RSR Analysis Sunday — Edition 19
Reserve is Building Real Products, Used by Real People
Happy Sunday Rangers! I wanted to take a few minutes this week to discuss a topic that I think has been on everyone’s mind lately.
That’s right — Dogecoin. And Safemoon, and Cardano and XRP and Stellar and Ethereum Classic and Matic (or is it Polygon?) and EOS and Tron and bakery tokens and FruityChain and…well, you get the idea.
It can be tough sometimes, even for the most seasoned crypto investor, to watch other projects taking off, doing multiples and multiples in a few short weeks. The temptation to capitalize on the latest memecoin or the latest “hyperscaling” story can be difficult to resist, especially when yet another Tik Tokker is shilling it to you from whatever mansion they rented or conned their way into that week. Some have better stories than others. Some have been around longer than others. Some projects are unapologetically vaporware, while others try to hide it with loud partnerships or confusing technology. So let’s explore them a bit, and how Reserve is different.
Meme Phenomena, Hyperscaling Mathcoins, and Ghostly Apparitions
As I see it, there are three main categories of trauma-inducing cryptos that participants are being distracted by at the moment:
Meme Phenomena
- This category includes your Dogecoins and Safemoons. Your Elongates and essentially anything brought to you by someone whose primary profession is “YouTuber” or “Tik Tokker”.
- Dogecoin is at least unapologetic about its memery, and might have a longer-term place in crypto lore. However the idea that anything close to the majority of these projects will withstand the test of time or actually add value for users should be a meme in itself.
- As Pomp will claim, the meme is the message. The message might be that people are tired of the financial system status quo, that social tokens are a new way of interacting, or something else. But at the end of the day these don’t actually add real value.
Hyperscaling Mathcoins
- This is a difficult one to identify, because separating the tech from the use case can be hard if you’re non-technical or new to the space. Crypto is a hard topic to understand. Side chains and main chains, sharding, zero-knowledge proofs, scaling, cross-chain interoperability, node centralization, proof-of-work, proof-of-stake. The list of technical jargon is never-ending.
- Ultimately, a Hyperscaling Mathcoin will claim it is solving a Giant Problem No One Else Can and you will end up repeating how great the tech and partnerships are.
- A fun example is the FruityChain “satire chain” (which only after its creation, I later found out may or may not be real). This was completely made up but between a white paper and a fancy website and some fluffy partnerships could become a top Mathcoin.
Ghostly Apparitions
- Incredibly, projects that were long thought dead, sapped of liquidity and with bag holders licking their wounds during the crypto winter have sprung alive again in recent months.
- When is the last time you saw any news about Ethereum Classic other than those 51% attacks last year? But it did a 3x last week. Or “Chinese-Ethereum” Neo that no one uses but is still an $8B project? At least Block.One holds a lot of bitcoin, but does anyone actually think EOS has a shot at going mainstream? Well, it doubled in the last two weeks.
- The list goes on and on. Essentially dead projects with little in the way of fundamentals that are either experiencing technical breakouts or are getting bought up by new entrants thinking they’ve found the next big thing. But really all that matters in crypto is the network value you are building for participants. And if your network doesn’t have any participants, then the value will be fleeting.
So, what does this all mean? Are we in a 2017-style euphoria? Is the end nigh? Maybe, but cycles can last a long time and crypto is here to stay. The good news is that each of these categories will bring new entrants into the crypto space, growing the overall pie for real projects with real use cases.
Can you make money on these koinz? Sure. Will you feel good about yourself afterwards? Maybe. Are you more likely to lose in the long-run? Yes. Can you buy Crunkchain v2 on Pancakeswap and get 4,000% APY through a liquidity pool with impermanent loss protection? Probably; I’m not sure.
So the question is, why does this matter for Reserve?
The key to success in crypto is building a robust network in an open and trustless system. I can’t emphasize this enough. The entire game is users and network effects. You want users on the network, participating in it, and helping it grow. Bitcoin has millions of loyal users and is increasingly integrated into financial applications, Ethereum has thousands of applications on it and millions of users. These networks will become more and more entrenched over time with a virtuous cycle of developers building them and users getting value from them.
Reserve is doing this with RSV, and they are starting in Venezuela, Colombia, Argentina, and Panama. They’re testing the app and the protocol and ensuring it works for the intended purpose — real people that need a real application. These aren’t crypto people. They don’t care about memes or hyperscaling or what the trendiest tech was four years ago. They want to protect themselves and their families from hyperinflation. But the technology that underpins cryptocurrency — decentralized and trustless networks — will allow tools like Reserve’s that combat inflation to withstand even the most oppressive regime attempting to shut it down. And ultimately, RSV will become the most popular stablecoin for crypto users as well, because it will work in the real world too.
The ecosystem Reserve is building isn’t for a meme, for the tech, or from the past — it’s being built to last. They are taking time to get it right and be ready to scale globally, which is vastly more important than short-term profits.
Technical Analysis — Week of May 9th
Weekly Timeframe — USDT Pair
This price action looks a lot like consolidation working toward resolution. I’ll stick with last week’s predictions. When we close a weekly candle over $0.10 then we’re off to the races and price discovery mode will be engaged. Accumulate now (perhaps at $0.094?) or forever live with regret.
Daily Timeframe — USDT Pair
Always zoom out — if we pull fibo magic lines from the bottom around 15 months ago to the $0.10 mark (0.236 extension) we can see the 0.382 extension is right around where we’ve been consolidating the past month. It shows ultimate breakout around $0.13. I’m still bullish on May and expect to end the month in the $0.12 — $0.18 range. Bitcoin and Ethereum are both looking strong and the bullishness should extend to smaller caps in the next week or two.
It does look like we are on the verge of a breakout — looking for a weekly close above $0.10 or at least a 3 day to confirm. Still very solid consolidation from the last several weeks around $0.08.
Daily Timeframe — BTC Pair
Continued consolidation and a nice bounce off the 130 sats level. Slight uptrend — I’d like to see a slow and steady continued upward momentum into the 160–185 levels from here.
Previous Editions of RSR Analysis Sunday
Edition 18 — May 2nd, 2021
The Future is DAO
Edition 17 — April 25th, 2021
The Age of Crypto
Edition 16 — April 18th, 2021
What the FUD? | Thoughts on RSV
Edition 15 — April 11th, 2021
Reserve & Network Valuations
Edition 14 — April 4th, 2021
Reserve, Bitcoin, & Time Scarcity
Edición Especial de Abril — April 1st, 2021
FruityChain Implementation
Edition 13 — March 28th, 2021
Successes from Marzo (App Rollout)
Edition 12 — March 21st, 2021
Scaling The Team & The Importance of User Experience
Edition 11 — March 14th, 2021
Reserve Adoption — It’s Happening
Edition 10 — March 7th, 2021
Welcome to Medium
February 2021
All Reports from February (originally shared in Telegram)
January 2021
All Reports from January (originally shared in Telegram)
DISCLAIMER: “RSR Analysis Sunday” is for entertainment and informational purposes only and is not meant to be construed as financial advice of any kind. All investments carry risks.
“RSR Analysis Sunday” is not endorsed or supported by the Reserve Team, or any of its affiliates.
