ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE, POLITICS & PREDICTIVE AI

Reflecting on My AI Presidential Debate Prediction

What Went Wrong with ChatGPT’s Biden vs Trump Debate Prediction?

Using a “future narrative” technique, AI predicted Biden would edge out Trump in the 2024 presidential debate. However, by most accounts, the reality favored Trump.

The 2024 debate between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump sparked a lot of interest and discussion. Held on June 27, 2024, this debate was highly anticipated, given the contentious political atmosphere and the high stakes for both candidates. In my previous article, I used AI and Baylor research to predict the outcome of the debate. The AI predicted a slight edge for Biden based on the “future narrative” prompt technique. This approach uses ChatGPT to simulate the likely future outcome based on aggregated collective insights. However, this prediction was incorrect.

Various sources have pointed out that public perception heavily leaned towards Trump as the winner of this debate. This sentiment was echoed from both sides, with many Democrats expressing doubts about Biden’s performance, particularly concerning his age and public speaking issues​.

Betting odds prior to the debate slightly favored Biden, with sportsbooks offering odds of -125 for Biden…