3 Issues that Will Determine Morrison’s Electoral Fate
Can the Coalition still win this election?
In an earlier article, I looked at how the the Morrison government is facing greater challenges in the lead-up to this Federal Election than in 2019.
As I argued then, it is on balance much harder for Morrison to win this election. The Coalition are even further behind in the polls, and facing intense competition not only from Labor, but from small-l liberal independents in key seats — on top of this, the pandemic has changed what it means to be fiscally responsible, nullifying a key Coalition talking point, and Albanese’s ‘small target’ strategy has made it much harder to mount any effective scare campaigns.
Nonetheless, there are some factors that were not present in 2019 which could help Morrison win this election — or at the very least, narrow the contest. Alongside those mentioned above, these are the issues that will define this election.
Most important among these factors are: the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the salience of national security as an electoral issue; the resulting change in economic conditions and cost of living; and how voters perceive the government’s track record at managing the pandemic.
National Security
On the first of these factors, the war in Ukraine, there has been little evidence so far that the Morrison Government has successfully made national security a significant election issue — but this is not for want of trying.
Defence Minister Peter Dutton has adopted the attack dog role in media appearances, continually emphasising Labor’s supposed weakness on national security. The fact that Labor under Albanese has had no real substantive points of disagreement with the Coalition on defence or foreign affairs is brushed over, with the latest online ad from the Coalition highlighting the fall in defence spending during the Gillard government as evidence of Labor’s untrustworthiness on national security.
Morrison meanwhile has emphasised the ‘clear link between Australia’s economic security and our defence security’. His recent visit to a Western Sydney facility producing sonar array technologies was about highlighting his claim that the AUKUS agreement will help bolster the defence industry in Australia. So, while Dutton employs the incendiary rhetoric of a political bomb thrower, Morrison can present himself as the constructive problem-solver, turning our national security challenges into economic opportunities.
Whether this complementary double act continues remains to be seen. Morrison is particularly adept at scare campaigns — his wild warning that Labor’s 2019 electric vehicle policy would ‘end the weekend’ being a case in point. But this scare campaign has yet to bite: an Essential poll found only 24 percent of voters regarded the Coalition as being the best party to handle the Ukraine conflict. Another 24 percent thought Labor would be better, while 33 percent thought there would be no difference .
The Ukraine war is a distant conflict, with little obvious impact on Australia’s national security.
Nor does polling suggest voters see national security as a significant issue. In a survey conducted in early March, JWS Research found only 6 percent of surveyed voters nominated defence/national security as one of the three most important federal issues.
These findings probably reflect that the Ukraine war is a distant conflict with little obvious impact on Australians’ security. This differs from perceptions in our last ‘khaki election’ in 2001, which was conducted in the immediate aftermath of 9/11. In contrast to a European land war, voters thought terrorist acts could happen anywhere — including Australia — leading to a rise in demand from voters and politicians alike for strengthened national security.
The low salience of defence as an issue is unlikely to change during the election campaign, unless we see a major escalation of the Ukraine conflict — such as the use of nuclear weapons — or China moves on Taiwan. Both these events are unlikely to occur, though not impossible. In either scenario, the advantage of incumbency would be a major asset for Morrison.
Economic Conditions and the Cost of Living
So far though, the economic effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine have been more significant than its effect on the national security debate. These effects have been both positive and negative for the government. On the one hand, they have caused the cost of petrol to skyrocket, with flow-on effects for the prices of most other goods and services. However, demand for our commodities has also increased considerably, which has boosted the government’s revenue and thus improved the budget’s bottom line.
With no chance of a surplus for years to come, the government feels less pressure to maintain fiscal discipline…
What this means is that while the war has indirectly caused the cost of living to become a far more salient issue for voters (as can be seen in the graph above), it has also given the government more room to move in the budget to relieve those very cost of living pressures. Of course, if Morrison had wanted, he could have pocketed the revenue windfall and delivered a lower deficit, but the government has instead opted for a range of temporary tax cuts and spending.
Partly because of this, in the short-term at least, the budget largesse this year is greater than the 2019 budget. The difference in 2019 was that the budget was forecasting a small surplus; if the election bribes had been any larger, this could have tipped the budget back into deficit. In this year, with no chance of a surplus for years to come, the government feels less pressure to maintain fiscal discipline.
… meaning they’re free to target voters’ back pockets.
So, while the 2019 budget offered immediate, albeit temporary income tax cuts of about $4 billion a year, the 2022 budget offers roughly $6.5 billion a year on three big ticket items: $1.5 billion in one-off cash payments to welfare recipients, $3 billion for a cut in the fuel excise, and roughly $2 billion in temporary income tax cuts. Importantly, voters will have lived experience of much of this relief before the election, with the excise cut now in effect and the welfare payment to be delivered in April.
Pandemic Management
The final significant factor that may assist the Coalition is how voters judge their record on handling COVID-19. COVID-19 has dominated Australian politics — along with life in general — for much of the last two years, but strangely, it has become less of an issue within political debates in the last couple of months, despite continued high case numbers.
One potential reason is that while there is a genuine debate to be had about whether some restrictions should be eased so quickly, all sides of politics, at both state and federal, seem fairly eager to move to a ‘living with COVID’ scenario.
The real contest will likely be about framing the federal government’s handling of the pandemic over the last two years, in which the Coalition will no doubt emphasise the thousands of lives saved by the government’s actions. While setbacks occur, as Morrison states in a recent ad, ‘you always have imperfect information’. The obvious subtext here is that stuff-ups were inevitable. Labor on the other hand will argue lives were lost because of the bungled vaccine rollout.
It’s All About Framing
The government’s ability to frame how the electorate views its record on COVID-19 will depend also on Morrison’s ability to address concerns about his character. Accusations from political colleagues, former Liberal party staffers and foreign leaders that he is a liar, obsessed with playing politics, have undoubtedly damaged his credibility. But if Morrison can find a way to neutralise concerns about his character, the Coalition stands a strong chance of winning the framing contest, and convincing voters that overall, the government’s record on COVID-19 is positive.
Like the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the resulting increase in cost-of-living pressures, these factors do not hand an automatic political advantage to Scott Morrison. He will have to fight hard to frame the election campaign around the issue of national security, to highlight his big-ticket budget items designed to address cost of living pressures, and to convince the public that his handling of the pandemic was a net positive. If Morrison is successful in this, then he stands a far greater chance come election day.
Connor Harvey is a semi-regular contributor to Statecraft, and a member of the Australian Labor Party. This article is a follow-up to his earlier piece of election analysis: ‘The Coalition is marching toward electoral oblivion — and is near the point of no return’.
Statecraft is your home of all things analytical, opinionated, and sometimes insightful this election campaign. If you agree, disagree, or have something to add, you can now send a letter to the editor at publications@uqppes.com.au.
Thanks to Samuel Chamberlain and Caitlin Goston for editing this piece.
