Climate Endgame Avoidance Bingo
Do you want to get to zero carbon? Why is it so hard to talk about?
“What’s your Zero Carbon Endgame?”
I’ve asked a lot of people the “endgame” question. It’s really a multi part question: What needs to happen to get us to zero carbon? What are your preferred plays to get to zero (your endgame portfolio)? Do they add up (roughly speaking/ballpark)? What are the gaps? What can you do to fill those gaps? Do you think you can get your fellow citizens on board with your endgame?
I’ve asked, and I’ve gotten a lot of non-answers. People are great at dodging this question! Patterns have emerged. Here they are in bingo card format.
How are these a dodge/excuse?
I recycle
At the center of the bingo card is the classic, “I recycle.” This is the “I gave at the office” dodge. Don’t get me wrong. Recycling is a great thing! We need to achieve a circular, completely recyclable economy. But most people who say “I recycle” aren’t dedicated to achieving the circular economy. They are doing a bare token minimum, hoping this “good thing” covers any climate change obligations as well. It doesn’t. Also, what happened to “reduce, reuse, repair, don’t consume disposables in the first place”?
- If you’re interested in exploring the recycling endgame, read Junkyard Planet.
- Watch this Video. Get serious. The planet is on the line. You need an endgame.
We have the solutions, We just lack political will
Really? What are the solutions? Do they pass the “Mom Test”?
In my experience, when I ask follow-up questions of those who insist they have solutions, I get vague assertions. Handwaving. “Solar power exists.” “The price of renewables is coming down.” OK, so? How are these assertions a plan? Have you thought beyond these lines?
The line, “we have the solutions” is designed to shut down any substantive discussion of solutions and shift the conversation to political gamesmanship. “Don’t think about the specifics of what we need to do and how best to do it. Don’t trouble your pretty head with the solutions. We have the solutions. Just do what we say and vote for this person.”
That person is supposed to execute the solutions, which are…
Easy! 100% Renewable Energy
Is it easy? You sure you want to limit yourself to 100% renewables? If so, are you laying the proper groundwork for that? Making sure people understand how much land will be used for it, and how extensive the retrofit operation has to be to get all the houses electrified?
Do you even know how much energy infrastructure is required for a 100% renewable solution? Like, how many wind turbines your state would need and where they would go?
How many wind turbines? How should I know?!
If you’re promoting a 100% renewable energy solution, you should know what’s involved. At least have a ballpark idea. Alas, most proponents, upon questioning, don’t.
If it helps, here’s a quick overview of a 100% renewable solution for New Jersey. Spoiler alert: on the offshore wind front, it comes to 72 wind turbines per mile. And not just down the entire New Jersey coast. Down the entire East Coast.
That’s a lot of wind turbines people aren’t being up front about.
We’ll all just live in zero emission houses
When you’re faced with the actual numbers of wind turbines and solar panels required for a 100% renewable solution, it’s a wake up call. A reality check. A chance to reflect on just how difficult the challenge is. A time to ask yourself how far you are really prepared to go with a given play.
Unfortunately, most people don’t use the time to reflect. Instead, they dodge the uncomfortable realization and quick-pivot to a different oversimplification. They wave their hands. “Oh, no, we won’t need that many (turbines/solar farms). We’ll just make the houses zero emission.”
Yes, improving home efficiency is an important part of any endgame. But you can’t just wave your hands and say that because a zero emission house exists somewhere, that all your housing stock can magically become zero emission.
The endgame question forces you to reckon with how far you can go in home efficiency, what it would take, and how much of the energy supply side that would shave off.
The endgame question is about making sure your preferred plays add up. Making sure you’ve thought through a portfolio of plays, and are aware of any gaps and shortfalls and unwelcome impacts. Front-load thinking it through.
Too Many Variables to Think Through
This is a classic dodge. “I can’t talk about my endgame, because I don’t know all the variables, and things change, and it’s complicated and let’s just push one thing for now.”
True, you don’t have all the variables, but you can certainly start with some rough estimates and refine them as more information comes forth. Regarding the 100% renewable solution, Mark Jacobson of the Solutions Project has done a lot of the work and calculation for you.
It’s a great baseline to start with.
There is a Plan
I’ve had this conversation with many environmentalists. I’ve shown them Mark Jacobson’s work. But the numbers are too high for their taste, so they dismiss it. “Oh no. That’s not a plan. Our people have looked at the situation and crunched the numbers and they have a great plan, a step by step plan that will get us to zero carbon with renewables.”
Wow! You have worked out some plan that’s better than Mark Jacobsons? You’ve got a better endgame? Awesome! Where is this plan, I would love to take a look at it.
Well…
Someone Else Has the Plan
Who? Oh, OK, Bob has the plan. He can hook me up.
So I go and ask Bob for the plan. And Bob says, “Oh, no. We’ve commissioned a plan. Stay tuned for that plan.”
This is a classic dodge. Most of the people in the organization are led to believe there is a plan, and it will totally work, even though there is no plan. Commissioning a plan is a delay tactic. There is enough information available right now to do a quick back of the envelope and put forth a rough, but plausible endgame.
But you keep hiding behind this alleged, about to be revealed, amazing plan someone has commissioned.
Stop stalling. Your plan will come out soon enough. And you won’t have an excuse to avoid discussing the uncomfortable plan already on the table. Face the plan. You may want to change parts of it (more wind, less solar, a push for geothermal, more housing efficiency), but roughly speaking, this plan gives you a good sense of the scale of the solutions. Take a good look at the Jacobson estimates. Decide what you like/don’t like about them. If Jacobson is right, and you’re going to need 9400 wind turbines off the New Jersey coastline (72 turbines PER MILE down the entire coast) and you’re not happy about that, what are your alternative plays? Nuclear power? Radical cuts in energy use? What’s the plan to make that happen?
What awkward conversations do we need to have? Let’s have them! Frontload the awkwardness! #RacetoZeroCarbon
All You Need Is…
We need all of the above. Great to see people so focused on key areas of the problem. Unfortunately, some people use their preferred solution as a way to dismiss everything else. They look to their favorite solution as the magic bullet. There’s no magic bullet.
We need everything and more!
Plastic Straws Are The Worst
Yes! Plastic pollution is awful. On the surface, this looks like an admirable thing to be talking about. But in the context of the endgame question, it’s actually an excuse/dodge.
The person is saying, “Yikes! Thinking of all it will take to get emissions to zero is too hard! How about I distract you with another huge problem! And imply that that’s the one I’m more focused on, so I’m busy, you see. Although I won’t do anything about either one. In fact, I’m on my way to a fast food place and get another meal with a plastic straw. Catch you later!”
Good news, eliminating plastics pollution requires a commitment to minimalism and using non-disposable products. This also reduces emissions, so it’s win win. Really. You’ll even be happier as a minimalist. Until the freedom overwhelms you.
I could go on...
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Step Up Your Game! #RaceToZeroCarbon
Get your zero carbon endgame on. What we need right now is a systematic, candid exploration of the solutions to decide what we are actually going to do about all this, from A to Z-ro Carbon.
Join us at Footprint to Wings to do just that. Help with the scoreboard is especially useful in this conversation.
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#NoExcuses
