Grading the Summer of 2024’s Biggest Football Transfers (So Far) Pt 6
El Cholo improves his defense, Leipzig bring back a key cog, Arsenal sell an academy product + more of the latest deals.
At this point, the intro is simple. Teams make transfers; I make grades. Let’s dive into the latest batch.
Check out previous stories in this series:
Part 1 (Mbappé, Palhinha + More)
Part 2 (Luiz, Olise, Thuram + More)
Part 3 (Zirkzee, Savinho, Onana + More)
Part 4 (Yoro, Calafiori, ASM + More)
Part 5 (Soulé, En-Nesyri, Diaby + More)
Robin Le Normand — Real Sociedad to Atlético Madrid — €34.5 M
The outbound fee is the second biggest ever for Sociedad (Isak, €70M), and though they probably could have gotten a little more, this is not far off the maximum fee Le Normand would demand (so long as major EPL clubs weren’t interested and artificially increasing the price). The only concern I have with this deal for Imanol is that, with a Europa League campaign on the way, his squad looks short of cover as it stands. That said, they’ve given themself the money to go and find 2–3 suitable starters who can compete at that level, and they should be in good shape so long as they act quickly. The ideal scenario is probably Le Normand staying as he’s been their best defender, but they’ve gotten a good fee and moved him on early — allowing time for proper cover to be brought in before the window closes at the end of August. This earns Sociedad an A- for now, but some clever reinvestment of this cash could make it seem even better.
From a buyer’s perspective, I’ll give Atléti an A+ for this deal. Even if Le Normand is at the bottom end of the performances he’s shown over the last 3 seasons in particular, that’s still good enough to be a starter for a top four contender in La Liga. If he plays to his best level, he can be one of the key players that push this club back to the top of the La Liga table and, most definitely, makes them a bigger factor in next season’s Champions League. Given he’s just 27 and there will be no cultural jolt from moving just a few hours south nor a huge competitive jump moving from a Europa League club (and European Championship winning side) to the Champions League, I see no obvious reasons why there would be a big drop off in Le Normand’s performance. If anything, I bet Simeone will get Le Normand’s best football yet at the Metropolitano. If that’s the case, Le Normand is comfortably a €50M player who — given their obvious concerns with depth in the same position — would be the envy of city, and potential title, rivals Real. Even if Le Normand only ends up being as good as his average level over the last 3 seasons, he’s worth this fee. The risk is limited, and this is a statement signing for Atléti.
Xavi Simons — PSG to RB Leipzig — Loan
When it comes to Simons, I’m not sure even PSG know what they’re doing with the player. Luis Enrique’s side seemingly lack a true connector between the midfielder and the front three (though Vitinha has steadily improved in this respect), and Simons is arguably the best winger (certainly the second best depending on how you feel about Dembélé) the club employs as well. Thus, I’m a bit lost for words trying to explain why there’s always such an emphasis on pushing Simons towards the door after back-to-back standout spells in the Netherlands and Germany. Yet, the risk of his value decreasing in the the next 12 months is limited; so, I suppose there’s not too much risk. In any case, the choice to continue watching one of the best young players in Europe excel for other Champions League sides will always be a bit of a head scratcher so I give PSG a confused B.
Meanwhile, the deal earns a quick A for Leipzig. Simons is one of the best players available on the market, and they likely don’t have the resources or long-term sporting project to sign a player of this caliber permanently. Another season on loan means they maintain the majority of last season’s core, build some extra continuity and approach the new season with real thoughts of winning the league if Bayern struggle again and Leverkusen slip backwards. The only marginal knock on their grade comes from the fact they’re essentially developing PSG’s investment with no chance to profit in the future while subsequently creating a big hole in their team for 2025–26 and beyond. Regardless, I think that’s a trade-off you accept for a player of this caliber. Not to look too far ahead, but expect Manchester City to be a big player for Simons next summer with De Bruyne out of contract.
Quick Hits
Artem Dovbyk (Girona [A+] to Roma [B], €35 M):
Just as with the deals for Matías Soulé and Enzo Le Fée, I love Roma’s ambition and the willingness of the ownership to invest in the positions where Daniele De Rossi needs more. However, this one is a huge gamble given Dovbyk has only one highly productive campaign in a top 5 league under his belt (plus a strong Conference League campaign the year before). He’s a fantastic finisher who, when he gets the ball in the box, always feels likely to score, and he’s also impressively nimble for a center forward who is on the bigger side at 6'2.5" and brings the aerial abilities you expect at that size. Thanks to his poaching abilities, Dovbyk will fit with any team; so, there should be no issues with integrating him in Rome either. With the price a quality center forward goes for, I’m not sure there would’ve been too many other options for Roma that bring the level of potential that the Ukranian does after his last two seasons. If it doesn’t pan out, this will seem like a huge waste of money, but these are the risks you have to take if you want to move up the pecking order as one of the Europa League-tier teams in Europe’s biggest leagues. For Girona, this is a rare instance where they — not Man City — profit off of the last few seasons’ success. They’ll miss him dearly in the Champions League, but these are the sales they expected coming into the summer.
Emile Smith Rowe (Arsenal [A] to Fulham [B-], €32 M):
I remember thinking when Arsenal made Martin Ødegaard’s move from Real Madrid permanent that it was unnecessary as I figured Smith Rowe would wind up the better player, but that obviously has not been the case. Every transfer has an element of paying for what the player is versus what they have been or can become, but this deal feels too heavily weighted towards the latter. Even at his top level, Smith Rowe may only just live up to this kind of price tag (there’s another €8M in potential incentives) — putting a lot of pressure on him to come in and succeed quickly after a couple of years of limited impact. All that risk taken into consideration, he’s also young and English. The resale value could be huge if he finds a level even his best days at Arsenal didn’t demonstrate, and Fulham should give him the playing time needed to extract everything from his game. As it stands, Fulham’s squad looks set across the board with only a replacement for João Palhinha (and, in my opinion, an improvement at centre forward) needed to strengthen the line-up. So long as they’ve a semi-affordable replacement for the Portuguese in mind, they can afford to take gambles like this with the money they’ve profited from his sale to Bayern. Players of Smith Rowe’s top level won’t be available to them often, and I applaud the ambition even if it feels highly risky. Arsenal will miss the quality depth he provides but should be able to replace his output with a fraction of this fee–especially given Ødegaard’s virtually undroppable status.
Ismaïla Sarr (Marseille [B+] to Crystal Palace [B+], €15 M):
Sarr represents an interesting addition for Crystal Palace in the sense that he allows them to continue doing what they did so well in the second half of last season under Oliver Glasner— play attractive, high-scoring football. He’s more of an out-and-out wide player than the multi-dimensional Michael Olise was; so, Palace may suffer to replace some of that central creativity, but that shouldn’t be an issue as long as Eberechi Eze is still in the team (though his days at the club may too be numbered). One thing Palace won’t struggle to do with Sarr is move the ball up the field, and that should contribute to creating more of the exciting and highly productive transition situations they thrived in a season ago. Because he’s 26 and has already made the jump from France to the Premier League before, the room for upward growth and improvement feels more limited, but we might’ve said the same about a player like Jean-Philippe Mateta who, for all intents and purposes, seemed to have stalled out six months ago before Glasner’s arrival helped revive his Palace career. With the right guidance and bedding into the team, Sarr should be a useful starter at worst, and those aren’t easy to come by for EPL clubs at this price. Marseille make a marginal profit on last summer’s purchase and clear room for Roberto De Zerbi to build the squad in his vision with depth of lesser consequence given the absence of European football at the Vélodrome this term.
Yan Couto (Man City [A+] to Borussia Dortmund [B+], €25 M):
According to reports, City were initially demanding €30M+ (or even €40M+ depending on which papers you believe) for Couto, and I think any club that offered that type of fee would’ve been in a bit over their head. That said, I like the gamble more for Dortmund at this price. I still think it might be just a bit high for a right-back that, in many respects, still hasn't fully proven himself as an actual defender, but there’s no doubt about the impact that he can have going forward. Because of the platform that Dortmund has as maybe the most successful “selling” club in all of Europe, I see an obvious window of opportunity for Couto to play well and be sold for twice this fee in 2–3 years’ time. If that winds up being the case, they’ll look pretty smart in the long run. For now, he’s an exciting addition who’s far from a traffic cone defensively, but I’m not sure how much he’ll shore up a Dortmund backline that have had the occasional defensive wobble even during their best moments in recent seasons. For Man City, this is another great profit (€19M) made largely off of Girona’s developmental work. I’d be curious to see if there’s any buyback (or sell on) clauses as Kyle Walker is not getting any younger and the futures of Issa Kaboré and João Cancelo seem uncertain.
