A journey into
climate transition
– with milestones passed by
Allan Larsson has been the chair of Viable Cities’ board since the program started in 2017. At the annual general meeting on April 15, 2021, he left the assignment and in this text, he summarizes the results achieved and his expectations for the future.
Guest author: Allan Larsson, former chair of Viable Cities’ board.
The text in Swedish here.
1. Four successful years
Viable Cities have been in operation for four years. During this time, we have not only built up a portfolio of innovations. We have also — in collaboration with the EU’s Horizon Europe — developed a new concept for innovation-based societal change, ”mission”, as a way to take a greater overall grip on climate transition. Our mission is based on the insight of the crucial role cities have in the climate transition — cities occupy only 3 per cent of the earth’s surface, but account for over 70 per cent of climate emissions.
We have established collaboration with nine cities to incorporate this new mission-driven approach — to become climate neutral in ten years — and we have formalized our agreements in the Climate City Contract 2030.
There was no detailed three-year plan when we started. Viable Cities is an innovation program, our task is to develop new ideas, implement and evaluate. We have done this in a continuous dialogue with municipalities, business, academia and civil society.
Viable City’s activity during the first three-year period has been evaluated with very good reviews. We are in our second three-year period and we now expect additional strong financial resources. We have made a new call and we can now engage another 11 cities in speeding up the pace of the transition to becoming climate neutral by 2030.
These results are far above our expectations when we started in 2017.
2. Milestones along the way
I would like to supplement this summary of the results of our journey with a look at some of the milestones we have passed along the way:
First Brussels, in 2018. During the visit, we became acquainted with the new focus of the EU’s research and innovation program, the idea of “missions” as a way of implementing major societal change processes instead of many small-scale projects. It was inspiring.
Since 2019, the EU Mission Board and the interaction with Viable Cities. It has been a parallel process where I could contribute with our ideas on Climate City Contracts and we could benefit from the large and broad approach that the European Commission is taking, for example, to include ”the entire value chain ”, and the cities’ need for a “one-stop-shop”.
The political anchoring with the mayors and the management teams at the beginning of 2020. The ideas about Klimatkontrakt 2030 (Climate City Contract 2030) as a new form of cooperation between state and municipality, were well received. It felt as if Viable Cities became an agent for the municipalities’ demands against the government for new forms of cooperation to give momentum to the climate transition.
The fourth stop, European Viable Cities Day on 11 December, for three years in a row. Through it, we have reached out internationally. And we have brought the international discussion into our work — thanks to Laurent Fabius, chair of the Paris Climate Summit 2015; Jean-Eric Paquet from the European Commission; Jan Eliasson, former Deputy Secretary-General of the United Nations, and Anna Lisa Boni from EuroCities — and more.
Viable Cities now functions as a European ”living lab” for the EU Green Deal initiative on climate-neutral cities. Other countries want to follow suit, and we have a good dialogue with several of them.
3. What happens next?
In retrospect, it may seem as if we had followed a straight path to success. That is not the case, there has been a constant discussion about what should be the next step, the next initiative. This is also how it will look in the future when we continue the journey into climate transition.
Our focus is to develop the Climate City Contracts as an effective form of a delivery mechanism for state and EU support to municipalities. This year we run three parallel projects — digitization, citizen participation and climate investment plans — to support the municipalities’ climate roadmaps. At the end of the year, they will form the basis for updating the climate contracts — and an increase in ambition on a broad front.
Why are we putting so much gunpowder on these plans? The answer is simple:
We need to understand the large investment flows and what potential they have for climate change
We need to be able to foresee the major changes that will take place in policies/regulations and innovations — to be able to do the right thing from the beginning
We need to be able to explain these connections to those who ultimately make decisions about climate transition — the political leaderships in the municipalities and on the national level.
Thus: Understand, foresee, explain.
To help us with this, the climate investment plans need to have length, width and height:
Length: They will give us an overview of the next ten years, until 2030
Width: They include both city, business and household investments. The city’s investments are extensive, but still amounts to only 15–20 per cent of the total investments in a city
Height: They will anticipate changes in policy/regulations as a result of the EU’s new 2030 goal and the upgrade of all energy and climate directives, what is now called ’fit for 55’
One of the main benefits of these plans is that they help us define “climate policy deficit”, ie the difference between the current rate of change of 1–2 per cent, instead of the 7–10 per cent that is necessary to achieve the objectives of the Paris Agreement. How much do we have to gear up? We, therefore, are developing a method so that each municipality can make its own calculations.
Emission reductions are needed at a much higher rate than before and therefore investments in the transition must be scaled up properly. An additional € 1,000 per citizen and year must be invested over the next 10 years to cope with the changes in the cities’ transport and energy systems. This means that the investments each year have to increase by around 15 per cent compared to the current level of investment in buildings and means of transport (approx. € 6,500 per citizen and year). It is therefore extremely important to put in place structures, regulations and business models that make it possible to quickly bring in public and private actors who can finance the transition on the scale required.
What other benefits can we achieve from the climate investment plans?
Climate: Every investment is a choice between more or less sustainable solutions — they offer great potential to do the right thing
Health: It will lead to better air quality, better health and a better health economy — one of the major positive side effects of the climate transition
Jobs: Many new jobs will be created, but efforts will be needed to cope with the transition of the labour market
Financing: The climate investment plans form the basis for discussions on the coordination of governmental funding and innovative forms of financing from elsewhere
Business development: Shows great potential for the companies that can contribute to climate transition; innovation procurement can be an important method
Export: At the same time, every city that is driving climate transition becomes a strong partner in national export promotion
4. What will the future hold?
There is a lot we cannot predict, and need to be prepared for. Personally, I think the transition will go faster than we think today. I see the 2010s as a time of preparation, the 2020s will be a time of breakthroughs, large investments and major changes — in everything from industrial projects to our own everyday lives. These expectations are reinforced by what is happening globally: the EU initiative the Green Deal, the United States are back in the Paris Agreement and the climate cooperation between the US and China.
There are a lot of good examples of this that applies to our everyday lives. I’ll choose one, the transition to electric vehicles. The trade association Bil Sweden has shown that the Swedish car market fell by as much as 18 per cent last year compared with 2019. This has never happened before. Investors want to withdraw from such markets.
At the same time, sales of rechargeable cars increased by no less than 132 per cent. If this trend continues, the transition will be rapid. The auto industries are planning to end the production of fossil-fuelled cars and several countries are preparing legislation to phase out fossil-fuelled vehicles.
After 2025, who wants to buy a fossil-fuelled car, which will quickly lose value? How many municipalities, public housing companies and housing associations are prepared for this and are adapting the infrastructure accordingly?
I would like to broaden the discussion about the forthcoming change by quoting a report that Global Utmaning (Global Challenge) recently published, Climate Agenda for Sweden. In it, the future scenario was summarized as follows:
“A massive green technology leap is underway in renewable energy production, batteries, green hydrogen, carbon dioxide management and synthetic chemistry. This fundamentally changes the conditions for fossil-free solutions in industry and transport in particular. At the same time, a significantly more favourable market is emerging, as more and more countries set ambitious climate goals, and as more and more customers demand climate-smart products. Swedish companies have taken note of all this. Many of them think of it as a ”net-zero competition” that has begun, where it is important not to fall behind. In the last 2–3 years alone, ambitious plans have been formulated in areas such as iron and steel, chemistry, the metal industry, fuel production, industrial heating, passenger transport, freight transport, aviation, shipping, waste management and work machines.”
All wise decision-makers must take these new radical technical and economic changes and opportunities into account. This is what the political leaders in Swedish cities have realized when they signed Klimatkontrakt 2030 (Climate City Contract).
The discussion on investments and financing is important, but climate transition is not primarily a matter for experts and financiers. If climate transition is to succeed, citizens must be involved and be able to influence through their own decisions, as consumers and producers, and as owners of housing and means of transport. That is why the EU Mission Board highlights ”by and for citizens” in the name of the mission, and Viable Cities’ mission highlights — ”a good life for all within the planetary boundaries”.
Allan Larsson
Stockholm 2021–04–15
Viable Cities is an innovation program for climate neutral and sustainable cities. The aim is to accelerate the transition to inclusive and climate neutral cities by 2030 with digitalisation and citizen engagement as enablers. Running from 2017 to 2030, the program gathers 100 member organisations from industry, academia, public and civil society organisations and around 200 project partners. Viable Cities is one of 17 Swedish strategic innovation programs jointly funded by Vinnova, the Swedish Energy Agency and Formas. Viable Cities is coordinated by KTH, The Royal Institute of Technology.
