Simple model vs complex model — which one to use?

You might have heard Elon Musk talk about first principles or read Principles by Ray Dalio.

Principles help us comprehend the behaviors of a system. It this happens, then that happens. They help us understand…

90% chance of failure? Try 10 times

The evolutionary approach applies to work too.

The way to beat low probability is by either trusting your intuition and going narrow (2–3 attempts or choices) or being open to anything and going wide (10+).

Extreme push to a new height makes everything easier

When you’ve run a half-marathon or a full marathon, you’re not afraid of 5k.

When you’ve fasted for a day, you’re not stressed about skipping a meal.

Something difficult? Redefine your view

“Sometimes shifting your perspective is more powerful than being smart.”
 — Astro Teller, CEO of X

The very thing you see as boring or tiresome is something other people love.

Clarity through causality

A powerful person can pull the strings and have things taken care of.

But they have to know which strings to the pull. That comes from understanding how things work (people, technology, mind, body…) and then acting.

Why streak goals work

Two powerful motivators of behavior are loss aversion and consistency.

Loss aversion means we hate losing more than gaining. Loss leads to suffering. Suffering is bad.

What’s the first sign that you’re right?

Working on something with an uncertain result? How do you know it’s worth your time?

For businesses and projects, the goal is to eliminate risk as soon as possible.

Disrupt consistency with radical change

One of the principles of persuasion according to Cialdini is consistency.

Consistency means we like our future choices be consistent with our past choices. If we always choose vanilla ice cream, we’re unlikely to suddenly switch to…

BYOE — Bring Your Own Enthusiasm

I was tinkering with a pet coding project today and started having doubts about it.

Should I put in the effort? Shouldn’t I do something else? Is it worth the time?