If we smash the golf statistics up against the Betfair Exchange odds, which golfers jump out as being worth backing…?
Edit: Now updated with results from the US Open (18th June 2024)
My 2024 Majors betting record
The Masters 2024–12.5% loss
PGA Championship 2024–151% profit
U.S. Open 2024–89% profit
The Open Championship 2024–152% profit
The Approach
- Choose a set of golf metrics which are typically a good fit for this course/event
- Weight them, based on importance, and generate a weighted average rating for each golfer (on a 0 to 5 scale)
- Source Betfair Exchange odds (win market) for each golfer
- Rank them by rating & odds
- Identify golfers whose odds look long, relative to their weighted average rating
Limitations:
(i) This analysis covers only golfers who compete on the PGA Tour, so players who play on the LIV tour or solely on the European Tour aren’t considered in this analysis. In terms of materiality, there are only 2 LIV golfers (DeChambeau & Koepka) in the top 10 on the Betfair Exchange. Not ideal, but I can live with it.
(ii) I aim to only highlight where a golfer’s rank based on Betfair Exchange odds is materially different from his rank based on how he has performed in 2023 & 2024, on a weighted basis, across the key metrics. As you move into the elite end (e.g. top 20) a difference in rank of 1 position will be a lot more meaningful than it would be at the other end of the scale (e.g. the rank outsiders at 999/1).
Which player metrics are most important for this event?
I chose these primarily based on course/event-specific insight from various blogs & podcasts.
3 — Strokes Gained: T2G
3 — Strokes Gained: Approach
2 — Driving Distance All Drives
2 — Greens in Regulation %
2 — Distance from edge of Fairway
2 — Approach (175–200 yards)
2 — Strokes Gained: Putting
2 — Approach Putt Performance (lag putting)
2 — Scrambling
1 — Good Drive %
1 — Strokes Gained: Around the Green
1 — Par 4 Performance
1 — Bogey Avoidance
1 — Holing Out
1 — Three-Putt Avoidance
Which golfers does this put on our radar?
Figure 1: Who appears to be value? (max odds 299/1)
Figure 2: How do the favourites compare?
Based on this data, who would I back?
Scottie Scheffler is the top player in my model and, at somewhere between 3/1 and 7/2, he alone represents a win probability of ~23%. As good as he is — given the high variance nature of this course — I’d rather spread my risk and instead back the 4 golfers below each-way (covering a win probability of 14%) and then sprinkle a range of other top 20 / top 30
Each-way
Xander Schauffele @ 9/1 (10 places) — 3pt [Place: +1.2pts]
Ludvig Aberg @ 20/1 (10 places) * with Bet365 25% boost * — 2pt [Loss: -2pts]
Hideki Matsuyama @ 40/1 (8 places) — 2pt [Place: +7pts]
Russell Henley @ 60/1 (10 places) — 1pt [Place: +5.5 pts]
Top 20
Corey Conners @ 11/4 [Win: +2.75 pts]
Si Woo Kim @ 10/3 [Loss: -1pt]
Aaron Rai @ 5/1 [Place: +5 pts]
Top 30
Alex Noren @ 9/5 [Loss: -1pt]
Brian Harman @ 9/5 [Win: +1.8 pts]
Victor Perez @ 3/1 [Loss: -1pt]
Lucas Glover @ 13/5 [Loss: -1pt]
Tom Hoge @ 13/5 [Loss: -1pt]
Sung Kang @ 20/1 [Loss: -1pt]
Staking plan: For the purposes of tracking whether these tips are profitable I’ll suggest a simple staking plan of 1pt for each “top X” bet. That’s a total of 17pts (8pts on e/w, 9 pts on top 20/30). Let’s see how it pans out…
BETTING RESULTS UPDATE: Overall, based on the staking plan above, the profit was 15.25pts on a 17pts outlay — which equates to a return on investment of 89%. Hope you got on…
