Sampling, probability and certainty

Chapter 5

This chapter continues to explore statistical sampling. We look into the probability the answer given by sampling likely matches reality. We mention (again) that when using sampling you can NEVER be “certain,” but we can be…

Forecasting

Chapter 1

This chapter introduces the basic concepts of forecasting and sets the scene for how we will explore this topic in this book. By then end of this chapter you will understand what makes a “Great” forecast and what simple practices can set you on your journey to…

Forecasting, strategy

Chapter 2

This chapter looks at forecasting goals and strategies. It offers definitions about the difference between guesses, estimates and forecasts and why you care. It also pays tribute to Carl Sagan’s baloney detection tools by showing how to apply them…

Size-Growth-Pace Model

Chapter 3

Sampling, applying to software forecasting

Chapter 6

TL;DR. Chapter Summaries

Short, condensed summaries of each chapter for those in a hurry.

Preface Summary

Forecasting combines experience, group consensus and data into information that informs a decision. Even a guess is data of sorts.

Planning and Managing Unplanned (“Other”) Work

Teams are called upon to continuously deliver value to customers. Some work is planned, but other work is necessary to keep the delivery wheels tuning and customer satisfaction at it’s expected exemplary level. This work is often called “unplanned”…

Estimating, How Big

Chapter 7 — DRAFT

This chapter looks at estimating how big a feature or project may be. Knowing how big something is an important input for any model looking at forecasting how long or how expensive.

Sampling, an Introduction

Chapter 4

This chapter introduces statistical sampling, and how it has been used in the real world to answer critical questions. Sampling improves decisions where it’s impossible or expensive to get access to every piece of data, as the real world…

Chapter 8 — Estimating, “What Else” (scope growth)

This chapter looks at estimating how much additional work needs to be considered. Project and features grow in size as we learn more about a problem space, and often (believe it or not) we don’t get things perfect from a customer or technical…