The Guesstimate Blog

Estimating the Harm North Korea Inflicts on its Citizens

[Content warning: torture, rape, suicide]

The North Korean government wants to eliminate an entire cast among its citizens. One wrong word from you or a relative and you end up in a prison, re-education, or…

Create Calculators from Guesstimate Models

Guesstimate spreadsheets are flexible, but not always simple. Sometimes you just want to run one particular function multiple times or share it with others.

The Flaws of Best & Worst Case Analyses

A standard technique to account for uncertainty with project planning, revenue forecasts…

Visual Sensitivity Analysis in Guesstimate

Trying to understand how variations in one variable impact another? You could manually adjust the first and observe changes in the second, but this takes time and doesn’t account for multivariable effects.

Lognormal > Normal

TLDR: If you are estimating only positive numbers, you probably want to use lognormal distributions.