The Demographics of the Iowa Caucus Results

With actual votes cast, it’s now possible to understand the relationship between…

Why Polls Said “Trump!” and Iowans Said “Cruz!”

Iowa has voted. Now what? I’ve got a few takeaways for those who wonder why the final result differed from the polling averages.

Maybe the polls were wrong all along because they were counting too many Trump “unlikely…

How Analytics Can Improve Polling: A Case Study from South Carolina

Campaign pollsters have been critical of media pollsters this election season for releasing polls that seem to assume turnout well beyond what we would ever see in a primary. The typical national media poll will…

The Demographics of Trump’s Win in New Hampshire

What happened last night

Going into last night, public polling gave Donald Trump an average lead in the Iowa Caucus of 6.9 percent. Instead, he lost to Ted Cruz by 3.3 percentage points. While caucuses are tougher to poll than primaries or general elections, this 10 point gap represents a polling error…

Many people have criticized media polls this cycle because the respondents included in (often tiny) samples of primary voters don’t reflect the people who will actually vote in a primary. We think the answer to this problem is two-fold: 1) Polling elections using a voter file, and 2) using turnout models to ensure that polling samples reflect the…