Unbalanced Trade Deadline Series: Blake Rutherford and Tommy Kahnle
An opinionated #hottake on the trade that cost the Yankees their best available asset
This piece of the Unbalanced Trade Deadline Series is not speculation, but rather a retrospective on the trade that sent Todd Frazier, David Robertson, and Tommy Kahnle to the Yankees. The Yankees sent LHP Ian Clarkin, RHP Tyler Clippard, OF Tito Polo, and top OF prospect Blake Rutherford to the White Sox. Our very own John Edwards discussed the magnitude of the return for the Yankees; I will be examining what they gave up, and specifically Blake Rutherford, who was named the 36th best prospect in the league by Baseball America.
Todd Frazier is a $5 million rental who represents a bandaid for the Yankees’ hole at first/third base. Todd Frazier is a solid defender and a solid bat, but not much else. He has a 103 wRC+ in his last 1000 plate appearances; the league average for 3B in that time period has been 105. He has strong UZR numbers at third in his career, but they are also propped up by seasons he had when he was younger. I don’t mean to bash Frazier, because this is a crude way to analyze a player (especially when one could make the case there is plenty of juice left in his bat), but I want to make it clear that Frazier is not an elite position player in the way that fellow rental J.D. Martinez is.
To refresh you, J.D. Martinez has the tenth highest wRC+ in all of baseball since 2016. Here’s what a half season of that bat was valued at yesterday:
Scraps. The Tigers have acquired scraps. If that’s what Detroit got for Martinez, then one has to assume Frazier wouldn’t require much more than that. David Robertson is an elite reliever under contract through 2018 — for a high price of $18 million. It’s safe to say that the Yankees taking on effectively $15.5 million of that (with Tyler Clippard’s $2.5 million contract going to Chicago) makes him a little more valuable than Frazier, but not much.
So far, the return for Chicago makes sense. LHP Ian Clarkin is an interesting prospect with a lot of injuries and a lot of talent. Tyler Clippard is salary relief for Robertson. Tito Polo was acquired for his incredible name. But this is where things go haywire on New York’s end: including Blake Rutherford.
Let’s be clear; we haven’t discussed the last player the Yankees have acquired, and that’s Tommy Kahnle. There is a lot of praise to be made for Kahnle, so I’ll link you to this Jeff Sullivan article that covers it. Kahnle is great! Andrew Miller-esque! Under control through 2020! He also has a track record of 30 innings. Relievers are volatile, and their value is tied to the present. And this isn’t quantifiable, but LaTroy Hawkins is on record saying Kahnle is hands down the worst teammate he’s ever had, so take that for what it’s worth. I think Kahnle has a lot of value if this is who he’ll be for the next few years, but we won’t know that until we have a larger sample size. With Frazier and Robertson’s contract being deemed as “meh” on the trade market, we are left with Tommy Kahnle being the piece that made Blake Rutherford the headliner in this trade rather than a fringe top 100, such as 3B Miguel Andujar or RHP Albert Abreu.
Somehow, I can’t shake the feeling that this deal could have easily consummated with either of those guys in lieu of Blake Rutherford. I recently identified Rutherford as the most valuable tradable asset the Yankees have in the Jose Quintana edition of this series (and Rutherford was indeed the centerpiece of the Yankees’ offer for Quintana). At $38.2 million of surplus value, I felt that Rutherford could be the headliner in a trade for Sonny Gray (whom I valued at $50 million). Now, the Yankees are left without any non-Torres/C. Frazier top shelf talent in their hunt for controllable starting pitching.
Maybe the Yankees are down on Rutherford and don’t mind sending him away — there have been reports of that. Maybe the Athletics have an unreasonable price tag on Sonny Gray, and the Yankees are waiting until free agency to add starting pitching — there have been reports of that too. Even though Rutherford is worth $38.2 million and Gray is worth $50 million in my eyes, that doesn’t mean major league teams see it that way. Evaluations by analysts aren’t supposed to be spot on, but they are supposed to be in the ballpark, and the reason for the major deviation here isn’t publicly available information. Maybe the Yankees are just that confident in Tommy Kahnle. I believe the deal could have been done for less and that Rutherford could have been dealt somewhere else for more, but there’s no way for me to know if Brian Cashman already realized that may be impossible. The Frazier/Robertson/Kahnle blockbuster may seem a little odd to me now, especially if this month passes without the Yankees acquiring starting pitching, but the rational way to react is to reserve judgement on the inclusion of Blake Rutherford for a few more years; somebody will be proven right about Blake Rutherford, and somebody will be proven right about Tommy Kahnle.
