Note: Financially sophisticated readers are probably served best by skipping the words and looking at the charts, you’ll know what I mean.
If you are a homeowner, you probably know that if mortgage rates decline, you can refinance…
Asset returns can be considered a function of the differential between expected real earnings growth, and realised real earnings growth. This can be borne out by solving for future S&P 500 alpha over short-term corporate bonds, using starting valuation (LERP), realised inflation…
A principal cause of the global nature of the Great Depression, and 1937 recession was the sterilization of gold in-flows into the United States. The United States found itself as the destination…
With an election fast approaching, we have been thinking about how the outcome of the presidential election could affect capital markets. One aspect that we feel has not gotten enough attention is how it could impact the investment-grade (IG) corporate bond…
Earlier today Stephen Williamson, of the St. Louis Fed, posted an excellent response to the vocal disappointment of many economic commentators over the low headline number of payroll growth in May reported on the Employment Situation…
According to the BLS’s Labor Productivity and Costs series, since 1947, Real Compensation Per Hour is up 212%, while Real Output Per Hour is up almost 392%.
Last June I wrote a response to a blog post by Stephen Williamson, of the St Louis Fed, in which I argued that an estimate of 60,000 payrolls per month was too low of an estimate for employment growth and that my…
