Who Stands to Gain the Most from the NBA Bubble? (Part 2)
by Isaac O’Neill and Chris Howson-Jan
The NBA is back! Last night we got our first taste of bubbleball, as the Jazz beat the Pelicans in a slightly sloppy affair, and the Lakers outlasted the Clippers in a showdown truly worthy of primetime. With the NBA season now well and truly underway, we’re finishing out our series on who can make the biggest gains on our top 100 list during this resumed NBA season. You can check out Part 1 here.
Nikola Jokic — Unranked
Isaac: After an underwhelming series win over the Spurs, followed by a loss to an injured Blazers team, the Nuggets proved their doubters right last year. Fortunately for them, the mounting pressure that would have been palpable this postseason has been removed, as media and fans will be far more understanding of the bad play that’s likely to occur for a few teams. But the unique circumstances of the bubble greatly increases the possibility of variance in results, and the Nuggets have a chance to step into that void and come out ahead of the pack.
Chris: While I do think it’s fair to say the Nuggets should have won their series against the Blazers, it’s also worth mentioning that last year was the first trip to the playoffs for Jokic, and he absolutely balled out. He averaged 25/13/8, was in the ballpark of 50/40/90 shooting splits, and led the playoffs in PER, Box Plus-Minus, and Win Shares/48. I see the Nuggets’ playoff woes as resting more at the feet of Jokic’s supporting cast than with him as a player. He, Jamal Murray, and Mason Plumlee were the only members of the Nuggets’ rotation to post a positive Box Plus-Minus or a PER above 15 (league average) in the playoffs. Jokic is in a unique situation among superstars where he doesn’t have to be better or even equally as good as he was last year for his team to perform better in the playoffs.
Isaac: The Nuggets’ expectations going into next season are going to be high regardless, but a Conference Finals berth against this field would be an impressive feather in Jokic’s cap early into his (hopefully) Hall of Fame career. The template for the Nuggets making it to the Conference Finals or farther exists in the 2003 Spurs. They had a superstar with a slew of role players who took turns stepping up in timely situations, trading big games amongst one another. If Jokic plays up to an MVP level, with opportune performances from Murray, Harris, Barton, Porter Jr. and co., don’t count them out. Similar to Curry’s “greatest shooter ever” label that he was rightfully given early in his career, Jokic has a chance to be renowned as the “greatest passing big man ever” by the end of this postseason.
Chris: The Nuggets are bringing back nearly their entire rotation from last year’s playoffs; that kind of roster continuity matters in high-pressure situations. With another All-NBA 1st or 2nd Team coming his way, a deep playoff run would give him one of the best résumés of any player 25 and under.
Best case ranking — Top 135
Jimmy Butler — #110
Isaac: I recently wrote a little bit about Vince Carter, comparing his career to Jimmy Butler. Fortunately for Butler, he is 13 years younger than Carter, and has a few good years still ahead of him. Though I had the Heat pegged as the 5th best team in the East going into the regular season, they have wildly exceeded everyone’s expectations; I do believe they have an outside chance of making the Conference Finals. If Jimmy performs to his peak as an All-Defensive guy, while leading the Heat in crunch time, and putting up a good fight against the Bucks, there’s a small possibility he could squeak into the top 100. He has been far more consistent on a game to game basis than Kyrie Irving — who currently sits at #98 on our list — over the course of their careers. Dave Bing sits at #99, a guy who Chris and I both think is wildly overrated. @PFTCommenter, give me some love for J-But!
Best case ranking — #99
Ben Simmons — Unranked
Isaac: It goes without saying that it’s rare for a player to walk into the league as a ready-made defensive stud, borderline Third-Team All-NBA guy, while putting on an excellent Magic Johnson impression. Simmons has averaged 16–8–8 for his career so far on good efficiency while playing at an All-Defensive level on the other side of the ball; he has become a meme, but only because of the wildly high expectations we now put on him. The Sixers haven’t earned the right to warrant a discussion about them in the Finals, but I will still concede they have a chance at the ECF, roughly on par with that of the Heat. Simmons will probably never be the most important player for the Sixers, but he could be the best. I worry about him in crunchtime, but he has the ability to put up historic stat lines over an extended playoff run. I can’t see him struggling with fatigue after four months off. He is already on a decent trajectory to eventually reach the top 100, but it is still too soon to see him there at season’s end.
Best case ranking — Top 200
Joel Embiid — Unranked
Chris: Embiid is still one of the best players in the league on a per-minute basis, but it still feels like we haven’t seen his absolute peak. His 2019 playoffs was a tale of two series; after averaging 25/14 on over .600 TS% in a 5-game trouncing of the Nets, he put up 18/9 against the Raptors and shot under 40% from the field, looking frustrated and lost against Marc Gasol and the rest of Toronto’s oppressive D. This year was also difficult for Embiid, as he struggled with injuries and had to adjust to the Sixers’ slightly head-scratching signing of Al Horford. When Embiid and Horford share the floor, the 76ers’ net rating is an abysmal -1.3. With Embiid alone, the number jumps to 8.5. There’s no question at this point that Embiid is a fantastic talent capable of taking over games, but we’ve never seen him do it consistently on the biggest stage. As Isaac mentioned previously, a Conference Finals appearance is on the table for the Sixers, and it could include some tough matchups for Embiid, like Bam Adebayo or the Domantas Sabonis (if he plays)/Myles Turner combo. If he can demonstrate his tremendous strengths and shore up some of his weaknesses in a playoff setting, the Embiid hype train will be back on the tracks, and it would become increasingly difficult to leave him out of the top 100 as he continues to rack up career accolades.
Best case ranking — Top 135
Kyle Lowry — #114
Chris: It would be nice to say that Kyle Lowry has nothing left to prove after helping bring Toronto its first championship last year, but that’s simply not the case. After a marked dip in his scoring the last two seasons, Lowry is back up around 20 points and 8 assists per game, with another All-Star berth and a fringe chance at All-NBA to add to his steadily growing accolades. The Raptors are pretty firmly the second-best team in the East despite losing their best player and another starter, and Lowry’s consistency and leadership deserves a lot of credit for that. He has largely exorcised his playoff demons, especially after his 26/7/10 line in the championship-clinching Game 6 against Golden State, but could still stand to add more to his playoff résumé to make a case for cracking the top 100. A repeat championship still isn’t totally off the table for the Raptors, and they’re one of the teams that has gained the most from the bubble, allowing a few months of rest for their banged-up rotation and placing teams in an uncomfortable situation that their roster cohesion should help them thrive in while others falter. And while it’s certainly an outside shot, there is an imaginable scenario where Lowry ends up with a Chauncey Billups-esque Finals MVP as the best player on a very egalitarian team. If he pulls that off, his back-to-back rings and 6 All-Star appearances will be enough to push him onto the Pyramid.
Best case ranking — #87
Pascal Siakam — Unranked
Isaac: After a lightning hot start to the season, Siakam’s unprecedented improvement over the last few years finally garnered attention around the league. He regressed slightly after the first 20 games as he settled into the role of primary scorer, taking on the attention such a role generates. A Third Team All-NBA to go with his first All-Star appearance would be a great place to start for Siakam. I still think there’s another level for his ball-handling and shooting to go, and he’s shown great strides in both areas, shooting a much larger percentage of above the break 3s this season. I trust him to figure a lot more out, even if I think being a top 5 player is an ambitious pinnacle.
Siakam’s massive uptick in scoring ability in 2018 is a huge part of the reason the Raptors had a chance in last year’s playoffs. Siakam and Lowry were an under qualified but serviceable second and third option. “Who was more important” is up for debate, oscillating between matters of high ceiling versus consistency. Spicy P played injured for part of the Sixers series, and the moment felt too big for him a couple times deeper in the playoffs. But being a top three player on a championship team is no small feat. If he can take another leap in his new role this playoffs, and help lead the Raptors to a Conference Finals or even Finals, he would put himself within spitting distance of the top 100 in a couple years if he rounded out with a few All-NBA nods. There is a road map where Siakam wins Finals MVP, which would really vault him into serious conversations as a guy just entering his prime.
Best case ranking — Top 120
Kemba Walker — Unranked
Isaac: Having Kemba as your best player may put a hard cap on your ceiling, but that doesn’t mean he hasn’t suffered from extremely poor management at the hands of Michael Jordan. Much like Lillard, Walker has improved every year of his career, and helped the Hornets consistently over perform relative to expectations. In 2016, the Hornets were one ridiculous Dwyane Wade performance away from making the second round. Cap woes have hampered them ever since.
Over the past four years, Kemba has put up 33 points and 8 assists on 38% from 3 on 12 attempts per 100 possessions. If he played 30 years ago, he could very well be on the top 100. His status as a pick and roll maestro will be put to good use in Boston. Injury concerns for Walker aside, the Celtics have a legitimate chance at the NBA Finals. Tatum will need to pick up where he left off, but Walker easing some of the pressure by being his best self will be huge. No one holds it against Davis or Lillard for losing in the West, and no one would hold a loss in the Conference Finals or Finals against Kemba if he performs up to snuff. Finally adding something legitimate to his playoff résumé could shoot him up our rankings, especially if he can moonlight as the best Celtic for stretches of the playoffs. Given his role as a PG on an egalitarian offence, a Finals MVP is not 100% out of the question.
Best case ranking — Top 130
Jayson Tatum — Unranked
Chris: Tatum had the breakout year people expected from him a year late, but has still only just turned 22, has an All-Star appearance under his belt, and has a pretty good shot at making All-NBA Third Team this season. What’s perhaps most promising about Tatum is that his efficiency rose even as his scoring numbers spiked, suggesting true improvement in his game, not just an increase in volume. He’s still not quite at the level of a clearcut #1 option, but with the addition of Kemba Walker, the breakout of Jaylen Brown, and a quietly resurgent year from Gordon Hayward, he doesn’t have to be; he’s still the top scorer on a top 5(ish) team in the league. The Celtics are a legitimate contender in the East — as much as any non-Bucks team can be — and there’s a genuine path for them to go to the Finals. Tatum has the invaluable experience of getting within one win of the Finals as a rookie in 2018, and there’s no doubt he’ll be hungry for more, including revenge against the Bucks after they trounced him last year. If the Celtics can go far, with Tatum continuing to prove he can raise his game in the playoffs, he’ll be off on the right foot for his path towards the top 100.
Best case ranking — Top 200
Rudy Gobert — Unranked
Chris: Gobert is one of those players that is simultaneously overrated and underrated among league pundits, a long, athletic rim-runner who can’t defend the perimeter on defense or stretch the floor on offense. The commonly accepted narrative surrounding Gobert is that he becomes a liability against teams that spread the floor, like the Rockets, who the Jazz have faced in the last two seasons. But looking at the numbers, that hasn’t been the case; Gobert posted Utah’s best net rating against Houston last year, although their defense was marginally better with Derrick Favors at the 5. Depending on how seeding shakes out, the Jazz’s first round series could be against the Thunder, Rockets, or Nuggets: a perfect matchup for Gobert’s skills, a terrible one, and a middling one, respectively. He’s also all but locked into an All-Defensive 1st Team, has a decent shot at making his third All-NBA Team, and isn’t out of the running for Defensive Player of the Year. Adding that hardware, especially DPOY — it would be his third, tying him with Dwight Howard and behind only Dikembe Mutombo and Ben Wallace’s four — and demonstrating his elite defensive acumen in a matchup that is suited to his strengths would go a long way towards his slowly building case as one of the finest defensive players of his generation. If he has an offensive breakout and averages something like 20/12 in two series, he could shed the ‘overrated’ label as well.
Best case ranking — Top 150
Donovan Mitchell — Unranked
Isaac: We have been inundated with fantastic rookie seasons recently, such as Morant, Simmons, and Towns. But Mitchell’s entrance stands as one of the greatest Rookie of the Year runner-up campaigns in NBA history. Despite a slight hedge by the masses on Mitchell’s ceiling after an inevitable dip in 2018–19 due to sky high expectations, Mitchell has been improbably good in his 2.5 years of play. He only committed fully to basketball when he was 15, after an injury playing baseball; for an American player, he is still relatively raw. Utah’s success begins with their defence, but Mitchell has made them tick on offence much more than Rubio or Conley ever could. After a tumultuous start, the Jazz settled into a reasonable 4th place slot in the Western Conference. Unfortunately for Utah, Bojan Bogdanovic’s wrist injury will keep him out of the bubble, and keep the Jazz from having a chance at making a deep playoff run. The playoffs will never be easy in the West, but Utah’s team oriented and defensive identity is a recipe for a high floor. If Mitchell can become the Second or First Team-calibre guard many expect him to be, the Jazz will be contenders for years to come. He had his first All-Star appearance this year, and has an outside chance at a Third Team All-NBA spot. He’s still a long way from the top 100, but he’s on the right path, and the Jazz’s probable early playoff exit will not be held against him.
Best case ranking — Top 215
Luka Doncic — Unranked
Chris: I’ll skip the I-told-you-so’s about Luka Doncic and simply say that he’s very, very good. He’s a statistical blip away from averaging 29/9/9 on the season, a mark only Oscar Robertson and Russell Westbrook have ever hit. He made his first All-Star appearance this year, and he’s firmly locked into either a 1st or 2nd All-NBA Team, making him the youngest All-NBA player since LeBron James. His Mavs are locked into a playoff spot, and could easily rise into the upper half of the bracket once the seeding games are finished. Oh, and he celebrated his 21st birthday back in February. Obviously nothing is guaranteed, but we’re talking about a superstar trajectory we haven’t seen since Anthony Davis, at least. Given the Mavs’ franchise history, Luka might already be on their Mount Rushmore. In terms of a broader historical context, an All-NBA 1st Team and a playoff series win as the unequivocal best player would immediately push him ahead of the overwhelming majority of players in NBA history. If he were to make a miracle run to, say, a Conference Finals, he’d be on a rocket ship to the top 100. More realistically, a series win in his first playoffs combined with a top 5 MVP finish would make for a fantastic step forward for his sophomore year.
Best case ranking — Top 150
