NBA 2021–22 Western Conference Over/Under Preview

Co-written by Isaac O’Neill and Chris Howson-Jan

• You can find the link to last year’s Over/Under results here.
• You can find the link to the East here.

• Win totals from last season are based on their adjusted win totals from the shortened season. ‘Adjusted wins’ will be used to refer to the equivalent number of wins in an 82-game season, based on win percentage.
• Even as we return to an 82 game schedule, it’s a little precarious to go about over/unders in the exact same regard.

Western Conference

• Locks:
• Isaac: Suns (Over), Blazers (Over), Pelicans (Under)
• Chris: Jazz (Over), Rockets (Under)
• Discrepancies: Suns, Warriors, Grizzlies, Timberwolves,

1. Los Angeles Lakers — Projected Wins: 52.5

• 20/21 adjusted wins: 48 (Under)
• Isaac: Over / Chris: Over

Chris: Like Isaac mentioned when discussing the Wizards, Russell Westbrook is a floor raiser. Given that the Lakers will probably be doing their best to manage the loads of Anthony Davis and LeBron James to avoid a repeat of last year’s playoffs, having a guy that can stuff the stat sheet and grind out wins with an inferior roster has real value. I’m still not sold on the Lakers as contenders and have no idea how they’ll play when their three stars all share the court together (particularly LeBron and Westbrook), but I think a top seed is definitely in play for them.

2. Utah Jazz — Projected Wins: 51.5

• 20/21 adjusted wins: 59 (Over)
• Isaac: Over / Chris: Over (Lock)

Chris: While the reckoning came in a big way for the Jazz in the playoffs, I see no reason why a team was the first seed last year and brought back virtually their entire rotation should drop eight adjusted wins. It’s totally valid to make the case that you can’t win a championship with Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert as your stars, but their performance last year and a mission to prove the doubters wrong after their flameout is more than enough for me to have them hitting the over.

3. Phoenix Suns — Projected Wins: 51.5

• 20/21 adjusted wins — 58 (over)
• Isaac: Over (Lock) / Chris: Under

Isaac: Everyone has poured water on the Suns at some point in the past year given their relatively easy pathway to the Finals. But they won an adjusted 58 games last year, not to mention their 8–0 record in the 2020 bubble. It’s unbelievable the perspective shift this team has gone through in the past 13 months. Yes, the path to the Finals was easy. They also stayed in stride with Utah for the entire season. They probably won’t be as motivated to eek out every win, but teams that make it to the Finals — and even lose — have a calmness and maturity about them the season after. Whatever point they no longer have to prove, I expect those 7 wins to be made up in a deserved confidence. There’s also the possibility they hear the noise around them and come out flying; similar to the 73-win Warriors after their easier road to the championship in their 67 win season the year prior.

4. Dallas Mavericks — Projected Wins: 48.5

• 20/21 adjusted wins: 48 (Under)
• Isaac: Under / Chris: Under

Chris: I’m not totally sure what kind of season this is for Dallas. If you came from the future and told me that the Mavs came out blasting and beat the Nuggets and Suns for the 3 seed in the West, I’d believe you. If you told me they disappointed and ended up in the play-in game, I’d believe that too. My faith in Luka Doncic is virtually limitless, but it is matched by my lack of faith in Jason Kidd as a head coach. This is largely the same team as last year for Dallas, and while there’s potential for some addition by subtraction in the form of Josh Richardson, you’re banking on another MVP-level season from Luka and the second coming of Porzingod to hit the over.

5. Denver Nuggets — Projected Wins: 47.5

• 20/21 adjusted wins: 54 (Over)
• Isaac: Over / Chris: Over

Isaac: I’ve been big on Michael Porter Jr. since high school, and that belief has not being shaken at all after he signed his contract heading into this season. I think MPJ needs to be the second best player on the team for the Nuggets’ big four to become the best version of themselves. Murray is excellent, but he seemed to be running on all cylinders in the bubble playoffs to be what he was. I still like him, but it doesn’t feel sustainable for a whole season. Perhaps MPJ and Murray simply trade night to night. Either way, the trio is extremely special offensively.

MPJ, Jokic, and a reasonably deep roster will get by in the regular season without Murray. If he returns healthy, I still think they’re right there among the contending field outside of Brooklyn. Gordon is only going to improve in his role as they get a real season to experiment. Jeff Green is an under the radar addition. Rivers, Barton, Campazzo, Morris (plus Green and Gordon) are scrappy enough to make good perimeter teams work hard against them.

6. Golden State Warriors — Projected Wins: 47.5

• 20/21 adjusted wins: 44 (over)
• Isaac: Under / Chris: Over

Chris: Last season was a nice reminder of how good the Warriors’ stars can be, especially Draymond Green, who bounced back in a huge way to finish top three in Defensive Player of the Year voting after looking banged up and washed out in 2020. Klay Thompson is obviously a big question mark, but the way Kevin Durant played last year gives me hope that rehab for ACL and Achilles injuries can bring players fully back to their former selves, even past 30. The return of Klay combined with internal development from James Wiseman and Jordan Poole is enough for me to take the over, but I also really like their offseason additions, both in the draft and in their sneaky-good pickups like Otto Porter Jr. and Avery Bradley.

7. Los Angeles Clippers — Projected Wins: 45.5

• 20/21 adjusted wins: 54 (Over)
• Isaac: Under / Chris: Under

Chris: With all due respect to the Clippers’ roster, they’re missing their best player — it’s as simple as that for me. Given what we saw from Kevin Durant during his rehab, and Kawhi Leonard’s injury history, I have no expectations to see him on the court this season. Los Angeles got the best out of misfit toys like Reggie Jackson and Nicolas Batum last season, and will be relying on them and players like Justise Winslow and some combination of Harry Giles and Isaiah Hartenstein to be legitimate contributors; if those players slip, it will be all too easy for the Clippers to slip with them.

8. Portland Trail Blazers — Projected Wins: 44.5

• 20/21 adjusted wins: 48 (Over)
• Isaac: Over (Lock) / Chris: Over

Isaac: I had to double check this projection three times to make sure it was correct. The Blazers beat their over/under last season (one of my locks), got quantitatively better during the season, and yet they’re slotted to win 3.5 fewer games? Nurkic missed half the season, and Nance Jr. fills a huge hole next to him, able to rim run better and match up a bit better versus smaller players. Ask anyone whose watched these grueling Cavs teams and they will sing Nance’s praises.

Apex Lillard plus the best version of CJ McCollum that we’ve only improved offensively with the addition of Norm Powell. The Powell-Trent trade was a net plus for both teams in my opinion. The Blazers have three serious threats to shoot or penetrate off the dribble. Defence will be a struggle as per usual, and the depth is really lacking, but Portland can afford to run with two of those guards if one goes out.

In a rare West with a bunch of question marks and injuries, the window to win is now. I think Portland knows the easier the path, the better chance they have. Lillard and CJ aren’t built to go heavy for four rounds. I think they have a chance to eclipse their best regular season under Lillard; 53 wins in 2018–19 (when they lost in the WCF).

9. Memphis Grizzlies — Projected Wins: 41.5

• 20/21 adjusted wins: 43 (Over)
• Isaac: Over / Chris: Under

Chris: I was really disappointed with Memphis’s offseason. They looked primed to make a big leap, then made a series of ill-advised trades where they gave up the best player in the deal: first Jonas Valanciunas, then Eric Bledsoe, then Patrick Beverley. They acquired some legitimate assets in some of those deals, but used them to make less than ideal moves like reaching for Ziaire Williams with the 10th pick. If players like Williams and newly-acquired Jarrett Culver work out, Memphis will be in a solid spot this season. But if Jaren Jackson Jr. fails to develop or the the Grizzlies struggle with injuries, they could definitely fall out of the playoff conversation.

10. New Orleans Pelicans — Projected Wins: 39.5

• 20/21 adjusted wins: 35 (Under)
• Isaac: Under (Lock) / Chris: Under

Isaac: Another lock of mine from last season that hit. It’s hard to see where the Pelicans are improving by 5 wins over last season. Zion is a planet, able to unlock plays no one else in the league is capable of creating. That only takes you so far in the West.

I’m right with the Jonas Valanciunas tribe, considering him to be maybe the most underrated player in the league. Yes, he’s an upgrade over Steven Adams, but still doesn’t fit excellently with Zion. I hope to see more improvement from Ingram, but there’s not a lot here for me to expect anything different in June of 2022 than the conversations we’re having right now.

11. Sacramento Kings — Projected Wins: 36.5

• 20/21 adjusted wins: 35 (Under)
• Isaac: Under / Chris: Under

Chris: The Kings might be the sneakiest over from all of last season. In my mind, they were extremely disappointing. Like most, I was high on Haliburton. I’m relatively high on Fox. However, it seems Hield will be leaving, and I could see them as sellers at the deadline getting rid of Barnes and whomever else. It’s a shame to see timing wise, and they could probably compete for a play-in spot.

12. Minnesota Timberwolves — Projected Wins: 35.5

• 20/21: 26 wins — Under (13th)
• Isaac: Under / Chris: Under

Isaac: Despite the naysayers I will continue to invest stock onto Karl Anthony-Towns as a potential 1st or 2nd Team level center. His statistics are basically unprecedented. I think the pendulum has swung too far on Russell; creators are not easy to come by. Edwards’ potential is sooo gripping. I like Beasley as a third guard. McDaniels, and Reid were quietly solid last year. After picking the over last year and getting burned. It’s hard for me to get there with 35 wins. I’d happily be proven wrong and watch KAT regain his stature. I do think they can compete for a play-in spot with the Pels and Kings. But I’ll need to wait a year given how turbulent the franchise remains.

13. San Antonio Spurs — Projected Wins: 28.5

• 20/21: 38 wins — Over (10th)
• Isaac: Over / Chris: Over

Chris: The Spurs are simultaneously better and worse than you think, depending on who you ask. For those that still see them as a perennial playoff threat or packing a ton of depth, they’re overrated. But those that see them as a collection of disjointed pieces are selling them short. Derrick White was nowhere near himself last year, and Keldon Johnson and Devin Vassell looked very promising. I hated the Doug McDermott signing for the price they got him at, but he’ll be a solid role player, and Thaddeus Young works as either a highly versatile depth piece or a trade chip for a better team. The Spurs aren’t as good as last year, but I’ve never known them to tank, and I think they’ll be better than some of the young teams that get more attention.

14. Houston Rockets — Projected Wins: 27.5

• 20/21: 19 wins — Under (15th)
• Isaac: Under / Chris: Under (Lock)

Chris: To go with my under, I have a second lock; this will be the worst defensive team in basketball this year. The Rockets rotation doesn’t have two plus defenders to rub together, and starting Kevin Porter Jr. and Jalen Green in the backcourt together is a recipe for disaster, like Collin Sexton and Darius Garland on a bad trip. In a vacuum I think they have some quality talent, but it just doesn’t hang together as a roster in any way, and their depth is virtually non-existent, relying on rookies and sophomores to take on much larger roles than their skillsets and development are suited for. I think this team will be capital B Bad, quite possibly worse than last year.

15. Oklahoma City Thunder — Projected Wins: 23.5

• 20/21: 25 wins — Under (14th)
• Isaac: Under / Chris: Under

Isaac: I compared this year’s Magic to last year’s Thunder. A scrappy team that will be entertaining and unfortunately shut things down early. Same goes for this years Thunder again. Not much else to say here, other than I hope this doesn’t begin to hurt SGA’s development curve. He truly is an exciting under-25 talent that has so much room to grow. We know how teams that tank can hurt culture and talent due to such complacency for years on end.