CLIMB YOUR WAY OUT OF HELL
WHAT ARE THE FOUR ECONOMIC RECOVERY SCENARIOS?
U, V, W or the dreaded L….?
The global economy continues to tank. Let’s leave that aside.
Let us look at this scenario: Revenue for our business has come down. It has either slowed down or hurtled downhill. In certain cases, it has come to a standstill. There are four major scenarios of economic recovery that could be in play today. Each scenario is denoted by a letter: V, U, W and L. One of them is “hell”.
Note: I am not an economist. Therefore, this is my simplified explanation for the benefit of fellow entrepreneurs.
Let us say that a particular service is priced at 100x under normal circumstances. As the crisis continues, the rate keeps dropping. When it is at 10x, you panic and hope that this is the bottom. But what if the drop continues to 1x? What would you do? What are the possible scenarios for recovery?
Four scenarios for economic recovery are provided here with price/rate on the Y axis and time on the X axis.
V:
100x → 0x →100x
We are at the bottom of the V, or so we hope. But we don’t know. Revenues have tumbled and the best hope we have is that they will bounce back up, and that things will be all hunky-dory, happy and normal again. Back to business, as it were.
Keep dreaming!
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U:
100x → 0x → 0x → 0x → 100x
The next best-case scenario. The global financial fever will abate slowly, but it will. For sometime, everything appears to be standstill. After a while, the recovery will happen. Super-fast.“I’ll be back!” Terminator style.
Dream on.
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W:
100x → 0x → 10x → 0x → 30x → 0x → 100x
This will sound familiar. Let’s look at an example: We were the bottom and then, the liquor shops were opened by the powers-that-be. There was an immediate uptick in sales and hangovers. And an exponential rise in Covid cases! There was a definite upward blip. The liquor shops were quickly shut down or their timings severely moderated. And the blip came crashing down again.
It may go up again, slightly. And horror, it may come down again.
The W merry go-round!
— — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
L:
This is the scenario that brought this book out. This L is the HELL we need to prepare for. And to climb out of!
100x → 0x → 0x → 0x → 0x → 0x → 0x → 0x → 0x
The scenario L that nobody wants to talk about. The scenario whose name will not be uttered! Well, it is here.
What was once going for 100x, is now at 0x. We can hope and pray that we’ve hit rock bottom and that 0x is the new normal. That is the Scenario L. If you don’t accept it, it will be hell.
The flat part of the L is the new (ab)normal we need to get used to.
Ok. Then if x is what the customer is willing to pay, I cannot try to thrust my 10x solution. It just won’t work.
What then do I need to do to survive in L?
Read on.
This is part five of the series: Climb your way out hell: Outlier Marketing to overcome worst-case scenarios and grow your business
4. The entrepreneur’s hell: Part TWO
3. The entrepreneur’s hell: Part ONE
2. How to make a business plan in the face of the pandemic?
1. When well laid plans fail…
The full book is available on Amazon: Climb Your Way Out Of Hell
Pravin Shekar is an outlier marketer, parallel entrepreneur and a raconteur.
mic @ PravinShekar.com .
Pravin is the author of five books: Devil Does Care, Getting paid to speak, a Virtual Summit Playbook, Climb your way out of hell & a collection of travel pics/romantic poems!
http://tiny.cc/PravinShekarBooks
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