New River Investments

Quantifying excess deaths of SSA OASDI recipients

The Robots Have Taken Over (Our Brains)

Estimates of potential employment growth

Summary

Last June I wrote a response to a blog post by Stephen Williamson, of the St Louis Fed, in which I argued that an estimate of 60,000 payrolls per month was too low of an estimate for employment growth and that my…

An Intro to the Dreaded #ConvexityVortex

Note: Financially sophisticated readers are probably served best by skipping the words and looking at the charts, you’ll know what I mean.

If you are a homeowner, you probably know that if mortgage rates decline, you can refinance…

The A/S and A/D Curves Are Not A Wassily Kandinsky Painting

The Fed Is Repeating A 1937 Mistake

(but not the one you think)

A principal cause of the global nature of the Great Depression, and 1937 recession was the sterilization of gold in-flows into the United States. The United States found itself as the destination…