NFL Predictions: Week 1, 2019
Plus, a more detailed look at my top five games of the week.
Welcome to the first week of my 2019 NFL predictions. In case you missed it, I released my opening power rankings yesterday, and the plan moving forward is to drop power rankings on Wednesdays and game picks on Thursdays.
Last year, I went 161–93–2 straight up, and 127–121–8 against the spread. This season, I’ll aim to do better, but for now, the focus is on opening things off with a strong Week 1.
You can see all of my picks above, but I’ll also be giving some additional thoughts on my top five matchups each week. These could be big-name showdowns, divisional games with playoff implications, or anything I think could be close or intriguing.
With that in mind, here’s my Top 5 for Week 1.
5. Rams (-2) @ Panthers (Sun/12pm)
After their disappointing performance in the Super Bowl, the Rams, led by their coach/QB duo of Sean McVay and Jared Goff (the new wealthiest man in the NFL) will look to pick back up where they left off in the 2018 regular season.
The first step in their journey back to the Super Bowl won’t be an easy one, as they travel cross-country to face Cam Newton and the Panthers, who themselves will be looking to bounce back. Luckily for LA, Todd Gurley appears to be healthy, and the team has just as many weapons on both sides of the ball as they did a year ago.
Favored by just two points, I expect the Rams to have an efficient day offensively and be able to force a pair of crucial turnovers to give them a 28–21 victory.
4. Vikings (-3.5) vs. Falcons (Sun/12pm)
When the Falcons take on the Vikings in the early games on Sunday, fans will be treated to a pair of teams with the potential to really break out this season. Both of these offenses have the ability to put up 30+ points in this game and put on quite the show in the process.
Minnesota had a top defense in 2017 that faltered a bit in 2018, dropping from 1st to 9th in points allowed and giving up an extra 91 points in the process. I think we’ll see more of a recent to form this season from the Vikings’ defensive unit, which puts a ton of pressure on the Falcons defense to match that intensity.
I’d expect to see the Vikings take the lead early. Matt Ryan will attempt to lead the comeback but end up just a bit short. Vikings 31–27.
3. Saints (-7) vs. Texans (Mon/6:10pm)
After a whirlwind of trades and drama around the Texans over the last few weeks, I’m sure they’d love to settle into the regular season with a pancake opponent. That won’t be happening.
There might not be a hungrier team in the NFL than the Saints after how close they came in both of the last two seasons. They’re favored by a full seven points against the Texans, which might be a point or two higher than I expected.
Still, I think they’ll cover, but it’ll take a committed performance for 60 minutes. Any slip-ups and Houston’s big-play potential will make them pay. 28–20 Saints.
2. Bears (-3) vs. Packers (Thurs/7:20pm)
There’s nothing like Bears-Packers. It’s one of the oldest rivalries in sports. Kudos to the NFL for giving us this matchup to kick off the season. Bears fans are confident in their team’s ability to make the Super Bowl as long as they have a competent kicking game.
Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers and new Packers coach Matt LaFleur will be looking to return to the postseason. With what could become a competitive three-team NFC North race along with the Vikings (sorry, Lions fans), it would be huge for Green Bay to steal one at Soldier Field. Still, I see the Bears as a more complete team and expect them to get the win.
I would go 27–20 Bears, but I’ll call for a missed extra point just to raise the collective blood pressure of Chicago. 26–20.
1. Patriots (-5.5) vs. Steelers (Sun/7:20pm)
How many amazing games have we seen these two teams play over the years? It’s a Sunday night classic — Patriots and Steelers. These franchises account for six Super Bowls apiece and have been the AFC’s Super Bowl participant in 12 of the 19 seasons so far this century.
As reigning champions and the home team in this one, the Patriots have the advantage. For Pittsburgh, though, James Conner and JuJu Smith-Schuster have proven to be great replacements for the much more problematic Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown. This team shouldn’t miss a beat, and will likely be better than last season.
Still, that won’t be enough to knock off New England. Pats 31–24.
Connor Groel is a writer who studies sport management at the University of Texas at Austin. He also serves as editor of the Top Level Sports publication on Medium, and the host of the Connor Groel Sports podcast. You can follow Connor on Medium, Facebook, and Twitter, and view his archives at toplevelsports.net
