As the dust settles, takeaways from last week’s election
There were a few surprises and some notable trends.
The day after Labour’s landslide victory, I spoke to a friend of mine. He described witnessing the most extraordinary things. He saw thieves come back to the shops with the goods they had stolen, apologise profusely and offer to pay for the damages. Normally vicious thieves politely helped grannies to cross the street. Gang members embraced their rivals. Meanwhile, Islamist extremist Anjem Choudhary and Tommy Robinson (of the English Defence League) were seen having a cheerful conversation about their favourite coffee at a Starbucks. Even mail carriers and dogs were getting along. Everyone was actually happy! Now, before I go any further, I will concede that this was just an imaginary conversation. Nothing of the sort happened. But it does describe the euphoric feeling that I encountered when Labour last came to power in 1997. It was all about New Labour and Tony Blair and an exciting new dawn. There was so much optimism about how much good they could do. It was the crest of a wave. That certainly hasn’t been the case now. But voter apathy and disenchantment didn’t take away from the drama of the night.
Let’s recap. It’s now been a week since the British electorate went to the polls in what most people saw as a very predictable election. The biggest surprise is that Rishi Sunak called it so early to begin with. It was a baffling decision that was doomed from the very start. It also made it easier to predict Labour’s landslide victory. The challenge was to predict just how well, or badly, the other parties would do. How accurate were my predictions? The only one that I got completely wrong was the SNP, who I thought would manage to hold onto about 25–30 seats. My rationale was that many Scottish voters would feel content with the SNP, safe in the knowledge of a Labour landslide. However, while I didn’t underestimate voter dissatisfaction with the SNP, who have had plenty of internal challenges themselves in the last few years, I still thought their pro-independence message would shine through with a large section of the Scottish electorate. In the end, they barely came away with 9 MPs.
What other trends can we take away from this election? The first is that when Labour win, they win big. Since Harold Wilson’s narrow win in the mid- 70s, every Labour victory has been an annihilation, sometimes of epic proportions. While the Conservatives have a knack for winning close contests, it is clear that when the electorate have had enough of them, they punish them with a vengeance. One of the reasons for such a huge margin of victory can be found in the fact that successful Labour leaders like Tony Blair and, now, Sir Kier Starmer, have tried to be all things to all people, often called the ‘ming vase’ approach. In this way, they’ve been able to court the centre ground without alienating their left-wing base.
However, this doesn’t completely work, and we saw some examples of that here. It’s hard to believe that a party that won 412 seats still managed to lose 6 seats, all of them safe ones. Five were lost to independents, including Jeremy Corbyn, while one seat, Leicester East, was lost to the Tories. Other Labour heavyweights, like Wes Streeting, also nearly lost their seat. This was due to Labour’s approach to the conflict in Gaza. Labour also lost a seat to the Greens. Coupled with a low vote share of just 34 %, this reinforces a lack of enthusiasm for Labour.
But if there was enthusiasm, it was for the removal of the Tories. Labour weren’t the only beneficiaries. The Lib Dems also got an astonishing 72 seats, almost all of them from the Conservatives. And this time they were able to use the First Past the Post system to their advantage. Reform UK and the Greens will no doubt lead the call for Proportional Representation. As I predicted, Reform UK were not able to get more than 5 seats, despite 4 million votes, while the Greens surprised me with an impressive 4 MPs. But if we consider that Reform UK had 14 % of the vote, and the Greens 7 %, yet they only got 1% each of the seats, they clearly have very good reason to feel aggrieved. However, both parties will be happy to be on the board and have a strong voice in Parliament. They have a base they can now build on.
So to conclude, despite appearances, Labour wasn’t the only big winner. Labour might have had the backing of The Sun for the first time since the Blair years and a massive majority. But this was truly an excellent night for the smaller parties. All of them benefitted from the Conservatives’ collapse. Reform UK and the Greens now have the presence they crave. The Lib Dems had their best night in 100 years. However, the news wasn’t all bad for the Conservatives. They survived. The Canada style wipe-out that many feared didn’t happen. It’s still a disaster, but it could have been an apocalypse. It’s hard to see them coming back to power for another 10 years or so. But 121 seats and a position as the official opposition is far better than being left with just 2. Now the election period is over, and the new government has already begun. It’ll be interesting to see what happens next.
