect when it comes to modern day NBA point guards. He isn’t overly athletic like Westbrook, doesn’t have a jet strapped to his back like John Wall, doesn’t freeze defenders with quick handles like Kyrie, or hit shots from a continent away like Curry, but his motor and competitive spirit are just as rare as the skills/natural talents I just listed. When it comes to actual basketball skill, he is above-average in almost everything from shooting to defending, but when paired with his elite motor, that is when you get the highly regarded prospect everyone raves about. If you somehow combined the controlled chaos of Patrick Beverley with the upside scoring aptitude of Kemba Walker, then you would get a pretty close clone of Collin Sexton. My main issue I have with Sexton’s play on the court is how he forces his teams to adapt to him, rather the other way around. Yes, I understand lead guards usually dictate how a team is run, but due to Sexton’s size limitations and his reliability on getting to the rim and getting fouled, it is tough to imagine an NBA team building around him. If he was a more willing passer or becomes a more versatile scorer, then I can see a greater chance of success for him. Outside of him dictating an offense, his average length leaves me skeptical of his upside as a defender. He loves to hound the opposing team’s best ball-handler, but that doesn’t make him an elite defender. Outside of those two major areas, the rest of Sexton’s success will rely on his ability to finish through contact (something that must happen), his weird athleticism being able to translate, and his ability to create enough separation from defenders with his average handles. Similar to Kemba**, it might take some time getting used to the NBA game, but he could find success as a top 20 lead guard in the NBA.
3. Shai Gilgeous Alexander, Kentucky
   Watchability Rating: 7.8 out of 10
   Draft Range: Top 20
   Player Comp: Delon Wright
   Hot Take Central: Coming into the season I was very high on Shai, solely for his great name and pretty impressive hair, but after the first 10 or so games I started to sour on him. He wasn’t aggressive and his length didn’t show all too much when watching him; however, over the last few months he has completely flipped the switch again.When looking at his NBA role, it is safe to assume that Shai has everything you want in an ideal 3-and-D guard. He has the length to guard multiple positions, and even though the size is small, he looks the part of a dangerous long range shooter at 40% on 57 attempts. His handles are nothing to write home about, but he can create enough separation to get to the rim and finish at a decent clip. Can he do that against NBA level athletes is a different question. Even though he acts as the primary ball handler at Kentucky, when gauging his upside in the NBA, it feels like he should be slotted as a secondary handler playing alongside someone like Lonzo Ball or Ben Simmons. If he does end up as the defacto lead guard, he will struggle to get into the lane until he can get some muscle on his frame. For Shai to really take off, his dedication to the weight room will be huge. His legs are fucking skinny as hell. When projecting his upside, due to his frame and length, I see SGA as a Delon Wright-type player. It might take him some time to get used to the speed of the NBA, but we could be looking at the next top flight NBA ball hawk. DEFLECTIONS!
4. Carsen Edwards, Purdue
   Watchability Rating: 8.5 out of 10
   Draft Range: Mid to Late first
   Player Comp: Kyle Lowry
   Hot Take Central: Collin Sexton might be the media’s favorite competitor and “King of Intensity,” but for me, it has to be Carsen Edwards. Toward the end of this season, I realized that Edwards is an unstoppable force that I want on my team regardless of his red flags. His biggest flaw as a prospect, and one that is rather large as of now, is that he isn’t a natural or even makeshift playmaker. Similar to Russell Westbrook’s sophomore season, Carsen Edwards spent the majority of his time off-ball but did show enough skill to peak my interest. Along with his playmaking, I was originally scared off by his height but after seeing his wingspan was measured at 6’5 and even though that isn’t great, I started to feel a lot better about his upside. If you are wondering why I have a guard here who is relatively short, average length, and lacks the play making needed to thrive as a lead guard at four, then let me introduce you to a three level scorer whose shot making ability is as impressive as any guard not named Trae Young in this class. When you watch Carsen, his thick ass frame and how he uses it are the first things that stand out. Even though he isn’t an athletic marvel, Carsen still possesses a quick burst with a low center of gravity that allows him to easily turn the corner on a lot of defenders and finish at the rim. To go along with his deceptively quick burst, he has underrated handles and when comparing him to the other guards like Shai or Sexton, I would rank him above both. Even though he can get past his defender in college, Edwards go-to skill in the NBA will be his shooting. He can stroke it from anywhere on the court. It doesn’t matter if it is a pull-up jumper or a catch and shoot situation, Edwards will get a good shot off. For as gifted as Carsen is when attacking, his success in the NBA is 100% reliant on his ability to turn into a playmaker (the main reason I ranked him 4th). If he can turn into a viable distributor, his value is through the roof, but if things stay the same then we could be looking at the next Ben Gordon-like guard***.
5. Shamorie Ponds, St. Johns
   Watchability Rating: 8.3 out of 10
   Draft Range: Mid to Late first
   Player Comp: Is He the 6’1 Isaiah Thomas?
   Hot Take Central: Do you love instant energy off the bench and microwave scorers who can cook? Oh you do? Good. Let me introduce to you Shamorie Ponds. This guy cooks and cooks well. When gauging the type of player Ponds can turn into, the first thing that stands out is a volume bench scorer in the mold of Lou Williams. What sets him apart from other high-scoring guards is his quick little hands that allow him to generate steals and irritate the hell out of guards. He doesn’t have the length or upside of a Trevon Duval, and doesn’t have the natural beast-like mentality of Jevon Carter, but Ponds is a skilled on-ball defender who should continue his success in the NBA. Earlier this year, I talked about Ponds needing to improve his playmaking skills to solidify himself as a potential first rounder, and with the departure of LoVett, I think he has shown that he can be a true distributor. In addition to these improvements, he has also made strides when it comes to finishing at the rim. However, I do still worry about him holding up against NBA competition. Ponds has a similar approach to scoring as Sexton, but with the frame of Trae Young. A sleight frame can work for Trae since he looks to finish around contact, but Ponds instead seeks it out. His style of play is reminiscent of IT, even down to their dribbling. Both use the same in-and-out move to get separation, then explode past their defender. A team like the Clippers who has two first rounders would be an ideal landing spot for Ponds, where veterans like Beverly and Milos can help in trimming the fat out of his game.
6. Landry Shamet, Wichita State
   Watchability Rating: 6 out of 10
   Draft Range: Late First
   Player Comp: Seth Curry
   Hot Take Central: I had high expectations that Shamet could jump Sexton with an impressive March, but WSU lost to Marshall and similar to Tyus Battle (mentioned in my previous post), sometimes a single bad game can really open your eyes. I consider Shamet to be a lead guard, but truthfully, he is going to be a lesser version of whatever you classify Jamal Murray to be. When looking at the other lead guards above Shamet, the first thing that stands out is how much quicker they are when comparing them to Shamet. The lack of lateral quickness and explosiveness are Shamet’s big red flags, which is why I think he is best suited as a backup PG in the mold of Seth Curry or Corey Joseph. When it comes to guys like Russell Westbrook or Kyrie Irving, I just don’t see Shamet being able to guard them. Even though he lacks elite speed or athleticism, that doesn’t stop Shamet from getting to the hole and finishing around the rim, an area I think he is better at than both Young and Sexton. It definitely helps that Shamet is 6’4 with decent length, but it is his balance and body control that allow him to finish at such a high rate (65%). Another low-key strength is his ability to get open in the half-court. He has great instincts that lead to some pretty nifty backdoor cuts for some open layups. The biggest reasons for Landry’s rise into late lottery/mid-first, however, are his ability to play off-ball and his shooting. Alongside Trae, he is up there as the best shooter out of legit prospects in this draft. He has a clean motion that he can get off really quick from anywhere on the court. His jumper from distance will pay the bills, but he creates a lot of efficient jumpers for himself out of the PnR which could be a go-to move for him at the next level.
7. Trevon Duval, Duke
   Watchability Rating: 7.1 out of 10
   Draft Range: Late First
   Player Comp: Dennis Schröder
   Hot Take Central: The allure of Duval for me is one that most people wouldn’t buy into anymore, but his combination of athleticism and length makes me a continued believer. Yes, it might be smart to get the elephant out of the room early and admit that Duval has some Rondo-like qualities in that he can’t shoot at all. If my life was on the line, and I had to choose between Duval hitting an NBA 3 or Guy Fieri shaving his head, I would probably lean toward Fieri. Okay, that might be a little over the top, but Duval’s inability to space the floor in today’s modern NBA is scary and will 100% be the reason he falls. The shooting is worrisome, but Duval has some high-end skill that keep him locked into the first round. His athleticism is off the charts and is up there as one of the most explosive lead guards in the draft. It would have been awesome if Duval was the only talented player on Duke because it was a joy watching him put pressure on the D by using his speed to break a double-team and attack the rim. With his explosiveness, Duval is also a gifted playmaker that throws every pass as if he is Brett Favre. Even though Duval doesn’t turn the ball over too much, he does have a penchant for attempting the flashy pass that can get him into trouble and that needs to be honed in if he wants to be a starter in the NBA. Alongside his elite athleticism and underrated playmaking, Duval has some of the best tools when it comes to defensive upside among guards. He plays aggressive defense and with a reported 6’8 wingspan, Duval can make it hell on earth for opposing guards. The athleticism, defense, and slashing ability are great, but Duval’s outlook is reliant on his ability to hit open jumpers. If he doesn’t, then his career will go down the same route as the lead guard version of Andre Roberson.
8. Jalen Brunson, Villanova
   Watchability Rating: 7.2 out of 10
   Draft Range: Late first/early second
   Player Comp: TJ McConnell
   Hot Take Central: Gritty, underappreciated, and very overlooked are the best ways to describe Brunson when it comes to NBA upside. Yes, I understand that the opening sentence is overused and a giant cliche when describing older prospects, but tell me that it isn’t true when it comes to Brunson. At 6’3, Brunson has good size for the NBA and even though he lacks the high octane athleticism that so many people love their lead guards to have nowadays, he still finds ways to get to the rim and score at a ridiculous rate. Brunson is scoring on over 70% of his attempts at the rim, which is flat out insane for a guard, and something that will help his first round status come June. Will he be doing that in the NBA? Probably not, but it is a good foundation to have when looking for a guard in the end of the first or early second. Even if he can’t get to the rim in the NBA, he has a good enough jumper to fall back on and a great post game that should allow him some upside as a starter on the right team. The two areas that Brunson will have the most impact on are pace of play and ball control. Brunson does a really good job at maintaining composure and forcing the opposing team to play to how his team wants to play. Drafting Brunson is a lot like drafting an offensive lineman — it sure isn’t sexy and you probably won’t be blogging about it afterwards, but it is a low-risk move that will eventually move the needle for your team.
9. Aaron Holiday, UCLA
   Watchability Rating: 6 out of 10
   Draft Range: Early second
   Player Comp: Frank Mason
   Hot Take Central: Like Brunson, Holiday falls into that cliche prospect description. The term “gamer” is thrown around a lot and is often overused, but it really does perfectly outline the type of player Holiday is. Like a lot of upperclass lead guards, Holiday might not be a guy to build around, but he is perfect for many teams off the bench. Holiday is a supremely confident floor general that is known for his scoring, and even though he isn’t the best decision maker and often gets stuck in traffic surrounded by opposing players, he is still a capable enough distributor that should make him an interesting pick in the early second. He will definitely need to dial back the scoring mentality just a tad bit if he wants to carve out a role, as he isn’t nearly the athlete or dynamic ball handler as the other scoring guards ahead of him. At 6’0 and maybe 175 pounds soaking wet, Holiday has a very similar frame to Ponds but lacks the explosiveness and creativity that allows Ponds to get to the rim. Even though Holiday is one of the quicker guards in the draft, his lack of bounce will cause him to stay more grounded in the NBA which means he will need to rely on his shooting prowess to get over. As a career 42% shooter from 3 on over 400 attempts, his shooting will definitely be a coveted asset for playoff teams come June. If you like defense, however, please look elsewhere in the draft.
10. Ky Bowman, Boston College
    Watchability Rating: 8 out of 10
    Draft Range: Second
    Player Comp: Eddie House on Steroids
    Hot Take Central: It is easy to see that I love highly offensive guards who look to step on the necks of anyone guarding them, and Bowman is that “seek and destroy” type guard but it is his upside as a defender that has me intrigued. At the moment, Bowman is an average to slightly above average on-ball defender with obvious holes on that end but the progress he has made from his freshman to sophomore year is promising. My main reasons for believing that he can progress into a dangerous 3-&-D type player outside of his shot-making ability in the NBA is his raw athleticism and the fact that he was a former top flight WR recruit who had originally agreed to play for the University of Alabama. Yes, the fact that someone was a talented WR who gave up a scholarship to play hoops at Chestnut Hill is a “data” point that I am very open with using to drive home my point. Only a madman who is obsessed with the game of basketball would do that. When it comes to athleticism, Bowman in my opinion grades out as the best athlete among “Lead Guards” this year. He is insanely fast in a pure sprint, has great feet and can jump pretty god damn high. When you pair the raw athleticism with his frame, that is when the hype for me jumps out. At 6’1 and 190, Bowman has the perfect frame to hold up against the stiff competition in the league at the guard spot and even battle with bigs on the low-block. Due to his competitive spirit that is 100% rooted in his football background, Bowman has developed into a dangerous rebounder from the guard spot and is easily the best rebounding “Lead Guard” in the draft. On offense, Bowman’s high usage rate will probably be cut in half as he needs to be paired with a larger primary ball-handler to reach peak success. His main flaws on O is that he takes a lot of bad shots, which effects is efficiency and is a TO machine. Two areas that should improve when given less of a workload. Even with his bad habits on O, Bowman still can score with the best of them in college hoops and can very much stretch it out to NBA range on his shot. This is definitely a case of pure enjoyment bias, but I do believe that grabbing a freak athlete like Bowman in the mid to late second is a huge upside move if given the proper time and development.

Honorable Mentions, I Guess:

• Jaylen Hands — I truly believe that Hands has unreal potential if he can figure out how to play the game of basketball. I usually want players leaving to collect that money, but in the case of Jaylen Hands, I really do hope he comes back. Instead of pulling a Archie Goodwin, he needs to pull an Andrew Jones. For a young freshman, Hands has shown a ridiculous pull-up jumper and smooth overall feel as a scorer. For most freshman , they look like adults or at least have an advanced frame, but not Hands. He looks his age.
• Tony Carr — Big 6’5 PG who knows how to use his bulk to bully opposing guards around, has a weird slow motion that might be better used off-ball. A decent athlete, will need to show he can score in the midrange. Fell on my board.
• Keenan Evans — Big time competitor, could be a steal in the mid second round as a scoring specialist off the bench. I wouldn’t want to fight him, and even if you did knock him down, he would just keep coming at you until he died.
• Jevon Carter — Like Evans, I wouldn’t want to fight Jevon Carter but for different reasons. Don’t know if he is a true PG, but he has range on his jumper and is a rabid wolverine on defense
• Jaylen Adams — Great shooter, underrated distributor but really needs to buckle down on defense if he wants to make it. Could be next year’s Antonio Blakeney.
• De’Anthony Melton — Wasn’t the biggest fan of his last year, I wrote about the reasoning in my preseason big board. I wouldn’t be surprised if a team took him in the second half of the first round. I don’t think it is crazy to have the other guys listed above him either. Probably between him or Hands as first left off the board.

Even though I don’t use many stats, the ones I do use come from the Stepien Shot Tool. Hey! Thanks to the Stepien Shot Tool for help on getting the numbers listed above, it is a wild ass fun tool to use.

Note: Yes, I wrote that part about cigs and whatnot about a 3 months ago, but I enjoyed what I wrote so I kept it. I also think it’s still true — his freshman campaign was a Denis Villeneuve movie from start to finish. Due to his flaming hot start, people are now more open to his flaws, but you have to be blind if you didn’t see these in the first two months.

Note 2: Kemba is just a point of reference, as it took time for him to develop into the player he is. Kemba is more of a Top-10 Lead Guard then a Top-20.

Note 3: Calling him the next Ben Gordon is not a diss at all. Ben Gordon was amazing and a new age version of him would be just as awesome.