The NFL Continuity Index: Part 4
Can past performance be a guarantee of future results in the NFL? Examining the continuity of the NFC East.
Check out Part 1 of the Continuity Index, which explains how continuity is measured for each team and examines the NFC West. Part 2 of the Continuity Index examines the NFC South, and you can see Part 3 which covers the NFC North by clicking here.
In Part 4 of the Continuity Index we examine the legendary teams of the NFC East. Here are the continuity totals for each team:
Cowboys 75.1 out of 100
Giants 71.1 out of 100
Eagles 44.3 out of 100
Redskins 37 out of 100
And here is an in-depth breakdown and analysis of each team’s situation:
Dallas Cowboys: 76.7% Continuity
Coaches: (Years completed in position) Jason Garrett HC (3+ Years)Scott Linehan OC (2 Years) Rod Marinelli DC (3+ Years) Continuity Score: 17.8 out of 20
QB & System: (Years on team and in system) Dak Prescott (1 Year, Both) Continuity Score: 6.6 out of 20
Defensive Scheme: (Years in system) “Base 4–3” (3+ Years) Continuity Score: 20 out of 20
Offensive Line: 3+ year starters: (3) two-year starters: (0) one-year starters: (1) first year starter or position battle: (1) Continuity Score: 6.6 out of 10
Defensive Personnel : 3+ year starters: (5) two-year starters: (2) one-year starters: (3) first year starter or position battle: (1) Continuity Score: 9 out of 11
Top Skill Positions: Leading Rusher : Zeke Elliot (1 Year) Leading Receiver: Dez Bryant (3+ Years) Continuity Score: 6.7 out of 10
Front Office: Jerry Jones Owner/GM (3+ years) Continuity Score: 9 out of 9
Analysis:
How Bout Them Cowboys! Or more specifically, how bout that 2016 draft? It’s amazing what one draft can do to change the dynamic of a team. The Cowboys went from being quarterbacked by BRANDON WEEDEN! in 2015 to going 13–3 and to being led by the best performance by a late round (4th round or later) rookie QB ever. Yes, Zeke Elliot is a great RB. Yes, he made a big difference too- but I fully, completely endorse Dak Prescott winning the Rookie of the Year award instead. Without Dak, Zeke would probably have had a 1000 yard season like McFadden did in 2015, but impossible to imagine the team being successful with Cassell/Weeden/Kellen More at QB.
The Cowboys are a bit of a surprise to lead the division in continuity because you think of them as a young team- and at QB and RB, they are. However, defensively they are finally starting to settle in. Rod Marenelli now has full implementation of his system, and it is working. Now if they can only keep their pass rushers on the field! Perhaps anything the Cowboys do gets magnified, but it seems like they have had a revolving door of injuries and suspensions at DE lately, which might be the one thing holding this team back from a championship run.
This might sound crazy, but I am a little concerned with what is considered the true strength of this team, as the offensive line has two new starters this season. Now they still have the best LT, and a top-3 center and guard, but the other two spots are in flux, which makes me wonder if we can expect the offense to be exactly the same. Don’t get me wrong, this is still an extremely talented group- probably 30 NFL teams would trade lines with the Cowboys- but I just think it would be smart to expect the offense to come back-to-earth a little based upon potential weak spots on the line and the league’s gameplanning catching up with Dak’s tendencies.
While it seems everyone likes to make fun of Jerry Jones for being the GM for his team, even hardened Cowboy haters will have to admit that his drafting has been pretty good lately. All the stars on his offense? He drafted them. We all know how good Zeke is, and getting the ROY and a star QB in the 4th round is franchise-changing. (Though if the Cowboys had their way, they would’ve traded up for Paxton Lynch instead. Thank God for unanswered prayers!) However, let’s not forget how good 3rd round pick Maliek Collins was last year too, and if Jaylon Smith can return healthy and be anywhere near the player he was in college- whew boy! So we need to give credit where credit is due. Jerry Jones is…maybe…actually…good at…evaluating football talent. There, I said it! That wasn’t nearly as painful as I thought it would be.
New York Giants: 71.1% Continuity
Coaches: (Years completed in position) Ben McAdoo HC & Playcaller (1 Year) Mike Sullivan OC (1 Year) Steve Spagnuolo DC (2 Years) Continuity Score: 8.8 out of 20
QB & System: (Years on team and in system) Eli Manning (3+Years & in System) Continuity Score: 20 out of 20
Defensive Scheme: (Years in system) “Base 43” (2 Years) Continuity Score: 13.3 out of 20
Offensive Line: 3+ year starters: (3) two-year starters: (1) one-year starters: (1) first year starter or position battle: (0) Continuity Score: 8 out of 10
Defensive Personnel : 3+ year starters: (2) two-year starters: (1) one-year starters: (8) first year starter or position battle: (0) Continuity Score: 5.3 out of 11
Top Skill Positions: Leading Rusher : Paul Perkins (1 Year) Leading Receiver: Odell Beckham Jr. (3+ Years) Continuity Score: 6.7 out of 10
Front Office: Jerry Reese GM (3+ Years) Continuity Score: 9 out of 9
Analysis:
2016 was a year of transition for the Giants, and they pulled it off. It’s amazing how the best organizations (The Giants, Patriots, Packers, Steelers, Broncos, Ravens) never really bottom out even when they go through big changes. It helps that Eli has been a constant, and while he is rarely given the same reverence his brother receives, you’d be surprised to know that might just end up surpassing Peyton’s career passing yards record if he plays as long as Peyton played for. 5 more years at about 4,500 yards a year (which is not a stretch) puts him right there- and if you think that this is something he might not care about doing, you probably didn’t grow up in the shadow of an older brother.
The Giants really came together fast defensively last year, because they were very good despite having 8 new starters. All 8 look to be back for year two, so in the least I think we can expect more of the same from them, if not some improvement. This might be bad news for Cowboys fans thinking that they’re the only team in the division with first year players on the ascension- especially since they couldn’t beat the Giants last year regardless.
Could Eli Manning finally have an elite fantasy QB season in 2017? I don’t do this often, but I’m going out on a limb and calling it. First, you can count on Eli to play every game- this is about a given as there is in the NFL. Second, I love their receiving core. It looks like the Giants decided to stand pat on their 29th-best-in-the-league running attack and instead double-down on their passing talent, adding an outside size mismatch in Brandon Marshall and an inside size mismatch/seam nightmare in Evan Engram to go with their shifty slot guy Sterling Shepard. And oh yeah, they still have that guy Odell Beckham Jr. catching passes for them. That guy is kind-of ok too. Therefore, what’s to stop the Giants from just slinging it every down? Or better question, how do defenses stop them? So I think Eli is being severely overlooked, with an average draft position of 16th for QBs, which means I will gladly wait on him in order to draft for depth in other positions. I don’t have any problem rolling with Eli as my #1 this year, and you shouldn’t either.
Philadelphia Eagles: 44.3% Continuity
Coaches: (Years completed in position) Doug Pederson HC & Playcaller (1 Year) Frank Reich OC (1 Year), Jim Schwartz DC (1 Year) Continuity Score: 6.6 out of 20
QB & System: (Years on team and in system) Carson Wentz (1 Years & in System) Continuity Score: 6.6 out of 20
Defensive Scheme: (Years in system) “Base 43” (1 Year) Continuity Score: 6.6 out of 20
Offensive Line: 3+ year starters: (3) two-year starters: (1) one-year starters: (1) first year starter or position battle: (0) Continuity Score: 8 out of 10
Defensive Personnel : 3+ year starters: (4) two-year starters: (1) one-year starters: (3) first year starter or position battle: (3) Continuity Score: 5.6 out of 11
Top Skill Positions: Leading Rusher : Ryan Matthews (Position Battle) Leading Receiver: Jordan Matthews (1 Year) Continuity Score: 1.6 out of 10
Front Office: Howie Roseman GM (3+ Years) Continuity Score: 9 out of 9
Analysis:
The Eagles may not have a great continuity score right now, but if you are going to blow things up, this is the way you do it. First, you hire a coach that continues the legacy of success you had- I love this because it also means they are able to keep the same draft philosophy that they had already built the team under during Andy Reid’s tenure. Second, and this may sound trite, but you don’t miss on a QB. As I explained when covering the Rams, there wasn’t a lot to like with Jared Goff last year, and as I explained with the Vikings, I’m not the biggest Sam Bradford fan in the world either. So in my opinion, they dodged a bullet on both counts.
While Carson Wentz went through some perfectly natural rookie growing pains, there was a lot to like last season. Year 2 should be even better, as the Eagles front office dipped into the free agency pool to give the team a pretty decent group of receivers, who as a unit probably add up to being greater than the sum of their parts. The same can be said of their now very unique group of RBs. Their offensive skill position philosophy has a very Patriot-y feel to it, with no super-duper star, but enough offensive diversity to be able to formulate a gameplan that now can depend on what their opponent that week is the worst at stopping. They can pound you with LeGarrette Blount, slash you with Ryan Matthews, or get super-shifty on you with the ageless Darren Sproles- all they have to do now is get Carson Wentz to run the offense like Brady, and they’ll be set. That shouldn’t be too much to ask, right? After all, Brady did win the Super Bowl in his second year- no pressure though.
Washington Redskins: 37% Continuity
Coaches: (Years completed in position) Jay Gruden HC (3+ Years) Playcaller (First Year) Bill Callahan Assistant HC (2 Years) Todd Matt Cavanaugh OC (First Year) Greg Manusky DC (First Year) Continuity Score: 3.3 out of 20
QB & System: (Years on team and in system) Kirk Cousins (3+ Years & in System) Continuity Score: 20 out of 20
Defensive Scheme: (Years in system) “Base 34” presumably? (First Year) Continuity Score: 0 out of 20
Offensive Line: 3+ year starters: (3) two-year starters: (2) one-year starters: () first year starter or position battle: () Continuity Score: 8.6 out of 10
Defensive Personnel : 3+ year starters: (2) two-year starters: (2) one-year starters: (2) first year starter or position battle: (5) Continuity Score: 5 out of 11
Top Skill Positions: Leading Rusher : Rob Kelley (Position Battle) Leading Receiver: Terrelle Pryor (First Year) Continuity Score: 0 out of 10
Front Office: No GM Currently Continuity Score: 0 out of 9
Analysis:
I don’t get what the Redskins are doing. Why all the drama with Kirk Cousins? Yes, you’ll have to pay him big money- but so what? That’s the way the entire league is headed. Every team will have to pay their QB 20+million a year- it’s only a matter of time. Just get it settled already- all this indecision cannot be good for the team.
If there are reasons why the Redskins don’t want to commit, could it be from underlying tensions between Cousins and Gruden? (Yes, this is baseless speculation on my part, but hey, baseless speculation is all the rage in DC right now.) Gruden is taking over the playcalling this year as McVay has left to coach the Rams. How will this, and the Cousins contact impasse impact the offense? If there really are problems between Cousins and Gruden, it may manifest itself this season.
Another thing we don’t really know about is only the small matter of what defense the team will run. Will it be 3–4 or 4–3, or both? While Jonathan Allen falling to them in the draft couldn’t have been better if they dreamed it, they look like they are going into the season with an NFC-high 5 new starters on defense. A new defense with a new scheme and a new DC means that I wouldn’t count on the Redskins defense to look anything like they did last year. And maybe that’s the point.
Thanks for reading this- I hope you picked up something that will help you this upcoming season. Next up is Part 5, where we tackle the very continuity-filled AFC North. If you haven’t already, here are the links to the first three parts so you can catch up on the NFC West, South, and North. Please follow me on twitter as I tweet out links to all my new Medium posts as soon as they are published, and if you want to share anything with me, I am more than happy to interact with you. All I ask is that you don’t be like this guy.
