Who Stands to Gain the Most From the NBA Bubble? (Part 4)
A few weeks ago, we talked about the players that stood to gain the most from the NBA bubble, from players already on our list to those who could put themselves in pyramid contention. As the playoffs begin, we wanted to highlight a third class of player — the veteran. Some of these players already have a spot on our top 100 and are looking for a ring to bolster an already strong resume. For some a championship is the missing piece for a top 100, 150, or 200 spot. These aren’t bench-warming ring chasers; they just might be the difference makers in a big series. Check out the previous part of this examination here.
Gordon Hayward
Isaac: It’s unfortunate we will likely never see Gordon Hayward reach his full potential. He has just turned 30, and has one more year left on his contract with the Celtics. In his lone All-Star season, Hayward averaged 33/8/5 along with 40% from 3 on 8 attempts per 100. Mixed with impressive defence and ball handling, he could do everything required from a modern star. This year he averaged 25/10/6 with 38% on 7 3PA per 100. At a glance, not much different. However, the eye test is backed up by the more advanced statistics (Per BackPicks.com). His Box Creation (which estimates the amount of shots created for teammates per 100 possessions), was 6.5 in 2017, and 5.2 this year. Similarly, his Offensive BPM was 2.9 in 2017, and 2.2 in 2020. These impact numbers showed how helpful he’s been to the Celts this year, as he is not terribly far off his All-Star numbers. But practically all NBA numbers are graded on a curve, and that extra bit of juice he had in 2017 put him in the All-Star tier, as opposed to the good starter tier he currently resides in. Impact is also affected by load, and we don’t need Zach Lowe to tell us he’s doing less total work for Boston than he did for Utah. In terms of Offensive Load, (which is an estimate of the number of plays a player is “directly involved” in on offense every 100 possessions), Hayward’s load in Utah was 40 possessions per 100, whereas he sits at 32 possessions per 100 this year. Fortunately for the Celtics, the Tatum, Brown, and Smart trio have improved across the board enough to fill the void, along with the addition of Walker.
A lot of Hayward’s issues still seem to boil down to confidence, and when he feels good, he’s shown plenty of flashbacks to his All-Star caliber self. If Hayward can be consistent night to night, be felt by the opposition on every possession, and bring more consistency to the bubble playoffs, he can still be a hugely impactful player. The advanced statistics I pointed to impressed me coming from the shell of himself we saw upon his return in 2018. With Hayward out for the first two rounds of the playoffs at least, returning and playing at an All-Star level would go a long way towards putting his trajectory back at a top 200 level, at minimum.
Best case scenario: Top 215
Lou Williams
Chris: Like Jamal Crawford before him, Lou Williams has become the premier bench player in the league, joining J-Crossover as the only players to win the award three times. A member of the Clippers since 2017, Lou Will has been along for the entire ride for LA’s ascendancy, and strangely might be more important for their team than ever. In a squad dominated by its two stars, Lou and Montrezl Harrell have become vital cogs in the Clippers’ offence with their pure ability to get buckets. Now, with Harrell still returning to game form after leaving the bubble for a family emergency, even more responsibility falls on Williams’ shoulders to ignite an offence that was elite in the regular season but can stagnate without its stars making shots. If the Clippers go all the way, it wouldn’t be at all unreasonable to call Lou Will their third most important player. That’s a level of contribution to a title team we haven’t seen from a bench player since Jason Terry in 2011, and if Williams were to take home a record fourth 6MOY trophy — he’s already been named a finalist, though he’s not the frontrunner — we might have to start talking about him in the same breath as the likes of Manu Ginobili and Kevin McHale.
Best case scenario: Top 200
Kyle Korver
Isaac: Kyle Korver has been a role player for the majority of his career, starting about one third of his games played, with the vast majority of them coming from his 4.5 seasons in Atlanta. He’s averaged 9.7 PPG for his career. People will always debate the merit of Korver’s one All-Star, where he and three other starters (Horford, Millsap, and Teague) on the 60-win 2014–15 Atlanta Hawks were named to the All-Star Game. He only averaged 12 PPG, but had one of the greatest shooting seasons of all time. Hot take alert; Kyle Korver is in fact one of the greatest shooters of all time, still shooting 41% on four 3PA per game. 17 seasons in, he has by far the best chance of his career to win a ring. He ranks 10th in MPG on the Bucks roster, but the opportunity to play more is certainly a possibility if other Bucks players are unable to hit their 3s. Sitting 4th all time in career 3s, Mike Budenholzer should have no doubt in Korver’s ability to hit open shots. The Bucks’ historic defense is predicated on protecting the rim — they give up more open 3s than anyone else in the league — and so stronger perimeter isolation defenders are not quite as valuable to them as others. Korver has already had a great career, and making an impact on a historic team would make it all the more memorable.
Best case scenario: Top 250
Serge Ibaka
Chris: All but certain to go down as one of the greatest players to never be an All-Star, Ibaka has spent over a decade in the league as a top-tier defensive player and continually polished his offensive game. Now in his fourth season with the Raptors, he is a true glue player; he’ll play power forward or centre, he’ll start or come off the bench, he’ll score 20 or score 0 (not always intentionally). It’s safe to say that in 20 years not many people will be talking about Serge Ibaka, but part of the purpose of our Top 100 exercise is to give players that don’t get talked about enough in their historical contexts. Ibaka has already played for two Finals teams, and has played for a third (2016 Thunder) that probably win a title in a slightly different world. A second championship with the Raptors would cement him as a great player who undoubtedly contributes to winning basketball at the highest level.
Best case scenario: Top 300
Danny Green
Chris: In Danny Green, the NBA might be getting a class of player we haven’t seen in the last decade — the ring collector. This type of player is distinct from players like Patrick McCaw and James Jones, who won championships by virtue of landing on a good roster; it’s also distinct from, say, Andre Iguodala, a role player who won three rings in four years with the same team. The ring collector is akin to the Robert Horrys and Steve Kerrs of the world, a player who plays a legitimate role on several different championship teams with several different franchises. If Green were to win with the Lakers this year, he (and LeBron James, but who cares) would join Robert Horry and John Salley as the only players to win a championship with three different franchises. Our Pyramid values championships less than others, and nobody has ever mistaken Danny Green for a star player, but three rings as a starter is absolutely nothing to sneeze at. If he were to stay with the Lakers and end up with a fourth ring, he would join Horry and Kerr in a more exclusive club than the top 100 — the Pantheon of NBA role players.
Best case scenario: Top 300
