Grading the Summer of 2024’s Biggest Football Transfers (So Far) Pt 3
Another striker arrives at Manchester United, rivals City reorganize their furniture and Milan add a Euros winner.
As the Champions League qualifiers continue and the preseason Super Cups loom on the horizon, the clock is ticking on Europe’s clubs getting their transfers across the line before the August 30th deadline for most top leagues. So, let’s dive into my third batch of transfer grades this summer.
Check out Part 1 (Mbappé, Palhinha + More) and Part 2 (Luiz, Olise, Thuram)!
Joshua Zirkzee — Bologna to Manchester United— €42.5 M
Bologna, first and foremost, deserve a lot of credit. Zirkzee was a highly-rated youngster who had a great deal of success in the 2021–22 season at Anderlecht, but an investment of nearly €30M for a team with three consecutive finishes of 12th or lower in Serie A was a big roll of the dice in August of 2022. Last season, that gamble paid off as the Dutch forward started to realize his talent with Bologna surging to a Champions League place. The only disappointment, then, is that Bologna couldn’t hold Zirkzee through their maiden Champions League campaign and look for bigger value next summer. Even then, they still turned a solid profit from the initial investment (never mind the extra revenue his play helped bring to the club via their high finish and UCL berth) so Bologna get a B+ grade.
For Manchester United, the question becomes how Erik ten Hag will use him alongside Rasmus Højlund. Zirkzee spent most of last season playing centrally in a 4–3–3, and there’s obviously no place for both him and the young Dane to co-exist in a similar set-up at United. Because of his chance creation abilities and other connective skills, there’s a potential role for Zirkzee as a second striker, but Bruno Fernandes (though not getting any younger) occupies many of those spaces in United’s current system. Thus, the logical answer — at least for now — is that only one of the two young forwards will play at a time. In a practical sense, there’s nothing wrong with that as United will have lots of games and neither option is fully developed as a top-end number 9 as of yet, but an in-and-out role likely won’t help each player’s consistency either. ten Hag, despite his extension, also couldn’t be much closer to the brink of being sacked. It all adds up to create a hostile environment for Zirkzee to enter into and, from the player’s perspective, makes the move a little bit puzzling. Højlund, too, should feel let down as his strong close to last season may well be forgotten with a shiny new attacking option in town.
If ten Hag finds a way to integrate both players (together or apart) and keep both in form, United could have a huge bargain on their hands, but the fit doesn’t make perfect sense in my mind as of right now. I think Zirkzee and United would’ve both been better off if he spent another season in Italy and continued to develop with a guaranteed primary role — even if the result was him arriving for a bigger fee and amidst more competition next summer. Great players can sometimes shine in adverse situations, but Zirkzee is young and may not be ready for such a challenge coming at the same time he’s trying to adapt to a whole new country, league, culture and club. The player is worthy of a high grade and the price is solid if his form continues, but the situation sours this one to a B- for United.
Sávio — Troyes to Manchester City — €25 M
I’m not sure if it’s really fair to call this a ‘transfer’ in the traditional sense as the Brazilian was always going to end up at City if he was able to reach his potential. That said, it seems like good business for all involved. Now a second division club, Troyes get an A+ for a profit of nearly €20M (mostly for success Sávio had at a different CFG club). While, Pep adds a talented player that CFG’s system has seemingly prepared for the big time at a price that earns City an A. In the process of developing the Brazilian, a third CFG club also qualified for next season’s Champions League — a positive but unexpected outcome which means 3 umbrella clubs have come out well.
The question is probably whether this deal is fair in the context of the market (Transfermarkt says no though their €50M valuation seems steep). As it relates specifically to Sávio’s case, I don’t have a huge problem with any price City paid. He cost the French side just €6.5M when he arrived from Atlético Mineiro, and Man City obviously could have afforded that without breaking FFP. Thus, no harm, no foul. Where there could be harm is with the precedent the deal could set. If clubs can use the funds of an associated party to take stabs on young players and only foot a partial bill when they materialize into something great, that’s obviously problematic as it’s a clear circumvention of FFP rules. In any case, City run a pretty tight ship these days; so, I imagine someone was brought in to put a number on the Brazilian’s fair market value before the deal was done. €50M seems too much, €25M is perhaps too little, but it’s nothing egregious either way with the player set to help refresh City’s squad with some youthful energy.
Quick Hits
Álvaro Morata (Atlético de Madrid [B] to Milan [B], €13 M):
Like any other time Morata switches clubs, this transfer isn’t the sexiest, but the fit with I Rossoneri is obvious. While the newly crowned European champion isn’t a true like-for-like swap with the departing Olivier Giroud, Morata carries many of the same qualities that the Frenchmen did to San Siro over the last few years. From a leadership perspective, he builds on the maturity that Zlatan Ibrahimović and then Giroud brought to this young team— with it coming as no great surprise that the mercurial Swede was heavily involved in bringing Morata onboard. On the field, the Spaniard should provide good value as well. He’ll score some goals, link up the play well and provide Milan an important change of pace from Tammy Abraham or whatever other forward they recruit to be the primary scoring threat. Morata’s age (32 in October) means this could well be a longer-term investment than Giroud (35) or Ibrahimović (38) was, but he still shouldn’t be seen as Rafael Leão’s long-term partner with a further signing needed to maximize this one’s impact. Atléti, more or less, come out even as Morata arrived for €35M from Chelsea and generated €20M in loan fees from Juve.
Amadou Onana (Everton [A-] to Aston Villa [A-], €59 M):
I lightly suggested when grading Douglas Luiz’s move to Juventus that Villa would struggle to replace him with the money they got, but they acted quickly and secured a suitable replacement at a similar price point. I’m not sure Onana (4 GC in ‘23–24) will ever provide the goal contributions that Luiz did (20), but he’s a better defensive player and Unai Emery likely accepts that trade off — knowing that Onana’s scoring stats may trend upwards in Villa’s talented team. Though best known for his physical gifts (strength, speed, stamina) and his footballing brain, Onana is also a handy player with the ball at his feet. He may not glide through the opposing defense every time, but he can on occasion and that release of pressure should also be of use to Villa. Given amortization allows them to net significant money in the short term by swapping Luiz for the equally gifted Onana, I like the exchange. In the context of a stronger team, I think he likely winds up an even better player long-term than Luiz was. For Everton, sales of this size are always useful, and they have to believe they can find a suitable (albeit less talented) replacement with part of this profit (€24M) while the rest goes towards their continued quest for financial stability.
Serhou Guirassy (Stuttgart [C+] to Borussia Dortmund [B+], €18 M):
For sellers Stuttgart, I generally would love the idea of flipping a player off of one standout season at age 27 for 100% profit. However, I have some serious doubts about the specifics here. For starters, Stuttgart will play in the Champions League this season. With that in mind, why not hold onto Guirassy knowing the €9M you bank in this deal is pennies compared to what could come in next summer? Add in the fact they’ve already spent €21M on a 26-year old replacement (Ermedin Demirović), and I’m just not too sure about the overall calculus that led to them selling the Guinean. For Dortmund, the gamble is probably worthwhile given the price. Unless he shines this season and they move him again next summer, the resale value likely won’t be huge given he’ll be 29 in March, but he doesn’t need to be re-sold to justify such a low price tag. As neither Donyell Malen nor Karim Adeyemi have fully kicked on and Niclas Füllkrug and Sébastien Haller are (respectfully) second-choice options for a true title contender, Guirassy is unique in his ability to, perhaps, give Dortmund a top-end scorer that can produce game in and game out. I like the gamble, but I’m also cognizant of the fact that virtually everything I’ve said about Guirassy could’ve been said about Füllkrug and Haller when they arrived at Dortmund after standout seasons at Ajax and Werder Bremen.
