Top 10 Wide Receivers for the 2019–20 NFL Season
Criteria
This list isn’t about the past and comparing people’s legacies, it’s solely about how we project these players to perform this upcoming season.
And these are not fantasy rankings. This list has very little to do with who will have the better raw counting stats by year’s end.
It’s about how effective these players will be compared to their peers after factoring the talent (or lack thereof) and coaching staff (or lack thereof) that they have surrounding them.
1. Tyreek Hill (Kansas City Chiefs)
Hill at #1 might feel like a hot take to some people, but it shouldn’t. It was between he and DeAndre Hopkins for the title of best wide receiver in football last season and Hill put up similar production to Hopkins on nearly 30 less passing targets. He may very well be the best wideout in the NFL as we speak.
His 40.5 inch vertical allowed him to lead the league in contested catch percentage, his technical ability as a route-runner caught up to his insane speed and made him impossible to cover one-on-one, and he’s one of the game’s most elusive players with the ball in his hands after the catch.
He’s close to becoming the complete package as a wide receiver if he hasn’t already. And there’s a very good chance he’s just scratching at the surface of his potential in the Chiefs offense.
For as good as their numbers were, Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill left numerous plays on the field last season and all reports coming out of training camp point to their connection being noticeably more potent.
Another big reason to believe in Tyreek improving his game is that he’s only been a full-time wide receiver for 2 seasons in his entire football life. He primarily played running back in high school and college. And then he split time between playing running back and playing as a Cordarrelle Patterson/Tavon Austin-esque chess piece his rookie season in the NFL.
He also turned just 25 years old in March.
So between picking up on more of the nuances at the wide receiver position and improving his rapport with Mahomes, chances are another leap is coming for Tyreek in 2019.
2. Odell Beckham Jr. (Cleveland Browns)
A man who has quickly established himself as one of the greatest wide receivers to ever play the game of football is finally playing with a quarterback. A quarterback who is very good. This is a big deal. A very big deal.
Despite all of his speed, Beckham rarely had the luxury of consistently threatening defenses down the field because of Eli Manning’s lack of arm strength.
Despite his incredible hands, Beckham rarely had the luxury of coming down with catches in traffic the way Davante Adams does with Aaron Rodgers or the way Michael Thomas does with Drew Brees because Eli Manning lacked the accuracy to fit the ball into tight windows.
And despite his insane leaping abilities, Beckham’s ability to rise above defensive backs was never properly utilized because Manning would routinely throw off-target passes that made him susceptible to taking big hits, rather than getting him the ball where only he could come down with it while still keeping him out of harms way. You know…that thing that good quarterbacks do.
Now Odell has a good quarterback. And while that doesn’t necessarily mean his numbers will make a huge leap, we will most certainly see aspects of his game that we never got the opportunity to see in New York.
He’ll finally get to be the player he’s always wanted to be.
3. DeAndre Hopkins (Houston Texans)
As you may have heard, DeAndre Hopkins was thrown the ball 163 times and never dropped a single pass. DeAndre was 1 of only 3 players to gain 1,500 yards receiving while catching at least 70% of his passes since catch percentage numbers started being tracked in 1992.
DeAndre was incredible last season and there’s a very good chance he’ll be in an even better situation to flourish this season.
Deshaun Watson should be improved as a quarterback not only because that’s typically young quarterbacks do at this stage in their career, but also because he won’t have that same mental block of worrying about his ACL every time he steps on the field. He’ll be more confident in his game, more confident in his body, more confident in his improved offensive line and DeAndre will reap the benefits.
Not only will DeAndre benefit from Deshaun making progress, but hopefully he’ll be able to play a full season next to Will Fuller V as he returns from ACL surgery. And he’ll also have a full season playing with Keke Coutee who emerged as a reliable target in the slot and is said to have made great strides this offseason.
Nuk is going to be surrounded by the best talent he’s ever had in his career by far and he’ll be as effective as ever as a result.
4. Antonio Brown (Oakland Raiders)
Antonio Brown turned just 31 years old this offseason and is fresh off leading the NFL in receiving touchdowns despite sitting out the final game of the season.
Yet for some reason, a surprising number of people are already prepared to bury this man’s career.
Randy Moss broke the touchdown record at age 30. Marvin Harrison put up 1,700 yards at age 30. Jerry Rice put up 1,800 yards at age 33. Cris Carter was first team All-Pro at age 34. Terrell Owens put up 15 touchdowns at age 34.
And no, none of those guys had Derek Carr throwing to them. But Derek Carr quietly had a decent season last year when you consider he threw for 4,000 yards and posted a presentable passer rating of 93.9 despite playing behind one of the league’s worst pass blocking units while throwing to a wide receiving corps led by a now-retired 33-year-old Jordy Nelson.
The bottom line is this: Derek Carr is good enough to get the ball in Antonio Brown’s hands. It’s not that hard. He’s open 99% of the time and even when he isn’t open he’s pretty damn good at coming down with contested catches.
When you are a legendarily skilled wide receiver like Antonio Brown is, your game almost always ages well into your mid-thirties.
So as long as Antonio Brown has his health, he’s going to remain a premier player in this league.
5. Julio Jones (Atlanta Falcons)
I’ve gotten my fair share of jokes off about Julio Jones and his distaste for reaching the end zone. And him failing to register a score until week 9 when the Falcons were all but mathematically eliminated from the playoffs only made matters worse. This is a trend with Julio that makes me hesitant to regard him as highly as other people tend to.
With that being said, if Julio Jones were to retire today, he’d probably be one of the 10 greatest wide receivers to ever play the game. He’s that phenomenal at everything else besides scoring touchdowns.
And even though it feels like he’s been in the league forever because of how much he’s accomplished, he only turned 30 last February. So while he might not have the same burst as a 24 year old Julio, the freakish athleticism he has left combined with all of the technical ability he’s amassed over time is more than enough for him to remain an elite threat.
He’ll also be the beneficiary of Matt Ryan playing behind an improved offensive line along with Calvin Ridley and Austin Hooper taking leaps and demanding more attention from opposing defenses.
There’s no reason to expect anything other than the same level of play we’re used to getting from Julio Jones.
6. Davante Adams (Green Bay Packers)
This won’t be the first time someone’s raised this point, but Aaron Rodgers has made Davante Adams underrated. It’s a similar plague that Jordy Nelson suffered throughout his career.
Adams is the only player in the NFL to have double digit touchdowns in each of the last three seasons. The only person who even has two double digit touchdown seasons over that same timespan is Antonio Brown. And last season he finally eclipsed the 1,000 yard mark, finishing 4th in receiving yards per game.
If we’re going to give Aaron Rodgers a pass and say he has struggled because of the unimaginative play-calling from Mike McCarthy, then Davante Adams suffered as well.
One of the widespread criticisms of McCarthy’s playbook is it did very little to scheme receivers open and forced them to have to beat their individual coverage at uncommon rates. So Adams no longer having to play in that system should be huge for him too.
If Adams can have the luxury of getting some easy production out of designed plays the way Tyreek Hill does with Andy Reid or Michael Thomas does with Sean Payton, you can expect him to improve upon what was already borderline elite production last season.
7. Mike Evans (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
Mike Evans was one of the most efficient wide receivers in football last season, finishing 3rd in receiving yards despite only being targeted the 12th most in the league.
And save for the little 3 or 4 week mirage that was Fitzmagic, Evans was producing at an elite level with below average quarterback play.
This season he’ll be without DeSean Jackson whose speed allowed Mike Evans to see more single coverage outside, but that can be negated if O.J. Howard and Chris Godwin continue to improve and demand that defenses account for them as well.
Also now that Bruce Arians is in the fold, it is reasonable to expect that Jameis Winston will be playing some of the best football of his career. If Winston can improve his accuracy and decision-making, Evans should be able to increase his efficiency as a possession receiver after only coming down with 55% of his targets for his career.
8. Michael Thomas (New Orleans Saints)
He is primarily just a possession receiver, racking up a yards per catch average that is on par with a lot of tight ends. But he does what the Saints offense asks him to do at a very high level.
Catching 85% of your targets while going for 1,405 yards on the season is pretty bonkers no matter the circumstances. And Thomas did it with Alvin Kamara as the only other viable receiving threat on the field for much of the season.
This year he’ll have the luxury of playing next to Jared Cook, hopefully a healthier Ted Ginn Jr., along with what should be an improved Tre’Quan Smith. And while Drew Brees saw a decline towards the end of the season, Thomas could actually end up benefiting in the end as Brees may look to rely upon him even more for easy short and intermediate completions.
Thomas was only 11th in in passing targets last season, so it is conceivable that he could see another bump in production and improve upon what has been a very good career through his first 3 seasons.
9. Adam Thielen (Minnesota Vikings)
For a moment last year it felt like Adam Thielen was going to break the single season receiving yards record. Then the Vikings offense began to regress as a whole and Thielen “only” ended up with 1,373 yards on the season along with 9 touchdowns.
The circumstances surrounding Thielen heading into this year shouldn’t be much different than they were last season. He’ll still have Stefon Diggs opposite of him ensuring that he’ll only receive but so much attention from opposing defenses. And he’ll still have Kirk Cousins providing league average play from quarterback.
The Vikings promoted Kevin Stefanski to offensive coordinator, a man who climbed all the way up from being Minnesota’s assistant to the head coach back in 2006. So maybe he has some new ideas and schemes that could benefit the offense as a whole. But for now he’s a virtual unknown at best.
And while Adam Thielen isn’t necessarily long in the tooth, he came into the league at age 24 and is turning 29 in a couple weeks. So what we’ve seen from Thielen is probably all we’re going to get.
But that’s more than good enough.
He’s one of the league’s best route runners and has some of the league’s best hands. And he’s produced at a high level over the past 2 seasons despite average quarterback play.
The Vikings would happily accept more of the same from Adam Thielen.
10. T.Y. Hilton (Indianapolis Colts)
Hilton is another receiver who gets underrated because of all of the credit people give his quarterback. But despite Andrew Luck being absent for significant stretches of his career, T.Y. Hilton’s production has remained steady from season to season.
He’s one of the elite deep threats in football averaging at least 15.9 yards per catch in 6 out of 7 seasons of his career. And he’s done it all while playing with virtually no other threats on the field to punish defenses for double teaming him.
This year he’ll be playing with the best supporting cast he’s ever had with Eric Ebron emerging as one of the game’s best tight ends, Jack Doyle returning from injured reserve, and the Colts acquiring Devin Funchess and Parris Campbell in the offseason.
He’ll be productive as he’s ever been.
Honorable Mentions
A.J. Green (Cincinnati Bengals)
Green is expected to miss multiple regular season games this year due to an ankle injury so it’s about as awful of a start as you could imagine for him after already missing 13 games over the past 3 seasons.
But when A.J. is on the field, he’s provided Hall of Fame level production throughout his career. And when he finally returns this year he’ll be paired up with a dangerous threat opposite of him in Tyler Boyd who proved that he could be productive even without Green commanding the defense’s attention.
The Bengals will also hope to field a more creative offense after being one of the many teams to hire an unqualified coach solely based off their connection to Sean McVay.
Only time will tell how Zac Taylor will pan out as a head coach, but if he can successfully implement some of McVay’s offensive principles, then life should be easier on Andy Dalton and A.J. Green will produce more consistently as a result.
Tyler Lockett (Seattle Seahawks)
Lockett was the most efficient receiver in the NFL by a mile last season, finishing with 965 receiving yards and 10 receiving touchdowns on 13.8 yards per target.
Since target numbers started being tracked in 1992, Lockett finished with the most yards per target of any player to gain at least 800 receiving yards and became just the third wide receiver to score double digit touchdowns on 70 targets or less.
Now that Doug Baldwin is retired and the receivers behind him on the depth chart are fairly inexperienced, Lockett’s volume in targets should shoot up significantly. It’ll be hard for him to duplicate the same efficiency he showed last season, but don’t be surprised if he starts creeping into the top 10 WR conversation after a full year of being the centerpiece in Seattle’s passing game.
Juju Smith-Schuster (Pittsburgh Steelers)
What is most promising about Juju Smith-Schuster isn’t what he accomplished last season — although 1,426 yards and 7 touchdowns is nothing to sneeze at — but what Juju did during his rookie season.
During the 2 games Antonio Brown missed in 2017, Juju went for 218 yards and 2 touchdowns while catching 88% of his targets. In his one game without Antonio Brown in 2018 he only went for 37 yards, but scored the Steelers only touchdown ultimately giving them the edge over the Bengals.
Not having one of the greatest wide receivers of all-time opposite of you will most certainly make your job harder. But Juju has the work ethic and athletic profile it takes to be a good number one wide receiver.
He’s a pretty polished route runner for a 22 year old and does a great job at finding the soft spots in a zone defense. He also has great ball skills, great body-control and despite his 4.54 40-time at the combine, he plays much faster in pads, allowing him to rack up yards after the catch better than most.
On The Rise
D.J. Moore (Carolina Panthers)
Everyone knew D.J. Moore was a menace with the ball in his hands coming out of Maryland. And all it took was one season for him to establish himself as the NFL’s YAC king, leading all wide receivers in yards after contact with 273 last year. The next closest receiver was Golden Tate with 252 yards after contact and Tate was targeted 31 more times than Moore.
Not only is D.J. Moore elite after the catch, but he displayed incredible ball skills in college and showed flashes of it as his playing time increased in the pros.
With the Panthers moving on from Devin Funchess, Moore will be in line to receive a high volume of targets. He’ll also benefit from playing with what should be a healthier Cam Newton as Cam’s shoulder issues began to flare up around the same time Moore began getting significant playing time.
Moore already has the elite skills of being able to come down with tough 50/50 balls and making defenders miss after the catch. If he can become a polished route runner he has the potential to be one of the best wide receivers in the league.
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