A Win for Cruz, A Loss for Corn
Corn and its first-in-the-nation caucus: these are the things for which Iowa is known in much of the country.
But Senator Ted Cruz upended conventional wisdom about both, winning the state’s Republican caucus Monday in spite of his opposition to the Renewable Fuel Standard, a major ethanol subsidy. No candidate from either party who has spoke against the subsidy has previously won in the country’s biggest ethanol producer.
Mr. Cruz’s win casts into doubt the need of candidates to express their support for the RFS, which candidates from both parties typically do regardless of their views on government involvement in the economy.
The senator netted 28% of the vote, doing particularly well among very conservative and evangelical voters. Businessman Donald J. Trump was leading in the polls going into the caucus, and his celebrity and domination of the media contributed to the added interest and record-setting turnout in this year’s vote. Mr. Cruz’s ground game was more dependable, however, and Senator Marco Rubio surged late, finishing in third place with 23% of the vote, dividing voters who preferred more “establishment” candidates compared to the resolute Mr. Cruz.
Iowa’s Terry Branstad, the longest-serving governor in US history, sharply criticized Mr. Cruz before the caucus, calling his position on renewable energy mandates “disastrous” at the Iowa Renewable Fuel Summit. Mr. Branstad, a Republican, has not expressed his opinions about caucus-going candidates since 2000. He said Mr. Cruz supported positions that are “diametrically opposed” to issues “that I think are really important to our state.”
Eric Branstad, the governor’s son, is the state director of America’s Renewable Future, an organization that lobbies on behalf of the RFS as a way to lessen the country’s dependence on foreign oil. After Mr. Cruz’s victory, he released a statement affirming the popularity of the mandate.
“In 2016, 83% of Iowans supported pro-RFS candidates,” the statement said, noting a higher percentage of support for candidates advocating the ethanol mandate this election compared to 2012. Of the 14 presidential candidates, only Mr. Cruz and Senator Rand Paul (who has since dropped out of the race) opposed the measure.
But Mr. Cruz’s victory undermines the view that winning candidates must pander to the corn industry, and it could diminish the power of RFS-backers in Washington.
The program was established in 2005, although corn-producers have benefitted from government support for decades. It has been a boon to the state’s economy, vaulting Iowa’s ethanol production to the third-largest in the world, behind only the rest of the US and Brazil.
The biofuel mandate is less popular outside the Hawkeye State. When Democrats retook Congress in 2007, they capped the amount of ethanol that could be blended with gasoline. Tea Party Republicans also oppose the measure, comparing the it to the insurance mandate of the Affordable Care Act, as do refineries and big oil companies, which must implement the blending of ethanol with gasoline. Oil interests have contributed significantly to Mr. Cruz’s campaign.
Whether Mr. Cruz’s victory can mobilize these forces remains to be seen. Either way, it is yet another demonstration of the unpredictable nature of this election.
