From Future Vision to Present Action: A Guide to Backcasting in Climate Change Solutions
This post is the fourth part of a series called Exploring Future Scenarios in Climate Finance: A Case Study using Foresight Lab, where we want to showcase how our AI-powered foresight platform can help you to analyze complex data, extrapolate future scenarios and better create strategies today.
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Step 1: How to Apply the CLA Foresight Technique to Better Understand a Climate Finance Issue
Strategic foresight is a discipline that allows us to explore the future not as a fixed destination, but as a landscape of possibilities. One of the key methodologies used in this discipline is Backcasting, a planning method that starts with defining a desirable future and then works backwards to identify policies and operational strategies that connect that specified future to the present. The fundamental question of backcasting asks: “if we want to attain a certain goal, what actions must be taken to get there?”
While forecasting involves extrapolating the future based on current trend analysis, backcasting approaches the challenge of discussing the future from the opposite direction. This technique is particularly useful when the problem to be solved is complex and the future development is uncertain. The concept of backcasting was originally developed by John B. Robinson from the University of British Columbia in the 1990s and has since been widely applied in various fields including energy policy and sustainability.
Backcasting and Africa’s Climate Finance Challenge
To illustrate the application of Backcasting, let’s delve into a real-world event. A recent article titled “Africa’s Farmers Need Climate Finance. The Private Sector Must Step Up” shed light on the urgent need for climate financing in Africa’s agricultural sector. The article underscored the role of private sector investment in bridging the financing gap and the importance of making climate investments commercially viable for smallholder farmers.
In the context of this event, Backcasting can be used to explore various scenarios. We start by defining a desirable future: African smallholder farmers have access to the necessary climate finance, and their farms are resilient, regenerative, and profitable. Working backward from this future, we can then identify the steps needed to achieve this outcome. These might include increasing private sector investment, developing new financing mechanisms, and ensuring that climate investments are commercially viable for smallholder farmers.
YEAR: 2030
The Emergence of Africa's Smallholder Farms
In 2030, the world has unequivocally recognized Africa’s smallholder farms as crucial combatants in the climate change battle. Our protagonist, Michael Njenga, an African coffee farmer and entrepreneur is leading this change. With a mix of public and private capital flooding the market, he oversees unprecedented growth in his farming operations. His small one-acre coffee farm transforms into a flourishing, large eco-agri venture with fair trade organic coffee exported to eager markets worldwide. Michael’s success story is not exclusive, as its replications happen extensively across Africa, reducing poverty and enhancing the continent’s resilience against climate change.
YEAR: 2028
Technology for Green Growth
In 2028, a significant milestone is achieved — environmentally friendly technological advancements are now widely applied in Africa’s agricultural sector. Michael capitalizes on this, reinvesting his profits into emerging tech that assists in better crop yields while reducing his greenhouse gas contributions. The robustness of these technologies provides a welcomed safety net against the increasingly varying weather patterns, consequently boosting productivity and profitability.
YEAR: 2026
The Green Economy Leap
By 2026, engulfed in the urgency to curb climate change, a crucial strategy is implemented — a significant investment shift towards Africa’s smallholder farms takes place. These usually overlooked agricultural units start attracting abundant financial inflows from both domestic and international markets. This strategy dramatically improves the scale of operations at the grassroots level, creating an agriculture boom, and serves as an effective mechanism to combat poverty across the continent.
YEAR: 2024
Societal Empowerment & Technological Innovation
In the year 2024, societal and technological advancements synergize to change the narrative of Africa’s agriculture sector. Groundbreaking solutions leveraging AI, machine learning, and IoT are introduced and widely adopted by farmers. These innovations amplify productivity and make a profound impact on smallholder farming units like Michael’s coffee farm. Efficiency increases, waste decreases, and the quality of crops improves significantly, marking a pivotal moment in accelerating progress towards the ultimate vision.
YEAR: 2023
Foundations for a Greener Future
Our narrative begins in the year 2023 when a key event sets the stage for Africa’s agricultural revolution. Michael Njenga, being an adept farmer and visionary, realizes the hidden potential of smallholder farming units and embraces sustainable, climate-smart farming practices. This way, he lays the critical foundation for a resilient future, setting the wheels in motion towards a greener tomorrow.
Backcasting Powered by Generative AI
Generative AI has the potential to revolutionize our foresight tools. By generating a range of possibilities based on existing data and trends, it can simulate countless scenarios, providing a more comprehensive view of potential futures. This not only improves efficiency and accuracy but also allows us to consider a broader range of factors.
Imagine turning Backcasting into a skill powered by generative AI. We could train an AI model to understand the Backcasting framework and generate plausible scenarios. This AI-powered tool could then be used to explore potential futures for any given event or issue, making strategic foresight more accessible and efficient.
For instance, in the case of Africa’s climate finance challenge, an AI could generate detailed scenarios based on current trends, policies, and economic factors. It could simulate the impacts of different levels of private sector investment, the adoption of various farming practices, and the potential effects of climate change on smallholder farmers.
As we stand on the precipice of the future, tools like Backcasting and technologies like generative AI are more important than ever. They allow us to explore the realm of possibilities, preparing us for what’s to come. The automation of foresight tools is not just a technological advancement; it’s a step towards a future where we can navigate uncertainty with confidence and clarity. The future is not a distant shore; it’s a horizon we’re crafting, one scenario at a time.
And here we are!
Thank you very much for joining us during this week on our series! We hope it was a good way of showcasing how Foresight Lab can bring generative AI as a helpful assistant to Foresight activities all around the world.
Next step: ?
Our series of posts are concluded here, and we hope you enjoyed learning how to apply different foresight techniques with Foresight Lab in your researches!
Maybe we'll have a bonus next week…
Any thoughts, feedback, ideas? Get in touch in the comments and let’s create a better future together!
