The NFL Continuity Index: Part 5

Can past performance be a guarantee of future results in the NFL? Examining the continuity of the AFC North.

For more info on how continuity is measured, check out Part 1 of the Continuity Index, which also examined the NFC West. Part 2 of the Continuity Index covered the NFC South, Part 3 covered the NFC North, and Part 4 examined the NFC East.

In Part 5 of the Continuity Index we tackle our first AFC division: The AFC North. Here are the continuity totals for each team:

Steelers 90.7 out of 100
Bengals 83.3 out of 100
Ravens 66.9 out of 100
Browns 19.9 out of 100

And here is an in-depth breakdown and analysis of each team:

Pittsburgh Steelers: 90.7% Continuity

Coaches: (Years completed in position) Mike Tomlin HC (3+ Years) Todd Haley OC (3+ Years) Kieth Butler DC (1 Year) Continuity Score: 15.4 out of 20

QB & System: (Years on team and in system) Ben Roethlisberger (3+ years and in system) Continuity Score: 20 out of 20

Defensive Scheme: (Years in system) “Base 34” (3+ Years) Continuity Score: 20 out of 20

Offensive Line: 3+ year starters: (4) two-year starters: (1) one-year starters: (0) first year starter or position battle: (0) Continuity Score: 9 out of 10

Defensive Personnel : 3+ year starters: (5) two-year starters: (2) one-year starters: (3) first year starter or position battle: (1) Continuity Score: 7.3 out of 11

Top Skill Positions: Leading Rusher : Le’veon Bell (3+ Years) Leading Receiver: Antonio Brown (3+ Years) Continuity Score: 10 out of 10

Front Office: Kevin Colbert GM (3+ years) Continuity Score: 9 out of 9

Analysis:

There is a reason why “The Standard is The Standard” is the motto of the Pittsburgh Steelers: because no team is more emblematic of how continuity breeds success in the NFL than them. Can you believe that this will be Mike Tomlin’s 10th season as head coach? (And in Steelers coaching years, he’s still a rookie compared to Chuck Noll or Bill Cowher.) The Steelers have so much continuity that you can even count on very specific occurrences happening each season. Here are things that you and I both know will happen in 2017:

1. At least once this year, Ben Roethlisberger will miss a game with an injury and Landry Jones will make an appearance, making you want to rip up any betting slip where you’ve taken the Steelers
2. At least once a game, Ben Roethlisberger will look like he’s hurt but then come right back in and do some incredible play while still hobbling around, making you tape back together the betting slip you ripped up
3. Antonio Brown will do one amazingly dumb thing per season
4. Antonio Brown will still have a tremendous year
5. Le’Veon Bell will miss at least one game with an injury/suspension
6. Le’Veon Bell will still have a tremendous year
7. James Harrison will have another solid season and everyone will continue to overreact to it because of his age and his very public workout routine
8. The offense will explode at least once (probably against the Colts) and have a game where everything comes together
9. The defense will blow a lead at least once (probably against a bad team) and have a game where everything falls apart
10. They will score in dramatic fashion to beat the Ravens or Bengals
11. They will lose a game they should have won against the Ravens or Bengals
12. They will humiliate the Browns at least once
13. They will be humiliated by the Patriots at least once

The real problem for the Steelers lies in #13. How do they beat the Patriots? The Steelers have won the AFC three times during the “Patriots era,” but only because they avoided playing the Patriots in the playoffs each time- so that would be optimal. If they can’t avoid them, then the template is in the 2011 game they played: keep the ball out of Brady’s hands. The one time this decade the Steelers got the best of the Patriots, it was because they enjoyed a 2-to-1 time of possession margin and made a whopping 29 first downs. They also employed a rarity for a Steelers defense: they went press-man the whole game. It was because of that 2011 game that I was shocked to see the Steelers run their usual defense that gets shredded by the Pats in last year’s AFC championship game. (What’s the definition of insanity again?) And yes, it would be safe to say that they did get shredded. It was ugly, but hey, at least there was continuity! By all accounts, the Steelers didn’t trust their team to run man because they haven’t been drafting players that excel in man coverage in their secondary, which has been adrift for a few years now. It looks like they at least recognize their deficiencies in man coverage, but will it be enough? I don’t see it. The Patriots are not only just better, they also got better this year. I hate to say it, but if the Steelers plan on making the Super Bowl for a 4th time in the last 12 years, they better hope someone else takes out the Patriots for them.

Cincinnati Bengals: 83.3% Continuity

Coaches: (Years completed in position) Marvin Lewis HC (3+ Year) Ken Zampese OC (1 Year), Paul Guenther DC (3 Years) Continuity Score: 15.4 out of 20

QB & System: (Years on team and in system) Andy Dalton (3+ Years Both) Continuity Score: 20 out of 20

Defensive Scheme: (Years in system) “Base 43” (3+ Years) Continuity Score: 20 out of 20

Offensive Line: 3+ year starters: (2) two-year starters: (0) one-year starters: (2) first year starter or position battle: (1) Continuity Score: 5.3 out of 10

Defensive Personnel : 3+ year starters: (8) two-year starters: (1) one-year starters: () first year starter or position battle: (2) Continuity Score: 8.6 out of 11

Top Skill Positions: Leading Rusher : Joe Mixon? (Position Battle) Leading Receiver: A.J. Green (3+ Years) Continuity Score: 5 out of 10

Front Office: Mike Brown Owner/GM (3+ Years) Continuity Score: 9 out of 9

Analysis:

The Bengals clearly have a lot of continuity- but continuity can be looked at two ways. Does their high continuity mean that the 2017 Bengals can be expected to round back into form as a team that made the playoffs from 2009–2015, or does it mean that we are in for another disappointing season like 2016? My personal belief is that they will bounce back- there is just too much positive history here. I am even pegging this team as a sleeper to win the division, especially if Ben Roethlisberger misses extended time with an injury. (Paging Mr. Burfict! Please report for duty.) In fact, I think this could be the Bengals last, best chance before age fully takes it’s toll on the defensive side. As you can see above, they have 8 starters at 3+ years together, including all 4 starters in the secondary. While that continuity has it’s obvious benefits, there will come a time where the guys become an “old and slow” team (Remember this?) which counteracts the benefits of playing together. While I don’t expect this to happen this year, or all at once to all the veteran players, It is only a matter of time. Therefore, I wouldn’t expect this core group on defense to be playing together for much longer.

If age does catch up with the Bengals this year, I think the blame lands squarely with Mike Brown, who is one of the rare owners who shows loyalty to his players and coaches- maybe even to the detriment of his team at times. For example, I don’t think Adam Jones would be in the NFL right now if the Bengals didn’t show loyalty and personal compassion to a guy who has had more than his fair share of run-ins with the law. In this way, he has a lot in common with Jerry Jones, who not coincidentally, also acts as the GM for his team. I think there is something to this- owners who also act as a GM have more of a personal connection (good or bad) with their players. The same thing could be said about how they handle Jason Garrett and Marvin Lewis- two solid coaches who have had limited success in the NFL but are in no real jeopardy of losing their jobs due to who runs their respective teams.

While I wholeheartedly agree with the philosophy that allowing a coach to establish a culture is conducive to winning, Marvin Lewis has been coaching the Bengals since 2003, and they are 0–7 in the playoffs. At a certain point that record hangs like an albatross, and it becomes an added psychological hurdle that the team needs to overcome. If Mike Brown wasn’t such a loyal owner, he would have accepted that what’s best for the team is to move on from Marvin Lewis, which would free the Bengals from having to fight ghosts from their past. It’s hard enough to win in the NFL when you’re taking on one opponent, let alone battling the demons of past teams, so is it any wonder that the Bengals have the longest current streak without a playoff win in the NFL? At a certain point, this makes their inevitable playoff loss a self-fulfilling prophecy. And as long as Marvin Lewis is the coach, I see no reason why it wouldn’t happen yet again.

Baltimore Ravens: 66.9% Continuity

Coaches: (Years completed in position) John Harbaugh HC (3+ Years) Marty Mornhinweg OC (1 Year) Dean Pees DC (3+ Years) Continuity Score: 15.4 out of 20

QB & System: (Years on team and in system) Joe Flacco (3+Years & 1 in System) Continuity Score: 13.3 out of 20

Defensive Scheme: (Years in system) Hybrid 3–4 (3+ Years) Continuity Score: 20 out of 20

Offensive Line: 3+ year starters: (1) two-year starters: (0) one-year starters: (1) first year starter or position battle: (3) Continuity Score: 2.6 out of 10

Defensive Personnel : 3+ year starters: (4) two-year starters: (0) one-year starters: (3) first year starter or position battle: (4) Continuity Score: 5 out of 11

Top Skill Positions: Leading Rusher : Kenneth Dixon (Position Battle) Leading Receiver: Mike Wallace (1 Year) Continuity Score: 1.6 out of 10

Front Office: Ozzie Newsome GM (3+ Years) Continuity Score: 9 out of 9

Analysis:

It’s sort of a given with NFL pundits that Ozzie Newsome is the best GM in the NFL- just one of those things that’s accepted as fact. Bill Belichick is the best coach, Ozzie is the best GM. Now, I’m not going to try to argue with a straight face against Belichick. (Although if anyone is close to being as good as him, it’s John Harbaugh.) Ozzie though? I don’t know. If you’re only as good as your last draft, then I don’t think Ozzie Newsome is even cracking the top 10 here. Now the Ravens are still doing great in free agency (adding Mike Wallace and Eric Weddle were nice additions last year, and I bet Danny Woodhead and Tony Jefferson will be this year too), but the last couple of drafts have not infused the team with talent as in years past. Perriman and Maxx Williams have been busts so far, Correa and Kaufusi have not been impactful, and they have lost a lot of bright spots they did have to injuries. In fact this team has been crazily snake-bit this offseason- what did they do, hit an old gypsy with the team bus? Someone better keep Ronnie Stanley in bubble wrap on his days off, just to be sure.

I still can’t believe that the Ravens passed on O.J. Howard though. This was a once-in-a-decade-stars-have-aligned situation where a top 5 talent in the draft inexplicably and for no real reason drops to the teens. Considering Flacco’s love of TEs, the team’s need for a playmaker, and the Ravens well documented Crimson Tide player fetish, I was all ready to say: “Ozzie has done it again- that lucky bastard!” BUT NO. It was still an Alabama player of course, just not the best one. (No offense to Marlon Humphrey, but come on. Even Humphrey himself was surprised by the pick.) What happened here? Has anyone gotten to the bottom of this? I think we need to call for a special counsel to look into the matter- there’s clearly some collusion going on here.

All joking aside, what happened was likely simple, but also somewhat unforgivable: The Ravens drafted for need instead of the best player available. I have every reason to believe they regret it now, because in an ironic twist of fate, a couple of injuries and a suspension suddenly made tight end one of the biggest positions of need on the team. All they have left is 36 year old Ben Watson coming off a torn Achilles, Nick Boyle coming off a PED suspension, Maxx Williams coming off showing us nothing so far, and now street free agent Larry Donnell. Maybe, hopefully one of them will emerge- but O.J. Howard was the best do-it-all TE prospect we’ve seen in a decade or more. Newsome, a former do-it-all TE himself, passed on him. (To be fair, lots of teams did too. Why they did, I have no idea.) Not to go on and on about this, but if the Ravens do suffer another slump this year, and I think they will, we might have to start pointing a finger directly at the front office. That would have sounded absurd just three years ago, but as old Falcons coach Jerry Glanville used to say, the NFL stands for “Not For Long.”

While I may be giving a little criticism to the front office, I can’t praise the job John Harbaugh has done enough. He’s really right there with Belichick, and who else but the Ravens have really given the Pats a tough time in the playoffs? Let’s face it: The Patriots run rings around the rest of the league, but they don’t have their usual sizable edge in coaching when they face the Ravens. (Unless you count the AFC Divisional game where the Patriots shifted to 4D intergalactic chess mode and pulled out every trick in the book, from crazy formations to WR passes in order to squeak out a win at home. I still can’t believe all that really happened- It was like someone switched the Patriots to “All-Madden” in the second half.) With Harbaugh running things, the Ravens will always be well coached and a formidable opponent- I just feel like they may be a little adrift in terms of offensive identity. After all, who do you think threw the most passes in the NFL in 2016? (Ok, you’re going to say “Joe Flacco” here because that must be the reason I’m asking you this now, right? Well you couldn’t be more wrong! Drew Brees led the NFL with 673 attempts. Joe Flacco was only 2nd with a measly 672 attempts. See, I bet you feel stupid now, don’t you?)

The offensive line is also not the strength it once was for the Ravens- in fact it’s become a true liability. They will have three new starters this year after never fully recovering from losing Osemele last year. Couple that with the lack of a real dynamic running back, and it’s easy to see Flacco throwing the ball as much again this year- unless he throws less because he misses some games because oh-by-the-way, he has a bad back. Yikes. Well, back injuries are fine. They haven’t been known to be career threatening or anything. Um…what was Kaepernick’s phone number again?

“Even if Flacco gets hurt, the Ravens will be fine. We have Ozzie Newsome!” -Ravens Fans

Cleveland Browns: 19.9% Continuity

Myles Garrett: The next Bruce Smith, or the next Aundray Bruce?

Coaches: (Years completed in position) Hue Jackson HC & Playcaller (1 Year) Gregg Williams DC (First Year) Continuity Score: 3.3 out of 20

QB & System: (Years on team and in system) Cody Kessler? (Position battle & in System) Continuity Score: 0 out of 20

Defensive Scheme: (Years in system) Base 43 (First Year) Continuity Score: 0 out of 20

Offensive Line: 3+ year starters: (2) two-year starters: (0) one-year starters: (0) first year starter or position battle: (3) Continuity Score: 4 out of 10

Defensive Personnel : 3+ year starters: (2) two-year starters: (1) one-year starters: (6) first year starter or position battle: (2) Continuity Score: 4.6 out of 11

Top Skill Positions: Leading Rusher : Isaiah Crowell (3+ Years) Leading Receiver: Corey Coleman (Position Battle) Continuity Score: 5 out of 10

Front Office: Sashi Brown GM (1 Year) Continuity Score: 3 out of 9

Analysis:

The Browns are headed into year 17 of their rebuilding phase- which sounds like a joke until you realize that there is way too much truth to it. Probably a more apt analogy would be to say that the 2017 Browns are ready to rollout version 2.7.1 with the Myles Garrett patch. Will this be the year we start to start to see dividends pay out from the new regime’s strategy? As their continuity score eludes to, no one really knows. They could definitely struggle, or the young talent could come together and they could win 6–7 games, not finish last in the division (Sorry Ravens), and restock the team reminiscent to how the 1–15 Cowboys won the Super Bowl only three years later. The only difference is, when the Cowboys had the chance to draft Troy Aikman, they didn’t trade down.

Much has been said about the Browns’ embrace of advanced analytics in deciding personnel, and it makes sense in a lot of ways: The NFL draft is really just a big lottery, so the idea is to have as many tickets as possible is a smart one. However, if you equate draft picks to scratch-off cards, then having the #2 pick in the draft and trading away the ability to draft Carson Wentz as your cornerstone in the most important position on the team for more picks was the equivalent to giving away a winning ticket in the hopes that the handful of unscratched cards you receive in return will win you more.

I think trading down last year had a ripple affect- not only were the Browns rudderless in 2016 (leading them to receive the #1 overall pick in 2017), but I believe public outcry over trading their #1 pick again coupled with other teams knowing that the Browns want quantity over quality meant that the value in trading away the #1 pick never materialized for the Browns. Instead, had they kept Wentz, they would have a solid NFL QB on their roster going into year two of their system. Now let’s say for argument sake that Wentz didn’t play a down for the Browns in 2016, therefore the Browns were still the same 1–15 team last year and ended up with the #1 pick. Trading that pick would almost assuredly have earned them the same bounty, if not more than what they got for trading away the pick for Wentz. So in essence, they could have had Carson Wentz and the same amount of picks, or Myles Garrett. Which player would you rather have? (And if they didn’t trade down at all, it’s possible they could have both players right now. Let that sink in.)

Instead, I think the Browns were forced to take Myles Garrett, not only based on the confluence of events I just described, but also because his talent is just so alluring. However, you put on the tape of him, and for every splash play you will see a handful of embarrassing non-effort plays. That would concern the hell out of me if I’m Hue Jackson, and we know for sure DC Gregg Williams isn’t going to put up with it. This scenario has boom or bust written all over it. How will Garrett handle having his ass chewed out by the ultra-intense Williams? (If you haven’t seen it yet, he puts on a show in this year’s “All or Nothing.”) I can only assume since he got away with taking so many plays off, Myles was coddled quite a bit as a star recruit in college- but I would be shocked if he got away with anything in Cleveland. That being said, I always root for guys to reach their full potential, and I hope the Browns can bring it out of Garrett. If they do, he could be really good, right away. In fact, I think I have a perfect comp for him: Jevon Kearse. If they don’t, then I wouldn’t be shocked if he ended up being Courtney Brown all over again. (Sorry to bring that up Browns fans. Too soon?)

So next up is Part 6, where I take on the AFC South- which means America’s #1 Jaguars fan will finally have a reason to get out of bed! If you haven’t already, here are the links to the first 4 parts so you can catch up on the NFC West, South, North, and East. Please follow me on twitter as I tweet out links to all my new Medium posts as soon as they are published, and don’t be shy about contacting me if you like what I’m doing, or if you think I got something wrong- After all, if it will make the continuity index better, I’m all for it. Thanks again!