Who is this year’s worst-to-first NFL team?
Which 2015 bottom feeder will win its division in 2016?
It happens every year, and it shocks us every time. An NFL team is terrible, loses all season, gets a top-10 draft pick and is all but forgotten that offseason … and suddenly wins its division the next year out of the blue.
If it feels like you’ve heard that story before, it’s because you have. In 12 of the past 13 seasons, at least one team that finished last the previous season flipped the script and won the division the next year. Last year it was the Washington Redskins who improved from 4–12 to 9–7 and won the NFC East.
The NFL wants parity, and this is the ultimate sign of parity. No matter how bad these bottom feeders were last year, history tells us at least one of them will likely win the division this season. So which team is most likely to do it?
8. San Francisco (5–11)
A lot of things need to happen for a team to go from worst to first. We need some reason to believe they might not have been as bad last year as it looked. We need proof they’ve improved this year. A good schedule helps. And the competition matters — the division has to be winnable.
The NFC West is not winnable. The 49ers would need to pass the two best, most complete teams in the NFC, and they’d need to do it with one of the worst starting QBs in the league in Blaine Gabbert.
Carlos Hyde is healthy, and Chip Kelly might do Chip Kelly stuff. Of course Chip Kelly might also do NFL Chip Kelly stuff, and this team is a dumpster fire of injuries and retired guys and locker room issues.
Though the 49ers host the lowly Rams on Monday night week one, they are a home underdog. They may not be favored once all season. This team has a much better chance of picking #1 next season than winning its division.
7. Cleveland (3–13)
The Browns are pretty bad, and the competition is tough. Considering how light the AFC South and West are (more on that later), the Browns likely face three of the four best AFC teams in their own division. It feels like the tide is slowly beginning to change, but we’re a year or two away.
There’s a real chance of the Browns losing their first seven or eight games this season. They should get a pair of top-seven picks next year and may finally get a shot at that top quarterback. But Cleveland’s only real hope this year is catching lightning in a bottle with Robert Griffin and hoping LeBron’s Cleveland magic hasn’t worn off yet.
6. Miami (6–10)
There’s reason to believe in Miami this year by way of Tom Brady’s suspension. New England has won 10+ games in thirteen straight seasons, including 12+ wins over each of the past six years. With Brady out four games, the door is at least slightly ajar.
It’s probably not enough. Miami would need to improve by at least four wins, maybe more, and there’s just little reason to see that happen. They downgraded Lamar Miller to Arian Foster this offseason and otherwise return a pretty torpid offense and a quarterback in Ryan Tannehill that inspires no one. The defense gambled on veterans Mario Williams, Kiko Alonso, and Byron Maxwell, all on the wrong side of their primes. The offensive line should be better but there’s just not much to get excited about.
5. Chicago (6–10)
The biggest thing Chicago has going for it is a pretty winnable division. Minnesota’s hopes were crippled with Teddy Bridgewater’s injury (and further crushed by the Sam Bradford trade), the the Lions are as terrible as ever. This division is one Aaron Rodgers injury away from being wide open.
The thing is that those hopes fall on the shoulders of the mercurial Jay Cutler. That’s the same Cutler who was benched in multiple games last year, for no one in particular. It’s also the same Cutler who is still somehow better than half the QBs starting this Sunday. The passing attack could be dynamic with Kevin White joining Alshon Jeffery, and the defense should be better.
The Bears have a good chance to hang around .500 and maybe even feign interest in a wildcard berth, but the divisional chances hinge on Green Bay.
4. Tampa Bay (6–10)
The Bucs are everyone’s worst-to-first pick year after year. Just ask Bill Barnwell and Robert Mays who used to pick them to break out for Grantland (may she rest in peace) every season.
The reasons are all there again. Sophomore quarterback Jameis Winston showed some flashes, and it’s pretty common for second-year quarterbacks to take a big step forward. He, Doug Martin, and Mike Evans give Tampa a dangerous set of triplets on offense, and the team played well for no-longer-interim coach Dirk Koetter down the stretch last season after pretty blatantly quitting on Lovie Smith early in the year. The defense should be improved under Mike Smith and some early draft picks as well. There’s hope.
The problem is, until we actually see some of the younger players step up, this is still clearly the worst team in the NFC South and Jameis is still definitely the worst quarterback in the division.
What’s the old saying … Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me, fool me three times, get blocked by Bill Barnwell? Tampa probably isn’t ready yet, but there’s at least hope for a big leap forward.
3. San Diego (4–12)
And now we’ve come to the three biggest contenders. San Diego definitely wasn’t as bad as their 4–12 record looked last season. These Chargers had finished .500 or better in ten of the previous eleven seasons, a squad that specializes in winning 7 to 9 games like clockwork every season. Last year they were decimated by injuries, especially to the offensive line where they used 24 different five-man combos last year, and everything fell apart. This year is almost certain to be better.
There’s more good news. Philip Rivers is not a lot of things, but he is in fact the best quarterback in the division — and that makes the Chargers unique on this list. The Broncos are the defending Super Bowl champs but have no real quarterback. The Raiders and Chiefs are good but not great. Everyone in this division is fairly talented and that should keep things wide open — but also limit San Diego’s chances too.
Rivers had his best season in 2013 under offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt, and Wiz is back as OC this year. The offensive line is healthy. Young players like Melvin Gordon, Manti Te’o, and Joey Bosa could step up. The Chargers will be back in the mix — but that may not be enough.
2. Tennessee (3–13)
The Titans? Really?? Yes really, and for a number of reasons.
The biggest reason is the utter winnability of this terrible division and a very easy schedule. The Titans’ first nine games are all very winnable, buoyed by getting Minnesota week one fresh off the Bridgewater injury. They could easily match last year’s win total by the end of the month and they have a real shot to be something like 6–2 at the midpoint if they play well.
This is easily the worst division in football. The Jaguars have exciting young talent but have yet to do anything with it. The Texans and Colts are built entirely around J.J. Watt and Andrew Luck — both still shaking off rust after injuries, and both with plenty of question marks. Nine games may win this division, maybe eight.
The Titans’ schedule is incredibly easy. It’s possible they’ll face a top-15 quarterback just 4 times all season (Rodgers, Rivers, and Luck x2). It’s also possible they may have a top-15 quarterback of their own.
Marcus Mariota quietly had a terrific rookie season, even if no one noticed. His 7.6 yards per attempt were 9th best ever for qualifying rookie quarterbacks, similar to Russell Wilson and Cam Newton and ahead of Marino, Kelly, Moon and Luck. Mariota also had the sixth best completion % and passer rating for a rookie quarterback and two of his three wins last season were fourth quarter comebacks. Many compared Mariota’s playing style to Russell Wilson as he entered the league, and look how similar their rookie seasons were:
And remember, Russell Wilson was 24 years old as a rookie. Mariota was 21, yet he was right there in touchdown percentage, YPA, completion percentage, all the metrics — all of them except wins of course. And that’s when we remember how much more Wilson had to work with in Seattle, an offensive line and a run game and a defense and top coaching staff. Mariota arguably had none of that and played quite well anyway.
This season Mariota has a retooled offense with a ton of stock put into the offensive line and a beefed up running game with DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry ready to run, run, run. A lot of pundits wonder how a quarterback that plays like Mariota can perform in such a slow-paced running offense — maybe they should watch Seattle?
Tennessee is not Seattle, but they don’t have to be in this division. So when you’re looking for a long shot this fall — remember the Titans.
1. Dallas (4–12)
The Cowboys fell apart last season and lost eight more games than they had the previous year — which sounds terrible until you realize that’s exactly what should happen when you lose DeMarco Murray, Tony Romo, and Dez Bryant for most or all of the season. Just look how Green Bay struggled last season without Jordy Nelson or how bad Indianapolis was without Andrew Luck. Those teams were missing just one star; Dallas lost all three of their triplets.
They have a new set of triplets now, and their names are Dez, Zeke, and Dak.
Dallas was the obvious answer to this worst-to-first question a month ago, but then Tony Romo went and got hurt on his third play of the preseason. He’s out half the year now, maybe longer, and the Cowboys will start a fourth round rookie in his place. And actually, that might just be perfect.
For once, expectations are down in Dallas and they’re a bit off the radar, but there’s still plenty to like. The team still has the best offensive line in football and might have the most dynamic running back / wide receiver combo in the league with stud rookie Ezekiel Elliott already looking the part. The Greg Hardy distraction is gone, and the defense is bound to be healthier and better than last season. No one should run away with the division, and the schedule is favorable especially from Thanksgiving forward with the three most important divisional games near the end when Romo should be back.
But will he be? There’s some serious Brady-Bledsoe potential here with Prescott and Romo. Dak obviously isn’t Brady, but Tony Romo smells awfully Bledsoe-y. He’s been really good but might not be anymore, may not be able to maneuver in the pocket or keep himself upright for a whole season. And the Cowboys have exactly the team you’d want if you had to start an unproven rookie — an awesome run game, a couple great receivers (don’t forget sure-handed Jason Witten), and a coach good at developing QBs.
And the crazy thing is Dak Prescott might actually be pretty good. He had 6.0% TDs and 3.1% INT in college with an 8.0 YPA — pretty good numbers — and he led usually-forgettable Mississippi State to 19 wins over the last two seasons — the same Miss State that just returned most of its non-Dak roster and lost to FCS South Alabama this weekend. Prescott was terrific in the preseason too, the #1 ranked quarterback by Pro Football Focus. And sure it’s “just preseason” but 78% completions, 7 TDs, and 0 interceptions sort of speaks for itself, whenever and whoever you’re playing.
Aren’t these Cowboys the perfect Ewing theory team? Wouldn’t it be so Tony Romo to finally have the perfect team only to see Dak look great as a starter for six weeks and have Jerry Jones give him the keys to the kingdom while poor Romo watches from the sidelines?
This Dak thing may be real, and the Cowboys might be too. And that’s why, even without Tony Romo, they are this year’s most likely worst to first team.
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