US Open 2019 Predictions — Can Novak Djokovic win his third Grand Slam title of this year?
Six weeks after the epic finale at Wimbledon Championships, attention of the Tennis world will shift towards Flushing Meadows for the final Grand Slam tournament of the year. The 139th edition of the US Open will kick off on August 26th 2019 at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, with defending champion Novak Djokovic aiming to win his third Grand Slam title of the year and increase his tally to 17 Grand Slam titles.
Based on the success I had with my French Open predictions in May, I thought of doing a similar write up based on the US Open draw released on Thursday.
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Since Australian Open 2004, the big three (Federer, Nadal and Djokovic) has won 53 of the 63 grand Slam tournaments held and at least one of them has featured in the finals 59 of those. Therefore, backed by those impressive and intimidating stats, all three of them go in to the US Open as top 3 seeds and the overwhelming favorites for the title.
Among them, World No.1 Djokovic appears to be the clear favorite to win his 4th US Open title. Even though, he failed to defend his title at Cincinnati Masters, Novak has been in top form when it comes to Grand Slams winning 4 of last 5 tournaments. However, this is not the unbeatable Djokovic of 2015–16 that used to dominate everyone on tour, therefore given the results of French Open and Wimbledon both Federer and Nadal would believe they will have a very good chance of beating him at the Arthur Ashe stadium.
In addition to these three legends, Daniil Medvedev emerges as the best bet of the next generation players, thanks to an impressive run of performances at Washington, Rogers Cup and Cincinnati Masters. Although, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Dominic Thiem did impress in the first half of the year, there performances after Wimbledon isn’t noteworthy.
Draw Analysis — Projected Opponents and predictions
First Quarter
Top players — Djokovic (1), Medvedev (5), Fognini (11), Anderson (16), Wawrinka (23), Basilashvili (17)
Top seed Djokovic has a tricky draw where he is projected to play Carballés Baena, Sam Querrey and Dušan Lajović in the first three games. Even though, he is expected to win these three games without major difficulty, an in form Querrey has the potential to trouble and take a set or two away from any top player.
Given the multiple injury setbacks Kevin Anderson had in the past few months, I would pick Hubert Hurkacz or Wawrinka to qualify for fourth round based on the result of their second round match. Considering his experience and recent form, 2016 champion Wawrinka has what it takes to overcome Hurkacz and Anderson to set up an interesting clash with Novak Djokovic.
I would expect a rejuvenated Stan to play his best against Novak and win a set, however Novak will qualify for the quarterfinals after four close sets.
From the lower half of this quarter Medvedev will qualify over Basilashvili or Reilly Opelka. Even though, 2019 Monte-Carlo Masters champion Fabio Fognini appears to be a better bet than both Basilashvili and Reilly Opelka, ankle injury suffered at the Rogers Cup might result in him exiting the tournament early. Given his current form and the favorable draw, I believe Medvedev is the firm favorite to reach the first Grand Slam quarterfinal of his career.
Projected Quarterfinal — Djokovic (1) vs. Medvedev (5)
Prediction — These two already meet three times this year. While an inform Djokovic defeated Medvedev in four close sets at the Australian Open fourth round, the Russian had the better of the top seed at Monte Carlo and Cincinnati Masters events. However, beating Djokovic in a five set match might not be a possibility for the talented Russian at this point.
Therefore, I would expect Novak Djokovic to qualify for the Semifinals after a nerve-wracking five set encounter.
Second Quarter
Top players — Federer (3), Nishikori (7), Ćorić (12), Goffin (15), Raonic (21), Pouille (25)
Roger Federer is expected to breeze through the first two rounds and then he will have an interesting match-up against the Australian Open semifinalist Lucas Pouille. Even though Roger is expected to win this encounter Pouille should win a set against the Swiss maestro.
Roger is projected to face an inform David Goffin in the fourth round. Even though, Cincinnati Masters finalist Goffin has only defeated Federer once in their 9 previous meetings, his current form suggest he has the potential go down fighting and take a set or even two from Federer.
Bottom half of this quarter is led by a consistent Kei Nishikori, who has reached the quarterfinals or better in last five Grand Slam tournaments. Given the draw he should have straightforward wins in the first three rounds before meeting either Coric, Raonic or a resurgent Dimitrov. Although Coric is the favorite to reach the fourth round, I have a feeling Dimitrov will beat him in second round and then Raonic will beat Dimitrov to set up a fourth round match up with Nishikori. Nishikori will beat Raonic in three sets to reach his sixth consecutive Grand Slam quarterfinal.
Projected Quarterfinal — Federer (3) vs. Nishikori (7)
Prediction — Nishikori has only one win against big three in Grand Slams (beating Novak in 2014 US Open semifinals), can he claim his second against Roger?
He will have a chance if both Pouille and Goffin can push Roger to go the distance in their matches. Otherwise I see Roger beating Nishikori in straight sets, which I predict as the likely outcome.
Third Quarter
Top players — Thiem (4), Tsitsipas (8), Bautista Agut (10), Monfils (13), Auger-Aliassime (18), Berrettini (24), Kyrgios (28)
For me this will be the most unpredictable and the most interesting quarter of the draw. All top players mentioned above can reach the semifinals from this quarter. In addition, there will be bunch of very interesting first round matches (Tsitsipas vs. Rublev, Johnson vs. Kyrgios, Berrettini vs. Gasquet, and Auger-Aliassime vs. Shapovalov).
From the top half I would expect Kyrgios and Bautista Agut to meet in the fourth round. En route to the fourth round Kyrgios will beat Tsitsipas in the third round, while the consistent Bautista Agut will have the better of veteran Gasquet. After an entertaining fourth round match full of drama and arguments, I expect the Spaniard to get over the talented but erratic Aussie in four or five sets.
Lower half of the quarter will see a close tussle among Thiem, Auger-Aliassime and Monfils. Thiem has improved his game on hard courts and slightly slower conditions at Flushing Meadows will help the Austrian, who won the Indian Wells title in March. However, there are doubts over his fitness and preparation as he played couple of clay court tournaments after Wimbledon and pulled out of Cincinnati siting illness. Monfils also retired from the Rogers cup semifinal due to an ankle injury. Even though, these factors favor Auger-Aliassime, the level of play Thiem brings into the table when in top form should be sufficient for him go through to the quarterfinals beating the Canadian teenager in four sets.
Projected Quarterfinal — Bautista Agut (10) vs. Thiem (4)
Prediction — Although Thiem can be excellent when in top form, he is yet to show consistency in hard courts as he has done on clay. For this reason, I’m predicting Bautista Agut to reach the semifinals above Thiem in five sets.
Fourth Quarter
Top players — Nadal (2), Zverev (6), Khachanov (9), Isner (14), Schwartzman (20), Čilić (22), Verdasco (32)
Nadal is the favorite to emerge victorious from the bottom half of this quarter and has relatively comfortable two matches early against Millman and Kokkinakis, two players mainly known for their victories over Roger Federer in 2018. Afterwards, he is scheduled to meet his compatriot and longterm rival Verdasco. Even though Nadal should go through to the fourth round without much complications all three of his opponents (especially Verdasco) are capable of pulling off a giant killing performance when in form.
Nadal’s fourth round opponent can be either Čilić, Isner or Jan-Lennard Struff. Given the poor form shown by Čilić throughout the year, I’m picking Isner to reach the fourth round and go down to Nadal in four sets.
From the top half of the quarter Frances Tiafoe is expected to reach the fourth round over Sascha Zverev and Benoît Paire. However, he will bow down to Karen Khachanov who is expected to make the quarterfinals of US Open for the first time beating Schwartzman and Tsonga en route to fourth round.
Projected Quarterfinal — Nadal (2) vs. Khachanov (9)
Prediction — The Russian is a tough competitor who consistently produce quality performances. I expect to witness a highly competitive encounter like in US Open 2018 and Nadal will use experience to win the match in four sets.
Semifinals
Djokovic (1) vs. Federer (3)
As projected first semifinal would be a repeat of the Wimbledon finals when Djokovic and Federer meet for the 49th time at 2019 US Open final. Based on my projected route Novak will have a tougher path to the semis with couple of very tough matches against Stan and Medvedev, therefore fatigue will play a major part in these games. Federer is also expected to have couple of lengthy matches against Goffin and Pouille, however, I would expect him to dispose Nishikori in straight sets.
However, based on the conditions at Arthur Ashe Stadium and the results of the past few years, I would predict Novak to turn up as the winner after another exhilarating four set encounter which will include couple of tie-breakers.
Nadal (2) vs. Bautista Agut (10)
Can Bautista Agut beat Nadal for the first time in their first meeting away from clay? Don’t think so, unless Rafa is tired or having injury concerns like last year. However, this year Rafa is well rested after his triumph at Montreal and seems to be in top physical condition.
Therefore, I would predict a comfortable straight sets win for Nadal to set up a mouthwatering clash against Djokovic in the final.
Final
Djokovic (1) vs. Nadal (2)
Nadal and Djokovic (“Djodal” according to many fans) will meet for the 55th time in their career and 16th time at a Grand Slam event. With a 28–26 head-to-head favoring Djokovic, this rivalry will go the history as the most competitive match-up in history of men’s tennis.
Even though, Djokovic has a much better record on hard courts, slower conditions at Arthur Ashe Stadium brings Nadal in to contention. In fact, two of his US Open triumphs were against Djokovic (2010 and 2013). In addition, Nadal had the advantage of a weaker draw compared to Djokovic who has to go through Stan, Medvedev and Roger. Given the physicality of these two players, fatigue will also play a part in the result.
Therefore, I’m favoring Nadal to win his fourth US Open final in 2019 on 8th of September after a four set battle to increase his Grand Slam tally to 19.
Do you agree with the predictions? If not, who do you think will win the US Open 2019?
I would love to know your thoughts. Leave a comment!