NBA 2021-22 Eastern Conference Over/Under Preview

Co-written by Isaac O’Neill and Chris Howson-Jan

• You can find the link to last year’s Over/Under results here.
• You can find the link to the West here.

• Win totals from last season are based on their adjusted win totals from the shortened season. ‘Adjusted wins’ will be used to refer to the equivalent number of wins in an 82-game season, based on win percentage.
• Even as we return to an 82 game schedule, it’s a little precarious to go about over/unders in the exact same regard.

Eastern Conference

• Locks:
• Isaac: Hawks (Over), Knicks (Over)
• Chris: Bucks (Over), Pacers (Over)
• Discrepancies: Bucks, Pacers, Knicks,

1. Brooklyn Nets — 56.5

• 20/21 adjusted wins: 55 (Over)
• Isaac: Over / Chris: Over

Chris: It goes without saying that there are a lot of questions surrounding the Nets’ season, and almost all of them begin and end with Kyrie Irving. With his playing status still in flux at present, I’m staying conservative operating under the assumption that he won’t play a game for Brooklyn this season — and still, I take the over. Much was made of how little the Nets’ three stars saw the court together last season, but I’m focused on one: James Harden. When Harden played last season, the Nets were 29–7, equivalent to a 66-win pace, including a 21–2 stretch over his final 23 games. Even without Kyrie, the Nets still have two of the ten best players in the NBA; bet against them at your peril.

2. Milwaukee Bucks — Projected Wins: 54.5

• 20/21 adjusted wins: 52 (Under)
• Isaac: Under / Chris: Over

Chris: It’s not hard to see a championship hangover scenario for Milwaukee, especially with the loss of PJ Tucker, but I’m not counting them out. While the Lakers were deeply disappointing last year, there are more examples of strong title defences than weak ones in recent history. The Raptors lost Kawhi Leonard and finished with more adjusted wins than the year before; after winning 57 adjusted games en route to their first title, the Heat won 66 in 2012–13. And of course, we know what the Warriors did the year after their 2015 title. The Bucks won 60+ adjusted games in both the 2018–19 and 2019–20 seasons, and having the Nets to contend with makes the first seed worth fighting for.

3. Philadelphia 76ers — Projected Wins: 50.5

• 20/21 adjusted wins: 56 (Over)
• Isaac: Under / Chris: Under

Isaac: It’s unwise to pick the over on teams with situations as volatile as Philly’s. If the Simmons fiasco is resolved, 50 wins is a fairly safe bet. It’s also safe to assume Embiid will miss his regular slew of games. If that happens, the Sixers roster is not equipped to get by without either of their All-NBA players.

4. Miami Heat — Projected Wins: 48.5

• 20/21 adjusted wins: 46 (Under)
• Isaac: Under / Chris: Under

Isaac: I’m spinning the Lowry trade as a positive for Raptors fans; a big market like Miami is discovering how ridiculously good Kyle Lowry is only makes his Hall of Fame trajectory that much more likely. Bam didn’t quite take the leap some expected last year after his bubble playoffs, but I expect him to develop linearly into a 2nd Team All-NBA level guy (whether he actually gets there, given the Jokic-Embiid situation and glut of unbelievable forwards, is a different question). As good as this team is, their age and priorities don’t necessarily align with regular season wins. I like the under, but I think this projection will be close.

5. Boston Celtics — Projected Wins: 46.5

• 20/21 adjusted wins: 41 (under)
• Isaac: Over / Chris: Over

Chris: It’s easy to see a world in which the Celtics improve by 10+ adjusted wins after they were one of the more COVID-hampered teams last season. While I’m not impressed with the Celtics’ offseason after they lost Evan Fournier and were forced to dump Kemba Walker’s contract for Al Horford, I think a healthy Tatum-Brown-Smart trio should be enough to win 50 games, despite a somewhat shaky supporting cast.

6. Atlanta Hawks — Projected Wins: 46.5

• 20/21 adjusted wins:47 (Over)
• Isaac: Over (Lock) / Chris: Over

Isaac: I normally like to gloat when teams that surprised people the prior year regress to a more reasonable mean. But I’m all in on the Hawks as a regular season team this year. Capela had one of the more underrated seasons in the league, and Bogdanovic figured out his role, getting better as the season went along. Every young player is getting better, De’Andre Hunter is healthy, they re-signed Collins, added Delon Wright to the bench, and have the attitude of a team that wants to win. To ask the same of them as last season seems like a no-brainer.

7. Indiana Pacers — Projected Wins: 42.5

• 20/21: 39 adjusted wins (Under)
• Isaac: Over / Chris: Over (Lock)

Chris: I think the Pacers are one of the most underrated teams in the league coming off of a season when everything went wrong for them, leading to a sub-.500 finish despite being above average both offensively and defensively. The locker room was toxic enough that Nate Bjorkgren was kicked to the curb after a single season, and Indiana scored the biggest coaching glow-up this side of Nick Nurse by adding Rick Carlisle behind their bench. As a team that averaged 48.6 adjusted wins in the three preceding seasons, there’s no reason to think this isn’t a team that will handily clear .500.

8. Chicago Bulls — Projected Wins: 42.5

• 20/21 adjusted wins: 35 (Over)
• Isaac: Over / Chris: Over

Chris: This is one of the harder teams to predict for me. On paper this team should cruise by .500, and should be competing with the Celtics/Hawks/Pacers crowd to break into the second tier of the Eastern Conference. But the Bulls, who were supposed to compete for a playoff spot after acquiring Nikola Vucevic, were 15–23 after the All-Star break, losing by double digits a sickening 14 times. I’m not as high on their marquee free agency moves as some, but I love how they shored up their bench with Alex Caruso, Derrick Jones Jr., and Troy Brown Jr. I think this team will be right around .500, but it’s significantly more likely they overachieve than underachieve.

9. New York Knicks — Projected Wins: 41.5

• 20/21 adjusted wins: 47 (Over)
• Isaac: Over (Lock) / Chris: Under

Isaac: I know Julius Randle turning into a pumpkin in the playoffs last year probably scared a lot of people off. Signing Walker and Fournier injects the much need offence this team need after Randle stayed on fire the entire regular season. They may not be quite as hungry, but Thibs is not one to let sleeping dogs lie and let the Knicks waltz into a 6th seed after their disappointing first round exit. Whether they’ll get a 4 seed or not remains to be seen. But I expect them to aim for that, and by proxy get to 41 wins fairly comfortably.

10. Charlotte Hornets — Projected Wins: 38.5

• 20/21 adjusted wins: 38 (Over)
• Isaac: Over (Lock) / Chris: Over

Isaac: The Hornets won at a 38-win clip last year, and the projection is the same this year. They lost Graham, but I don’t see why they wouldn’t improve at least slightly. They’re one of five teams competing for four play-in spots. All of these middle-tier teams have the talent to talk themselves into one of the top six falling out, and them jumping in. The Hornets will be no different. LaMelo, Rozier, Hayward, and Bridges is a more than formidable top four that will continue to grow.

11. Toronto Raptors — Projected Wins: 35.5

• 20/21 adjusted wins: 31 (Under)
• Isaac: Over / Chris: Over

Chris: The biggest thing that gave me confidence in the Raptors this season wasn’t even anything basketball-related; it was the Toronto Blue Jays. The Jays returned to Toronto on July 30th with a 51–48 record and immediately proceeded to go nuclear, going 40–23 the rest of the way. To me this solidified some questions around just how much it matters to play on your home turf, something the Raptors lived without for all 82 games last season. While there are still plenty of lingering questions, I think the talent of their top three, along with players like Scottie Barnes and Precious Achiuwa injecting energy into the team, is a recipe for a team that will finish in the play-in game.

12. Washington Wizards — Projected Wins: 33.5

• 20/21 adjusted wins: 39 (Over)
• Isaac: Under / Chris: Under

Isaac: I pile on Russell Westbrook as much as the next guy, but his intensity and floor-raising abilities are immeasurably helpful when going after regular season wins. One of the least fun rosters in the league, the Wizards still have the potential to be a solid offence: they lost Russ, but gained Dinwiddie, Kuzma, and Caldwell-Pope. Hopefully Thomas Bryant can return healthy, as he looked sneakily good before missing the season to injury. Harrell and Hachimura are decent pieces to log minutes in the frontcourt as well. I’m not fully sure what Beal’s vaccination status means for the amount of games he’ll play this season, but the Wizards stand little hope to win games without him as the engine. I needed to go under somewhere in the bottom of the East, and after I hit on the Wizards over as a lock last season, I’m taking my chips home now.

13. Cleveland Cavaliers — Projected Wins: 27.5

• 20/21 adjusted wins: 25 (Under)
• Isaac: Over / Chris: Over

Isaac: The Cavs becoming a sexy League Pass candidate this offseason is certainly spooking me a little bit as I reflect on how unpredictable it can be to bet overs on teams with high tanking potential. The Cavaliers won a would be 25 games and the win projection is only 2.5 games more? Sexton, Garland, and Okoro have too much upside to not bet on. Ask one of my favourite under the radar Twitter follows; Jackson Frank. They will miss Nance Jr’s fit and chemistry, but Mobley and Allen are fun pieces with greater potential. Rubio will stabilize things where he needs to.

14. Detroit Pistons — Projected Wins: 25.5

• 20/21 adjusted wins: 23 (Under)
• Isaac: Under / Chris: Under

Chris: The Pistons punting on former 15th overall pick Sekou Doumbouya after just two seasons is a perfect encapsulation of how fraught their rebuilding process has been. Their path to improvement is obvious, but I don’t think this is the year it all comes together. The goal for the Pistons right now is to maximize playing time for Cade Cunningham, Killian Hayes, Saddiq Bey, and Isaiah Stewart, and they got rid of solid contributors like Mason Plumlee, Delon Wright, and Wayne Ellington to do so. Look for a fringe contender to pick up Jerami Grant at the deadline — Miami would love to have him.

15. Orlando Magic — Projected Wins: 22.5

• 20/21 adjusted wins: 24 (Under)
• Isaac: Over / Chris: Over

Isaac: The entertainment value of this team this bad is a testament of how good a place the league is in right now. It’s hard to pick this under given that I still think the Magic have a bunch of different likeable pieces. Suggs is entering the league as a classic floor raising guard, flanked by Anthony, Gary Harris, Terrence Ross, and Markelle Fultz. Jonathan Isaac and Wendell Carter is in theory a nice frontcourt. The Magic dealt with significant injuries to almost every member of rotation last year, and traded away their three best players last year. Yet their win total went down, not up. Even if they’re as bad as they were after the All-Star break last year when they went 8–28, they’ll still be knocking on the door of the over.