8.15 Presidential Social Intelligence Battleground Tracker
An aggregate weekly pulse of how potential voters in battleground states are discussing the Presidential candidates.
— Please check out the background post on this project if it is your first time reading.
— Our initial dataset from the week of 7.3 was detailed here.
— Data from the week of 7.11 was detailed here
— Data from the week of 7.19 was detailed here.
Battleground States in our Analysis: AZ, CO, FL, IA, ME, MI, MN, NV, NH, NC, PA, TX, WI
Date Source: All data is publicly available and anonymized for our analysis from Twitter, Facebook, Online Blogs, & Message Boards.
Technology Partners: Eyesover & Relative Insight
UPDATE
We have been busy with actual client work the past few weeks, along with some travel — this has created a gap in our writing.
That said, we have been keeping up with data aggregation in the background and will use this post as a quick summary of our data to date. We will be releasing a separate language analysis later this week.
Support Gain/Lost
The “Support Gain/Lost” metric is built by analyzing the language used in social posts about the presidential candidates. As battleground voters use language to indicate support for a candidate, our systems register “+1” in “Support Gained” for that date. A post expressing negative support is registered as “-1” in “Support Lost.”
There are 6 metrics we monitor on a daily basis across each state:
— Previous Non-Supporter to Neutral: (a post indicating a previous non-supporter has moved to a more neutral stance on a candidate)
— Suport Gained: (a post indicating support gained for Trump or Biden)
— Support Lost: (a post indicating support lost for Trump or Biden)
— Previous Supporter to Neutral: (a post indicating a previous supporter has moved to a more neutral stance on a candidate)
— Net Daily Gain/Lost: (the daily net of Support Gained v. Support Lost)
— Net Daily Neutral Shift: (the daily net of “Shifts to Neutral”)
Aggregate Daily Support Gain/Lost 7.05–8.14
Trump
— AZ: Gained 6,306, Lost -4,991, Net Gain/Lost +1,315
— CO: Gained 4,349, Lost -3,655, Net Gain/Lost +694
— FL: Gained 12,444, Lost -10,657, Net Gain/Lost +1,787
— IA: Gained 2,732, Lost -1,802, Net Gain/Lost +930
— ME: Gained 2,425, Lost -1,343, Net Gain/Lost +1,082
— MI: Gained 6,322, Lost -5,119, Net Gain/Lost +1,203
— MN: Gained 5,018, Lost -3,858, Net Gain/Lost +1,160
— NC: Gained 6,342, Lost -5,373, Net Gain/Lost +969
— NH: Gained 2,471, Lost -1,547, Net Gain/Lost +924
— NV: Gained 5,320, Lost -3,913, Net Gain/Lost +1,407
— PA: Gained 9,251, Lost -7,645, Net Gain/Lost +1,606
— TX: Gained 13,169, Lost -11,816, Net Gain/Lost +1,353
— WI: Gained 4,593, Lost -3,334, Net Gain/Lost +1,259
Biden
— AZ: Gained 4,040, Lost -3,774, Net Gain/Lost +266
— CO: Gained 2,725, Lost -2,625, Net Gain/Lost +100
— FL: Gained 8,340, Lost -7,871, Net Gain/Lost +469
— IA: Gained 1,095, Lost -1,012, Net Gain/Lost +83
— ME: Gained 757, Lost -676, Net Gain/Lost +81
— MI: Gained 4,060, Lost -3,641, Net Gain/Lost +419
— MN: Gained 3,116, Lost -2,701, Net Gain/Lost +415
— NC: Gained 4,261, Lost -3,856, Net Gain/Lost +415
— NH: Gained 855, Lost -824, Net Gain/Lost +31
— NV: Gained 2,946, Lost -2,674, Net Gain/Lost +272
— PA: Gained 6,696, Lost -6,166, Net Gain/Lost +530
— TX: Gained 8,949, Lost -8,725, Net Gain/Lost +224
— WI: Gained 2,550, Lost -2,182, Net Gain/Lost +368
Aggregate Language Analysis
To date we have processed:
— 620,061 social posts that indicate support for Trump in battleground states
— 13,603,586 total words
— 754,908 social posts that indicate support for Biden in battleground states
— 16,935,105 total words
The date range breakdown of the datasets are as follows:
This post data is aggregated and scored” from Eyesover Technologies’ social intelligence and sentiment analysis tools — the subsequent (anonymized) scored data set is processed and analyzed via Relative Insight.
Daily Support Gained/Lost Tracker
Here we examine day-by-day “Support Gain/Lost” by battleground state + the volume and topics of the discussion around each candidate.
The data is compiled via social intelligence systems monitoring each battleground state with our partner Eyesover Technologies.
The “Support Gain/Lost” metric is built by analyzing the language used in social posts about the presidential candidates. As battleground voters use language to indicate support for a candidate, our systems register “+1” in “Support Gained” for that date. A post expressing negative support is registered as “-1” in “Support Lost.”
Arizona:
Colorado:
Florida:
Iowa:
Maine:
Michigan:
Minnesota:
North Carolina:
New Hampshire:
Nevada:
Pennsylvania:
Texas:
Wisconsin:
About The Author
Adam Meldrum is an award-winning political & digital strategist. He is the Founder/President of the Republican media-buying operation AdVictory LLC. Adam has consulted with other organizations in the political/technology space such as DDC Public Affairs and WinRed. Adam also serves on The Board of Directors at HeadCount, a non-partisan organization that uses the power of music to register voters and promote participation in democracy.
Since 2006 Adam has produced award-winning work for and advised campaigns/organizations such as; Governor Rick Snyder, Governor Bruce Rauner, Governor Doug Burgum, Governor Bill Lee, Ambassador Ron Weiser, Senator Ben Sasse, Senator John McCain, Senator Rand Paul, The Republican National Committee and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.
Adam’s work on the forefront of technology, data, and analytics was featured by OZY Media in a profile: “Meet the GOP’s Chatbot and Artificial Intelligence Guru”. He is a die-hard Michigan State University fan/alumni and pretty obsessed with Phish and The Grateful Dead. He resides in Washington D.C. with his beautiful wife Christina and their weird puppy, Basil.
Personal Website: http://www.adammeldrum.me/
