A Week Away from the Deadline — What the Phillies FO Might Be Thinking.
On 7/8/24 Boz wrote a blog about Phillies pitch count and that things are not as they seem. The blog did decently well in terms of reads, but some new people to the blog tried ripping my assessment to shreds on Twitter. They just don’t know #BozKnows ball. I stuck to my guns, and sure enough it’s 7/23/24 and the new buzzwords in Philadelphia are pitch counts and workload.
Boz is here to steady the ship, the Phillies are not as bad as people think they are starting the 2nd half, nor are they as good as everyone thought they were in the 1st half. Baseball is a long season and there will be peaks and valleys. How did we get here and where do we go from here as of 7/23/24, 8 days away from the deadline.
Bullpen:
Coming into the season the Phillies needed a closer. Here is my preseason recommendations blog. I was pretty adamant about getting a closer/high leverage guy.
The Phillies need a closer/high leverage guy. Based on my pitch count math, the Phillies need roughly 800 high leverage pitches if you want to keep the current bullpens workloads close to last year. That is the extra guy high leverage guy I was referring to to start the year.
If you want to blame the current GM for our need to watch pitch counts now, that’s a fair assessment in my opinion. This was 100% foreseeable if you are a baseball guy. I know I give Topper a bunch of crap, but Topper is in charge of winning, and he’s done guy that. This is not on Thompson, he just manages what he is given.
I think the current guys in the pen are dudes, but slightly overworked and need that extra dude come the trade deadline. The thing that you don’t see in pitch counts is the amount of times these guys have to get hot in the bullpen, but may never come in. We don’t have a counter on that, but you have to do your best to keep these guys fresh in October and November. Jose Alvardo is now projected to throw 50% more pitches than 2023, up 5% than he was projected on 7/8/24. SirAnthony is up from 16% to 23% projected usage, up 7% than projected on 7/8/24. Orion Kerkering is up from 14% to 18% projected usage, up 4% than projected on 7/8/24. Jeff Hoffman is up from 13% to 14% projected usage, up 1% than projected on 7/8/24.
So despite the Phillies best efforts to watch their bullpen its not enough, and it’s not enough to win at an above .500 clip.
My hope is Dombrowski gets a dude that he NEEDED TO START the season. He owes it to this bullpen that was excellent for the first half.
Starting Pitching :
Going into the season the Phillies had to know they were going to blow past the starters pitch counts, but the team did what they wanted to and that was get off to a hot start. But that hot start has come at the price of having to watch their staff pitch count so they can be fresh come October and November.
On 7/8/24 here was the Phillies pitch counter/projected pitch counter.
Since then Wheeler and Ranger have both taken brief IL stints. Ranger even skipped the ASG to get more rest.
As of 7/23/24 here is the Phillies pitch counter.
With the rest, Wheeler is now under his prior year pitch usage, Nola is right on pace to hit 100% of his usage from 2023. Despite taking time off Ranger is still slated to be at 42% over his prior year pitch count, he is going to be watch the rest of the season. Sanchez is up from 82% to 84% of his prior year pitch count, he should be on watch the rest of the year.
Phillips has been a pleasant surprise from the Phillies starting staff, and I would ride his arm as much as I can. We need him for probably 10 more starts. We also need Tiajawn Walker to come back and provide some innings. I do not expect a ton from Tiawan other than to eat innings. I have been preaching to pitch Tiawan all year, simply to eat innings from other starters. Will Taiwan or Phillips see playoff time, probably not very meaningful ones, but they play a HUGE role in providing relief for the rest of the staff.
Depending on how confident the Phillies are with those two guys they could forgo trying to add a guy like Fedde in a Lou Bob deal with the CWS. I love Crochett, but he’s kinda in that same pitch count usage situation. I also like Feltner from the Rockies.
Offense :
I have been on the same page as Dombrowski in terms of the Phillies offense, if we are complaining about CF production then major guys are not producing. On March 4th, 2024 I predicted the Phillies would score 5.05 runs per game.
As of 7/23 the Phillies have scored 493 runs, on pace for 799 runs. Falling slightly off pace from what I expected. Where is that lack of production coming from? Even the most casual could guess that LF/CF, as well as 2B. They are not getting even average production out of LF or CF. For any new Bozballers, the >.6 is elite, .55 is league average depending on the positon, and .48 is below league average.
Specifically vs. Lefties. Pache has been decent against lefties abysmal vs. righties, but Rojas and Marsh have been well below anything close to productive.
Having two holes in a lineup is tough, especially when Stott is scuffling and Topper has to keep putting him out there. That’s a lot to try and make up for, and not getting on base for Schwarber at the leadoff spot.
I am not comfortable saying Pache/Marsh is my everyday left fielder, and Rojas is my Centerfielder. Too many unproductive outs with Stott.
Conclusion :
Phillies need the high leverage arm. That is a must. Any OF bat you get has to produce against lefties. A 4–5 starter would be nice.
My ideal guys would be [RP] Mason Miller, [OF/CF] Louis Robert, and [SP] Ryan Feltner. Some other names that are on those teams you could try to package, Kopeck, Fedde, Crochet, Rooker, Doyle.
My wildcard CF is Trout. Bring him home and eat the contract. Probably doesn’t cost you a ton of prospects.
My wildcard SP would be Bauer. No social media clause. He will only cost you money.
My wildcard reliever is Raidel Martínez. Don’t think it’s within the signing period, but he is a guy that will only cost you money, and is putting up video game number once again in Japan. I wanted him in the off season.
