Most Improved Player Projections — 2022–23

Last year, we did a mini-series on the ever-fascinating, ever-evolving (or devolving) criteria of the Most Improved Player Award.

• Part 1 — The history of the award, and what it means for betting/projecting today.
• Part 2— Published in November, we examined Ja Morant’s unique case for winning, which he eventually did.
• Part 3 — Outlined our most likely bets for winning, outside of Morant. It felt like a particularly busy grouping with Dejounte Murray finishing 2nd, and Darius Garland 3rd. We also mentioned Herro, Bridges, and Jordan Poole — the latter of whom I think it is quite stunning that he didn’t receive further recognition.

Anyway, it felt good to have some level of success guessing at who may be at least in the top three, and so we wanted to run it back. Below is the current long list of candidates, all the way down to an absolutely beffuddling group at +8000. As a quick side tangent — whatever you think of Markelle Fultz, how could he possibly be listed to 1x MVP, borderline 3x MVP James Harden. What improvements could Harden make? What precedent is there for an award servicing as a Comeback Player of the Year type of trophy? And what did Harden “come back” from? I digress.

2023 MIP Odds

• Tyrese Haliburton +800
• Anthony Edwards +900
• Tyrese Maxey +1000
• Lauri Markkanen +1200
• Zion Williamson +1400
• Jalen Brunson +2500
• Anfernee Simons +2500
• Keldon Johnson +2800
• Devin Vassell +2800
• Cade Cunningham +3300
• Desmond Bane +3300
• Christian Wood +3300
• RJ Barrett +3300
• Jordan Poole +4000
• Jalen Green +4000
• Alperen Sengun +4000
• Michael Porter, Jr. +4000
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander +4000
• Scottie Barnes +5000
• Ben Simmons +5000
• De’Aaron Fox +5000
• James Wiseman +5000
• O.G. Anunoby +5000
• Collin Sexton +5000
• Evan Mobley +5000
• Josh Giddey +5000
• Immanuel Quickley +5000
• Saddiq Bey +5000
• Brandon Clarke +5000
• Jarrett Allen +5000
• Kevin Porter, Jr. +5000
• Dejounte Murray +5000
• Cole Anthony +5000
• Wendell Carter, Jr. +5000
• Patrick Williams +6000
• Obi Toppin +6000
• Herb Jones +6000
• LaMelo Ball +7000
• DeAndre Ayton +7000
• Robert Williams +7000
• Darius Garland +8000
• Mikal Bridges +8000
• Miles Bridges +8000
• Victor Oladipo +8000
• Markelle Fultz +8000
• James Harden +8000
• Julius Randle +8000
• Malachi Flynn +8000
• Talen Horton-Tucker +8000
• Derrick Rose +8000
• Onyeka Okongwu +8000
• De’Andre Hunter +8000

Last year, there were a good handful of players I really liked to bet on, set to have big leaps. This year, it feels like many of those young players include last years impressive draft class of top picks. There is hardly a precedent for blue chip lottery picks who had outstanding rookie years winning in their second season, and thus it feels silly to be on any of them. Although as noted — Morant broke precedent last year with a Second Team All-NBA appearance, so what do we really know?

If I’m looking at these odds — again — I’m truly stunned by the equivalency of some of them. The only recent takeaway I can offer is that it feels as though the bar has been moved to borderline All-NBA/All-Star level season to qualify. Yet Markannen and Haliburton have shot up the recent odds, due to hot starts.

Let me remove a few based on recent improvements that I think overshot these players chances of improving enough within this season to win:

• Poole
• Garland
• Bane
• Brunson
• Jarrett Allen
• Dejounte Murray
• Zion (of whom I think would need to be in MVP conversations to contend)

And now let’s discuss bets:

Anthony Edwards (+900)

Given Morant’s win last year, if the T-Wolves land into a top 6-seed off the back of Edwards and an All-Star season, he could very much be in the mix, even as a player who’s shown zero reason to doubt his ability.

Tyrese Maxey (+1000)

An obvious pick, and currently at not great odds. Especially next to Harden. I’m rooting for Maxey, and think he is great, but I’m worried expectations have been too high for him in some backwards way heading into the season, for him to be considered improved enough.

Keldon Johnson (+2800) and Devin Vassell (+2800)

Although the Spurs have come out to a roiling start in the midst of what should be a tanking season, the roadmap of Johnson and Vassell winning is simulatenously intriguing and dispiriting. Players who are typically also on teams who exceed expectations, and end up in a decent spot in the standings. Even with this start, it’s hard seeing the Spurs get to the play-in.

Anfernee Simons (+2500)

Regardless of my shorting of my long profitable Blazers stock this year, there is a definite roadmap to Simons being in the MIP conversation. For starters, he simply has to fill the shoes of CJ McCollum, who won the award next to Lillard in 2016. If the Blazers do surprise people and end up in the play-in in part due to Simons making a jump, he can very much get there. Although he has been highly touted as a young player teeming with potential amongst NBA nerds, his status around the league is still relatively conspicuous.

McCollum was a well known player drafted 10th overall, who had a strong rookie season. Simons was drafted 24th, out of IMG Academy in Florida (and the first player to enter the draft from high school since the rule changes in 2005). Simons had buzz for MIP last year, and did jump up from 8 PPG to 17 PPG. He is currently averaging 19 PPG a few games into the season. However, the buzz was low, and if he can take a larger responsibility on a decent team, I don’t think last season will cannibalize his chances this year, unlike the list mentioned above.

De’Aaron Fox (+5000)

If Fox were to make a leap back into his once-promised All-Star/All-NBA trajectory, I very much think he could garner votes, off the backs of a sexy Kings team picked by many to exceed expectations this year.

OG Anunoby (+5000)

What am I here for, if not to show love to my baby boy? OG has not shown too much improvement from last year offensively, but continues to show out as an elite defensive stopper. More important than this, is OG entering perennial All-defensive conversations and status, of which he very much deserves. If he can do that, while upping his volume and efficiency on scoring, he could certainly be in the mix. Especially due to the fact that the Raps have been the apple of many NBA nerds’ eyes this offseason. Though it’s been a slow start, I believe in OG long term. Perhaps I’m writing this next year. Or better yet, he loses, but shows enough improvement to take himself out of the race for next year.

De’Andre Hunter (+8000)

Stylistically very similar to OG, the idea of what Hunter can be is far greater than what he has shown us in his now established NBA career. I have written in numerous spots that I am high on the Hawks, and he has a chance to significantly raise their ceiling if he puts a stretch of games together. I think this is a good bet odds wise, but it is a longshot for a reason.

RJ Barrett (+3300)

Once again stylistically similar to the previous two 3 and D predators so highly coveted in today’s NBA, I think RJ’s short term ceiling is much higher than both OG and Hunter. His linear trajectory has already hurt him. I think his lottery status, plus being picked behind Zion and Morant, hurts him as well. If he jumps up into a sneaky All-Star pick, and works well in tandem with Brunson, the Knicks buzz could really help Barrett make some noise individually. I still believe in what Barrett can become, even if he is a late bloomer (in NBA superstar terms). Like OG and Hunter, he has the physical tools to make noise in All-D, and that can help boost his chances here.

Wendell Carter, Jr. (+5000)

Like the Kings and Raps, the Magic are a sexy pick this year to be good. If Wendell can be a primary reason for that next to Paolo, he can very much be in Most Improved Conversations. It’s tougher than ever for younger playes in the East to be in All-Star talks, butyou never know.

Patrick Williams +6000

After only playing 17 games last season due to injury, Williams is a key cog for any long term hopes the Bulls have of not needing to reset again in the years to come. There is a bizarre but justified angst in the air surrounding Chicago, in the wake of the Vucevic trade. I still like Williams, and don’t think he’s played enough for us to have too much of an opinion on him. His talent could be glaringly obvious after this year, or he may show enough flashes this year that we are running him back as a Most Improved candidate next fall.

Robert Williams +7000

If Timelord bounces back and gets some DPoY buzz, anchoring the rollicking Celtics to a top-2 seed, he can very much win MIP. He has that much potential. We’ve seen this sort of thing before — Rob Will could lose DPoY, and as a makeup for that, voters could throw him a bone in the form of MIP. He’s one of my favourite picks, especially at +7000.

At this point this is a lot of picks, but unfortunately the award just is that unpredictable. I do also like Wood (a lot), and Wiseman and Achiuwa as long shots. I’m sure it is clear to you that like Coach of the Year, this pick is very much based off both team and individual expectations. I do think sophomores are unwise bets, but if Mobley or someone were to take a monumental leap to top 10 status in the way Doncic did in his sophomore season, we could see precedent broken once again. Sprinkling in a few bucks amongst these players, all I’m hoping for is to once again have mentioned the few players in discussion by the end of the season.