Picks and a brief preview for all 30 NBA teams. All lines from FanDuel Sports Book October 24, 2023 at 5:00 AM CST. Last Year: 15/30 Overall 6/8 Locks.
Atlanta 42.5 — Under
Last year: 41–41
The Hawks are settling into their second year of the Trae/Murray backcourt and hoping that they can make things click under Quin Snyder. They have finally moved on from John Collins, but did not manage to get anything for him in return. A lot needs to go right for Atlanta to improve on their performance from last year and they are a sneaky contender for a team that might decide to blow things up if the season gets off to a rocky start.
Atlanta has very little depth in the front court and will be asking for major minutes and consistency from Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu. Size can be found, but moves will need to be made to shore up the big man positions and back up minutes for this team to get back to the play in.
Boston 54.5 Over
Last Year: 57–25
Boston was consistent in the regular season last year both winning the games they should have and playing their best players most nights. After a disappointing post season performance last year I expect them to come into the season hungry, wanting to make a statement, and determined to prove themselves as a contender (not that anyone is doubting them too much, they are the preseason favorite).
Consistent minutes out of Horford and Porzingis will be important and can’t be counted on given their age and injury history receptively, but each of Tatum and Brown can take minutes at the 4 and they have the depth to allow both players to rest during the season without jeopardizing their ability to win night to night.
The Celtics unequivocally improved their roster during the off season with the addition of Jrue Holiday, have made the necessary steps to provide Joe Mazzulla with the coaching support he needs, and have one of the 10 best players in the NBA in Jason Tatum. All the pieces are there.
Brooklyn 37.5 Under
Last Year: 45–37
The post trade Nets showed flashes on different occasions of being a tough and competitive team, but this roster does not have the top level talent or depth at key positions to be competing for a playoff/play-in spot, which they would be doing if they were to hit this over.
Nic Claxton is a really good defensive center but is a non-threat on offense. Spencer Dinwiddie is not a top 20 point guard. In the 2–4 spots there is going to be a crowded battle for minutes behind Mikael Bridges between Dorian Finney -Smith, Cam Johnson, Royce O’Neale, Cam Thomas, Lonnie Walker and (Gulp) Ben Simmons.
This team has the assets from the Kevin Durant trade to get into the mix if their wings can keep them hanging around above .500, but the organization seems ready to start having an eye on the future.
Charlotte 31.5 Under
Last Year: 27–55
Charlotte is adding a number 2 overall pick in the draft and a previous 20 point scorer to their team, and hopes to have full seasons of production from Gordon Heyward and LaMelo Ball next year. In theory it should be pretty easy for these additions to lead to 5 more wins, however you would then be relying on the health of Ball and Heyward and Miles Bridges returning to form after not playing NBA basketball for over a year.
There are too many good teams for the Hornets to be expected to get 30 wins this year.
Chicago 37.5 Over LOCK
Last Year: 40–42
Extensive Bulls preview available here.
Cleveland 50.5 Under
Last Year: 51–31
The Cavs have young players who are all capable of taking important steps forward, but the lack of scoring ability when Allen and Mobley share the floor was exposed in the Cavs round one matchup against the Knicks last season and is something teams will be looking to exploit throughout the year. There are also rumors already swirling about Donovan Mitchell not wanting to be in Cleveland. The addition of Max Straus was not enough to plug the hole in their lineup between their excellent guards and their defensively spectacular big men. I expect the Cavs to finish in the high 40’s for wins, but have them as a slight under.
Dallas 43.5 Under LOCK
Last Year: 38–44
Dallas made some good moves around the fringes of their team this off season. I particularly like the move to bring in Seth Curry, both to provide some veteran stability and some much needed floor spacing shooting off the bench. I have always liked Richaun Holmes as a back up big. But this team has not made any significant enough upgrades to the pieces surrounding Luka to have them contending for a playoff spot in the improved Western Conference. When Dallas traded for Kyrie they gave up their best defender in Dorian Finney-Smith and never found a way to replace him. This team was atrocious on defense after he left, to the point that even their slow pace of play could not mask how bad they were.
Moreover, Kyrie Irving now has a guaranteed long term salary and no longer needs to pretend to be about the team or winning in order to keep the 6 figure game checks coming in. I don’t know what is going to keep Kyrie from contributing to this team, but it is going to be something. Will he be frustrated that the Luka-centric offense will keep him from being able to create? Will the past organizational failures lead to a public dispute with Mark Cuban? Will the state of the world and the Middle East become so devastating that he is not able to focus on basketball? Any of these legitimate concerns, as well as a universe of other possible isues or beefs could be the reason Kyrie is demanding a trade before Valentine’s Day.
Detroit 28.5 Over
Last Year 17–65
I am making this pick more with my heart than with my head, but there are some genuine reasons for optimism in Detroit. Cade Cunningham is actually playing this season, and was playing well over the summer competing against team USA. His health and return to form is the single most important thing for the Pistons and would make this team several wins better than they were last year by itself. They are a young team with lots of players likely to be better this upcoming year just by virtue of being a year older. The team is not tanking for Wemby this year. Their front court depth is a bit of a running joke, but it gives them the ability to withstand injuries and also gives them flexablility in the trade market. Atlanta and Brooklyn have already been mentioned as teams lacking front court depth. Ausar Thompson is a top pick at a position of need.
The Pistons will be a fascinating team to follow this year and should have a bit of a cushion over the worst teams in the East.
Denver 52.5 Over LOCK
Last Year: 53–29
Denver locked up the one seed last year almost two months before the end of the regular season and were able to coast into the playoffs. If the top teams in the conference have improved, as most expect, they should have more competition that will force them to keep winning as the season winds down.
Denver has on of the most significant home court advantages in the NBA, going 34–7 in Denver last regular season. The mountains haven’t gotten any smaller and teams will continue to struggle going into altitude while on road trips.
Bruce Brown was a great player for the Nuggets last season but does not create an unfillable void in his absence. MPJ still has huge leaps he can make on both sides of the ball. Jamal Murray is not going to spend the first half of the season getting back into NBA shape and testing his knee. They also happen have the best player in the world.
Golden State 47.5 Under
Last Year: 44–38
A lot went wrong for the Warriors to finish where they did last year between the chemistry issues resulting from the Draymond punch, the team needing to decide which young players to invest in, their inability to win on the road, and personal issues keeping Andrew Wiggins out for multiple months. But they also got another transcendent year from Steph, an elite defensive season from Draymond in a contract year, and are not a team that can expect major leaps from its core players.
The Warriors should be focused on a post season run rather than winning as many regular season games as they can. I can’t wait to see how Chris Paul is able to fit into this team and the different ways that Steve Kerr will find to use him.
Houston 31.5 Under LOCK
Last Year: 22–60
This is a huge jump in wins for a team that will have a lot to figure out in terms of their rotations and minutes, as well as their future direction as a franchise. Ime Udoka seems like the right coach to instill some discipline and accountability with a team that has basically just been rolling the ball out and going for the last few years, but that is a process that takes time and will produce difficult circumstances as he establishes his identity on this team. There were a lot of speed bumps during the early part of his first season in Boston and I expect similar situations and results with this less talented and bought in roster.
Additions of Fred Vanvleet and Dillion Brooks should make this team better, but the fit of Vanvleet next to Jalen Green defensively is questionable to say the least, and bringing in Dillion Brooks as the guy who fixes a team’s chemistry and attitude issues is genuinely hilarious.
Houston owes its own 2024 draft pick to Oklahoma City unless it is in the top 4, in which case it turns into a second round pick in 2025. I see Houston as a strong contender for the worst record in the league as they do some calculations about the value of those two picks and the return on making a late season push.
Indiana 39.5 Under
Last Year: 35–47
Additions of Obi Toppin and Bruce Brown will help the Pacers add veteran leadership to a talented young backcourt of Tyrees Haliburton and Benedict Mathurin. The Pacers are legitimately 10 deep and have the pieces to try and make a run at a good player who comes available. Haliburton missed significant time last year, but when he played he looked like a future All Star.
This is a slight under for me because I think that Haliburton is still a year away from being the best player on a team that is over .500 for a full year, and because there do seem to be some lingering chemistry issues that I think could make life difficult for Rick Carlisle as he distributes minutes between a lot of deserving players. Miles Turner has been in trade rumors since before the pandemic, Buddy Heild will have to give up shots to make room for younger players and Bruce Brown, TJ McConnell is a rotation NBA player with a lot of guys in front of him.
The Pacers are a consolidation trade away from being a solid playoff contender, but there are a lot of teams that can make better offers if a franchise changing player does come available. A lot of the same arguments that I made in favor of the Bulls could also be made about the Pacers, but I like the Bulls top three players more than Haliburton and whoever the Pacers next two best players are, at least for this season.
LA Clippers 45.5 Over
Last Year 44–38
Even accounting for the Clippers only getting 50 games out of Kawahi and Paul George I still like this Clippers team to take a slight over. They have prepared for time missed by their two best players by building a deep roster that has guys who can fill in at the wing spots that George and Leonard usually occupy.
They made a savvy move last year taking Bones Highland off of Denver’s hands basically for nothing, and he looks to be finding his place in their offense. Despite their struggles in the past few seasons I still consider Ty Lue to be firmly within the second tier of NBA coaches (First Tier: Malone, Spolstra, Kerr Second Tier: Snyder, Nurse, Lue, Jenkins One good season from the Second Tier: Brown, Daigneault, Hammond, Will Hardy).
James Harden is the other piece looming over all of this. If Philly decides to cut bait and Clippers are able to get him for pieces (Morris, Batum, Coffee, Bones?) they would tangibly improve their team in the regular season.
LA Lakers 46.5 Over LOCK
Last Year: 43–39
The Lakers had a disastrous start to last season and still came close to hitting this number down the stretch. They had a long playoff run to figure out the best ways their team played together and AD had his healthiest stretch since the bubble.
Off season additions of Gabe Vincent and Deangelo Russel will shore up the point guard spot which was a position of need last year. Austin Reeves should be able to build on a great season last year and a stint with Team USA. Christian Wood is an interesting addition who could fill in nicely for AD when he rests or misses time.
The Lakers are one of the deepest teams in the league and should be able to hit this over even if their two best players miss considerable stretches. They play great defense and have the size to bully a lot of the teams in the Western Conference.
Memphis 46.5 Over
Last Season: 51–31
I originally had this as a lock before the announcement of the Steven Adams injury, but getting through this season without Adams and missing Brandon Clarke for most of it will be a challenge for the Grizzlies and will require a huge step up in minutes and consistency from JJJ.
I still like this as a slight over based Memphis’ history of performing well when Ja does not play. I think that if they come out of the first 25 games even hanging around the .500 mark they will be in great shape to hit this over. I expect Ja to come back with a vengeance halfway through the season and to run amok reestablishing himself during the doldrums of the mid winter season grind. If Marcus Smart and Dereck Rose can fill in the void of Tyus Jones leaving I like the Grizzlies a lot as a second half team.
Miami 44.5 Under
Last Season: 44–38
Miami just went through a grueling playoff run and lost two key pieces from from their finals team. Butler, Lowrey and Love all are a year older and put even more miles on themselves.
They have proven to themselves that there is no limit to their playoff potential based on their seeding and will therefore not be overly motivated to battle for seeding at the expense of being ready to go in July. Miami is a slight under, but this may have been the most difficult pick on the board for me.
Minnesota 44.5 Over
Last Year: 42–40
The second year after the disastrous Rudy Gobert trade, Minnesota still has a lot of work left to do to figure out the fit between Townes and Gobert. They played the majority of last year without arguably their best player (that argument is probably over now) and are still only being asked to win three more games than they did last year.
Edwards looks ready to take a leap after his starring role on Team USA. Having KAT regularly available throughout the season should help to clear the lane and create space for him. If Edwards can take some of the point guard minutes that are available when Mike Conley sits the Timberwolves will be deep at every position.
The Wolves have been horribly mismanaged over the last few years, but they have not yet started to pay the price that they gave up in future assets to acquire Gobert. Even if things do go badly and they make a trade, they will be doing so with an eye towards continued short term success given the draft capital that is going out the door to Utah.
Milwaukee 53.5 Over
Last Year: 58–24
Milwaukee lost some depth and defensive versatility but they have significantly improved their roster over the team that they had last year. Giannis is going to have more space than he ever has before, and Dame will not be the focal point of opponent’s defensive game plans for the first time in his career. Kris Middleton’s health seems to still be a bit of a question mark, but even if he is only able to match what he gave them last year the Bucks should be in the mid fifties for wins.
New Orleans 44.5 Under
Last Year: 42–40
When the Pelicans had Zion at the beginning of last season they looked like one of the best teams in the west. If I could count on his availability at the same levels that he has shown earlier in his career this would be an easy over, but it seems like Zion just doesn’t have the ability to compete at his highest level for a full NBA season. I would be thrilled to be wrong but I think it is a lot more likely that this team devolves into drama and trade rumors than it is that they finally put it all together for an extended stretch.
Another year on CJ McCollum, an uninspiring showing from Ingram on the world stage this summer and the lack of point guard depth if Zion isn’t the point forward all make this an under for me.
Knicks 45.5 Under
Last Year: 47–35
I got burned on the Knicks under last year as Jalen Brunson emerged as one of the best value players in the NBA and showed that he had as much grit and offensive savvy as any point guard in the league. The Knicks have so much size behind him that they are still able to overpower teams even without Brunson at the 1.
I am taking this under because I think that opposing teams will continue to learn about the ways that they can stifle Brunson with size when he is on offense and exploit him on defense. The rest of the team comes with a lot more question marks. Randle and Barret in particular are guys who I just don’t know what to expect from year over year, and who seem to have issues when things go wrong and the pressure of the New York spotlight ratchets up. It seems like every other year Tibs teams get burned out and underperform, and if last year was a success that would make them due for some infighting and struggle. This team will be solid but there are other teams in the East that I like to finish ahead of them and keep them under 46 wins.
OKC 44.5 Under
Last Year: 40–42
Adding Chet to this young and dynamic offense that lacked rim protection and size should significantly help them improve in areas of need from last season. There aren’t many teams that couldn’t use an over 7 foot player who can knock down threes. Younger players will also continue to develop, but I am going under because I think that to a certain extent most of their young players were already playing to their nearly full potential last year. SGA was already incredible and they only won 40 games last year. I don’t think Chet is a 6 win boost when the league and especially the west got better since the off season as well.
This is still a really young team that will have to show that they can handle a full season of the grind when they are no longer flying under the radar. I like the Thunder to make a small improvement from last year in a tougher conference, but that result still puts them under 45 wins.
Orlando 37.5 Over LOCK
Last Year: 34–48
Orlando is a team that should see substantial development from its two star young players; Franz and Paolo. Both played meaningful minutes in the World Cup for their respective countries and will be looking to build on great seasons last year. The Magic got off to an incredibly slow start last year and then won at a pace that would eclipse this win total for all of 2023.
The Magic add two players from the top half of the first round of the draft. Joe Ingles is not going to make them any worse. This team should be in the mix for the play in tournament this season.
Phoenix 51.5 Under LOCK
Last Year: 45–37
I would have probably liked this under before Phoenix made the trade that sent away Deandre Ayton and brought back Nurkić and Grayson Allen. Then they gave away a cornerstone piece of the team that had won so many games and made the finals in the last three years. I don’t trust Nurkić to be on the floor or to provide the kind of defensive support needed to win more than 50 games.
For Phoenix to hit this over they will have to put a ton of regular season miles on Kevin Durant. When their entire big three plays together they are going to outscore a lot of their opponents, but even in those games there will be times when other teams hit their shots and beat them. Consistent winning requires good defense. Without Ayton a huge amount of that defensive burden is going to fall to Durant and I don’t think Phoenix will want him to expend that effort during the regular season. I think Phoenix will be more than happy to settle into the 4 through 6 range and try to turn it on for the post season.
Philly 47.5 Over
Last Season 54–28
Philly looks like a mess right now, but for all of the drama I do not expect that they will be seven wins worse than they were last year. I think that if James Harden comes back and plays for them that he will do so to the best of his abilities and not tank his performance the way he did when he was trying to push his way out of Houston. I don’t know that, but he is still likely to be a free agent after next year and will need to show the other teams in the league that he is worthy of the big money he wants. The 76ers have a better coach this year than they did last year, and have added guard depth in Pat Bev and Kelly Oubre who can fill in if Harden is unavailable.
Joel Embiid got his MVP that he has been chasing for several seasons and will now be ready to focused on a sustained playoff run, but is still one of the best players in the league. Tyreese Maxey is primed to take the leap to the next level, and Tobias Harris might find some contract year magic. For all of the drama and the noise, it would be an immense organizational failure if this team fell out of the top 5 in the East.
Portland 27.5 Under
Last Year: 33–49
Before Portland shipped Jrue Holiday off to Boston I would have been excited about this number, (my thoughts on the Dame trade are here) but the Boston trade was a future looking move and suggests that there are more of those coming. This backcourt will be fun to watch and I am very interested to see what Ayton looks like on a team where he has more room to operate, but the Blazers are looking to have this be a developing year rather than a contending one. I think that logic is misguided (the best way to learn to win is to try to win) and that they had a core of guys that could have competed right away, but I understand wanting to focus on developing a potential generational player.
Sacramento 44.5 Over LOCK
Last Year: 48–34
Sacramento had a lot of injury luck last year and they won a lot of close games on the back of Clutch Player of the Year De’Aaron Fox that could flip this season. But I think this over under is partly based on their having lost in the first round of the playoffs. This thinking ignores the fact that they lost to the team with the most playoff success in the last decade, that they took them to 7 games, and that Steph Curry had to break the game 7 NBA scoring record to take them out. It is not like some glaring hole in their game was exposed during that series. Domantas Sabonis was also injured during that series.
I think that Sacramento will have a bit of a chip on their shoulder about how little attention is being paid to them after making huge strides last year. I expect Keegan Murray to show that he has significantly improved during the off season and I think this team will continue to gel and get used to playing together in their second full year with their top two players.
San Antonio 28.5 Under
Last Year: 22–60
This isn’t a fun bet because everyone wants Wembanyama to be as good as he has looked in the preseason. Go take him for Rookie of the Year to cheer him on and then take this safe under. I don’t expect Wemby to play enough games for them to hit this over, and I think the rest of the team is among the most limited rosters in the NBA. There will still be a lot for Victor to figure out on the fly.
Toronto 36.5 Over LOCK
Last Year 41–41
The Raptors were one of the most underperforming teams in the NBA last year and are now expected to finish five games lower than they did then. They lost a stalwart player in Fred VanVleet and a great coach, but their core three players (Siakam, Barnes, Anunoby) all should still be ascending.
They are another deep team particularly on the wings and added Grady Dick who should be able to be plugged in and contribute as a shooter right away. This line seems to be factoring in the possibility of a trade that moves one of their big three (probably not Barnes) to a contender as part of a rebuild. I don’t expect that trade to materialize and those three should be able to carry this solid roster to another .500 finish.
Utah 35.5 Under
Last Year: 37–45
Utah started the season 10–3 last year using a 5 out lineup that can increase variability and is hard to guard and adjust to on the fly. Once teams figured out what they were doing the Jazz came back to earth and I think became more of what they really are; a bottom third of the conference team. Utah has the ability to overbid anyone on in the market with draft picks and assets other than Oklahoma City, so they could make a move for a star, but I think this team is looking towards the future and is likely to maintain their pace from last season after the first 13 games.
Washington 24.5 Under
Last Year: 35–47
This team seems poised to make Jordan Poole the centerpiece of their offense. Tyus Jones is a really good point guard and if the goal in Washington is to win games (it’s not) he should be running the show instead of Poole. I don’t plan on watching enough Wizards games this year to find out.
